Dr. Valentina Krysanova

Ecohydrological modelling at the river basin and regional scales, climate and land use change impact assessment

Areas of scientific interest: hydrological and eco-hydrological modelling; water quality modelling; climate change impact assessment for river discharge, hydrological extremes and crop yield; evaluation of climate impact uncertainties; land use change impacts on hydrological processes in river basins; intercomparison of hydrological impact models; evaluation of hydrological model performance.

I coordinate, together with Fred Hattermann, Water-Regional sector in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP)



Working Group

Curriculum Vitae

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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2515
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam

Peer-reviewed articles 2015 - 2020



Gao, Ch.,  Su, B.,  Krysanova, V.,  Zha, Q.,  Chen, C.,  Luo, G.,  Zeng, X.,  Huang, J.,  Xiong, M.,  Zhang, L.,  Jiang, T., 2020. A 439-year simulated daily discharge dataset (1861-2299) for the upper Yangtze River, China, Earth System Science Data , 12 (1), 387-402, DOI: 10.5194/essd-12-387-2020

Stefanova, A.Hesse, C.Krysanova, V.Volk, M.  2019. Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Four European Lagoon Catchments, Environmental Management, 64 (6), 701-720, DOI: 10.1007/S00267-019-01188-1

Wortmann, M.Bolch, T.Su, B.Krysanova, V.,  2019. An efficient representation of glacier dynamics in a semi-distributed hydrological model to bridge glacier and river catchment scales, Journal of Hydrology, DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2019.03.006

Didovets, I., Krysanova, V., Buerger, G., Snizhko, S., Balabukh, V., Bronstert, A., 2019. Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region, Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, 22, 100590, DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002


Krysanova V., Ch. Donnelly, A. Gelfan, D. Gerten, B. Arheimer, F. Hattermann and Z. W. Kundzewicz, 2018. How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63, 5, 696–720, DOI:  10.1080/02626667.2018.1446214

Wortmann, M., Bolch, T., Menz, C., Tong, J., Krysanova, V., 2018. Comparison and Correction of High-Mountain Precipitation Data Based on Glacio-Hydrological Modeling in the Tarim River Headwaters (High Asia). J. Hydrometeor. 19, 777–801.

Lobanova, A., Liersch, S., Nunes, J.P., Didovets, I., Stagl, J., Huang, S., Koch, H., Rivas López, M. del R., Maule, C.F., Hattermann, F., Krysanova, V., 2018. Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins. Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies 18, 15–30. doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.05.003

Wang, XY; Yang, T; Yong, B; Krysanova, V; Shi, PF; Li, ZY; Zhou, XD, 2018. Impacts of climate change on flow regime and sequential threats to riverine ecosystem in the source region of the Yellow River, Environmental Earth Sciences, 77(12), 465, doi: 10.1007/s12665-018-7628-7

Huang, S., Wortmann, M., Duethmann, D., Menz, C., Shi, F., Zhao, C., Su, B., Krysanova, V., 2018. Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China. Agricultural Water Management, 203, 207–224, DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2018.03.004.

Huang, Sh.;  Kumar, R.;  Rakovec, O.;  Aich, V.;  Wang, X.;  Samaniego, L.;  Liersch, S.;  Krysanova, V., 2018. Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level, Environmental Research Letters, 13 (12), 124005, doi  10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b

Kundzewicz, Z. W.;  Krysanova, V.;  Benestad, R. E.;  Hov, O.;  Piniewski, M.;  Otto, I. M, 2018. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources, Environmental Science and Policy, 79 (1-8), DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.008


Frieler, K.;  Lange, S.;  Piontek, F.;  Reyer, Ch.;  Schewe, J.;  Warszawski, L.;  … Krysanova, V.; et al. 2017. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 degrees C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development,  10 (12), 4321-4345, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Lillebo, A.I.;  Stalnacke, P.;  Gooch, G.D.;  Krysanova, V.;  Bielecka, M., 2017. Pan-European management of coastal lagoons: A science-policy-stakeholder interface perspective, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 198, 648-656, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.008

Chen, Jing;  Gao, Chao;  Zeng, Xiaofan;  Xiong, Ming;  Wang, Yanjun;  Jing, Cheng;  Krysanova, Valentina;  Huang, Jinlong;  Zhao, Na;  Su, Buda, 2017. Assessing changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin: Approach by using multiple- GCMs and hydrological models, Quaternary International, 453, 63-73, DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2017.01.017

Krysanova V., T. Vetter, S. Eisner, Sh. Huang, I. Pechlivanidis,.M. Strauch, A. Gelfan, R. Kumar, V. Aich, B. Arheimer, A. Chamorro, A. van Griensven, D. Kundu, A. Lobanova, V.Mishra, S. Plötner, J. Reinhardt, O. Seidou, X.Wang, M. Wortmann, X. Zeng and F. F Hattermann, 2017. Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide — a synthesis, Environ. Res. Letters, 12, 105002, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359

Krysanova V., F. F. Hattermann, 2017. Intercomparison of climate change impacts in 12 large river basins: overview of methods and summary of results, Climatic Change, 141, 3, 363-379, DOI 10.1007/s10584-017-1919-y

Huang Sh., R. Kumar, M. Flörke, T. Yang, Y. Hundecha, Ph. Kraft, Ch. Gao, A. Gelfan, S. Liersch, A. Lobanova, M. Strauch, F. van Ogtrop, J. Reinhardt, U. Haberlandt, V. Krysanova, 2017. Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide, Climatic Change, 141, 3, 381-397, DOI 0.1007/s10584-016-1841-8

Eisner S., M. Flörke, A. Chamorro, P. Daggupati, C. Donnelly, J. Huang, Y. Hundecha, H. Koch, A. Kalugin, I. Krylenko, V. Mishra, M. Piniewski, L. Samaniego, O. Seidou, M. Wallner & V. Krysanova, 2017. An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins, Climatic Change, 141, 3, 401-417, DOI 0.1007/s10584-016-1844-5

Vetter T., J. Reinhardt, M. Flörke, A. van Griensven, F. Hattermann, Sh. Huang, H. Koch, I. G. Pechlivanidis, S. Plötner, O. Seidou, B. Su, R. W. Vervoort & V. Krysanova, 2017. Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins, Climatic Change, 141:419–433, DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1794-y

Hattermann F.F., V. Krysanova, S. N. Gosling, R. Dankers, P. Daggupati, C. Donnelly, M. Flörke, Sh. Huang, Y. Motovilov, S. Buda, T. Yang, C. Müller, G. Leng, Q. Tang, F. T. Portmann, S. Hagemann, D. Gerten, Y. Wada, Y. Masaki, T. Alemayehu, Y. Satoh, L. Samaniego, 2017. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins, Climatic Change, 141:561–576, DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4

Kundzewicz Z.W., V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, Sh. Kanae, F. Hattermann, Sh. Huang, P.C.D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P. Driessen, P. Matczak, Ph. Quevauviller and H.J. Schellnhuber, 2017. Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making, Hydrol. Sci. Journal, 62, 1, 1-14, DOI 10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398

Lobanova A, Liersch S, Tabara D, Koch H, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V. 2017. Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: a scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River. Journal of Hydrology, 548, 436-447.

Didovets I, Lobanova A, Bronstert A, Snizhko S, Maule CF, Krysanova V. 2017. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling. Water, (9) DOI:10.3390/w9030204


Lobanova, A.;  Koch, H.;  Liersch, S.;  Hattermann, F.F.;  Krysanova, V., 2016. Impacts of changing climate on the hydrology and hydropower production of the Tagus River basin, Hydrological Processes, 30(26), 5039-5052, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10966

Krysanova, V., Kundzewicz, Z.W., and Piniewski, M., 2016. Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources. Chapter 148. In: V. Singh, ed. Handbook of applied hydrology. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Hartmann, H.; Snow, J.; Stein, S.; Su, B.; Zhai, J.; Jiang, T.; Krysanova, V.; Kundzewicz, Z. W., 2016. Predictors of Precipitation for Improved Water Resources Management in the Tarim River Basin: Creating a Seasonal Forecast Model, Journal of Arid Environments, 125, 31-42, DOI 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.09.010

Hesse, C. and V. Krysanova, 2016. Modelling Climate and Management Change Impacts on Water Quality and In-Stream Processes in the Elbe River Basin, Water, 8, 40; doi:10.3390/w8020040


Milly, P.C.D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R.M. Hirsch, Z. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, R.J. Stouffer, M.D. Dettinger, V. Krysanova, 2015. On Critiques of “Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management?” Water Resources Research, 51 (9), 7785-7789, DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017408.

Krysanova, V., M. White, 2015. Advances in water resources assessment with SWAT - an overview. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(5), 771-783. DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2015.1029482

Krysanova, V.;  Srinivasan, R., 2015. Assessment of climate and land use change impacts with SWAT, Regional Environmental Change,  15 (3), 431-434, DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0742-5

Krysanova, V., F. Hattermann, Sh. Huang, C. Hesse, T. Vetter, S. Liersch, H. Koch and Z. W. Kundzewicz, 2015. Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 60(4): 606-635.

Krysanova V., M. Wortmann, T. Bolch, B. Merz, D. Düthmann, J. Walter, Sh. Huang, T. Jiang, B. Su, Z. Kundzewicz, 2015. Analysis of current trends in climate parameters, river discharge and glaciers in the Aksu River basin (Central Asia). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60 (4), 566-590, DOI:10.1080/02626667.2014.925559

Rumbaur C., N. Thevs, M. Disse, M. Ahlheim, A. Brieden, B. Cyffka, D. Duethmann, T. Feike, O. Frör, P. Gärtner, Ü. Halik, J. Hill, M. Hinnenthal, P. Keilholz, B. Kleinschmit, V. Krysanova, M. Kuba, S. Mader, C. Menz, H. Othmanli, S. Pelz, M. Schroeder, T. F. Siew, V. Stender, K. Stahr, F. M. Thomas, M. Welp, M. Wortmann, X. Zhao, X. Chen, T. Jiang, J. Luo, H. Yimit, R. Yu, X. Zhang and C. Zhao, 2015. Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River in North-Western China under Conditions of Climate Change. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 83–107, doi:10.5194/esd-6-83-2015

Stefanova, A.; Hesse, C.; Krysanova, V., 2015. Combined impacts of medium-term socio-economic changes and climate change on water resources in a managed Mediterranean catchment. Water 7(4), pp. 1538-1567, DOI: 10.3390/w7041538

Hesse, C.; Stefanova, A.; Krysanova, V., 2015. Comparison of water flows in four European lagoon catchments under a set of future climate scenarios. Water 7(2), pp. 716-746, DOI: 10.3390/w7020716

Stefanova, A.; Krysanova, V.; Hesse, C.; Lillebø, A., 2015. Climate change impact assessment on water inflow to a coastal lagoon: Ria de Aveiro watershed, Portugal. Hydrological Sciences Journal 60(5-6), pp. 929-948, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.983518

Hesse, C.; Krysanova, V.; Stefanova, A.; Bialecka, M.; Domnin, D. 2015. Assessment of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality of the multi-river Vistula Lagoon catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(5-6), pp. 890-911, DOI: 10.1080/02626667. 2014.967247

Wang, Xiaoyan;  Yang, Tao;  Krysanova, Valentina;  Yu, Zhongbo, 2015. Assessing the impact of climate change on flood in an alpine catchment using multiple hydrological models, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 29 (8), 2143-2158, DOI: 10.1007/s00477-015-1062-0

Vetter, T., S. Huang, V. Aich, T. Yang, X. Wang, V. Krysanova, and F. Hattermann, 2015. Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents. Earth Syst. Dynamics, 6, 17-43, 2015, doi:10.5194/esd-6-17-2015 

Kundzewicz Z.W., B. Merz, S. Vorogushyn, H. Hartmann, D. Duethmann, M. Wortmann, Sh. Huang, B. Su, T. Jiang and V. Krysanova, 2015. Analysis of changes in climate and river discharge with focus on seasonal runoff predictability in the Aksu River Basin. Environmental Earth Sciences. 73:501-516, DOI 10.1007/s12665-014-3137-5.

Huang S., V. Krysanova, B. Su and J. Zhai, 2015. Impact of intensive irrigation activities on river discharge under agricultural scenarios in the semi-arid Aksu river basin, northwest China, Water Resources Management, 29(3): 945-959.DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0853-2

Huang S., Krysanova V., Hattermann F.F. 2015. Projections of climate change impacts on floods and droughts in Germany using an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Reg. Environ. Change 15(3):461-473. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0606-z

Yang, Tao;  Zhou, Xudong;  Yu, Zhongbo;  Krysanova, Valentina;  Wang, Bo, 2015. Drought projection based on a hybrid drought index using Artificial Neural Networks, Hydrological Processes, 29 (11), 2635-2648, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10394

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