Dr. Michael Pahle

Dr Michael Pahle is head of the working group “Climate and Energy Policy” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He holds a PhD in economics from TU Berlin. His research focuses on emission trading systems, public support for carbon pricing, and regulatory frameworks to achieve net-zero. He is Principle Investigator on “European Climate and Energy Policy” in the BMBF Ariadne Project, Germany’s largest social science Energiewende research project.  Based on his research, Michael advises the German government and parliament, the EU Commission and the EU Parliament on the development, reform and extension of emission trading. In that capacity he collaborates with leading think tanks in the EU, including the European University Institute based in Florenz and Bruegel based in Brussels. Furthermore, he is a member of the Global Climate Policy Partnership, a US-based global network of research institutions to help major economies and businesses achieve ambitious climate goals. Michael’s work and views on climate policy have been covered in leading national and international media outlets, including FAZ, Spiegel, Süddeutsche, Zeit,  Handelsblatt, El País, Politiken,  Euractiv, Financial Times, Bloomberg, New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal.

1. Lonergan, K. E., Egli, F., Osorio, S., Sansavini, G., Pahle, M., Schmidt, T. S., & Steffen, B. (2023). Improving the representation of cost of capital in energy system models. Joule. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.02.004
2. Pahle, M. (2023). Pricing carbon for a fair and effective low-carbon road transport transition in the EU. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.12.005
3. Quemin, S., & Pahle, M. (2022). Financials threaten to undermine the functioning of emissions markets. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01560-w
4. Frondel, M., Gerster, A., Kaestner, K., Pahle, M., Schwarz, A., Singhal, P., & Sommer, S. (2022). Das Wärme- und Wohnen-Panel zur Analyse des Wärmesektors: Ergebnisse der ersten Erhebung aus dem Jahr 2021. Zeitschrift Für Energiewirtschaft, 46(3), 175–193. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-022-00328-1
5. Perino, G., Willner, M., Quemin, S., & Pahle, M. (2022). The European Union Emissions Trading System Market Stability Reserve: Does It Stabilize or Destabilize the Market? Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16(2), 338–345. https://doi.org/10.1086/721015
6. Sommer, S., Mattauch, L., & Pahle, M. (2022). Supporting carbon taxes: The role of fairness. Ecological Economics, 195, 107359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107359.
7. Singhal, P., Pahle, M., Kalkuhl, M., Levesque, A., Sommer, S., & Berneiser, J. (2022). Beyond good faith: Why evidence-based policy is necessary to decarbonize buildings cost-effectively in Germany. Energy Policy, 169, 113191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113191
8. Frondel, M., Helmers, V., Mattauch, L., Pahle, M., Sommer, S., Schmidt, C. M., & Edenhofer, O. (2022). Akzeptanz der CO2-Bepreisung in Deutschland: Die große Bedeutung einer Rückverteilung der Einnahmen. Perspektiven Der Wirtschaftspolitik. https://doi.org/10.1515/pwp-2021-0050
9. Pahle, M., Tietjen, O., Osorio, S., Egli, F., Steffen, B., Schmidt, T. S., & Edenhofer, O. (2022). Safeguarding the energy transition against political backlash to carbon markets. Nature Energy, 7(3), 290–296. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-00984-0
10. Tietjen, O., Lessmann, K., & Pahle, M. (2021). Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion. Resource and Energy Economics, 63, 101214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2020.101214
11. Osorio, S., Tietjen, O., Pahle, M., Pietzcker, R. C., & Edenhofer, O. (2021). Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets. Energy Policy, 158(May 2020), 112530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112530
12. Pahle, M., Schaeffer, R., Pachauri, S., Eom, J., Awasthy, A., Chen, W., di Maria, C., Jiang, K., He, C., Portugal-Pereira, J., Safonov, G., & Verdolini, E. (2021). The crucial role of complementarity, transparency and adaptability for designing energy policies for sustainable development. Energy Policy, 159, 112662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112662
13. Flachsland, C., Pahle, M., Burtraw, D., Edenhofer, O., Elkerbout, M., Fischer, C., Tietjen, O., & Zetterberg, L. (2020). How to avoid history repeating itself: the case for an EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) price floor revisited. Climate Policy, 20(1), 133–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1682494
14. Gambardella, C., Pahle, M., & Schill, W.-P. (2020). Do Benefits from Dynamic Tariffing Rise? Welfare Effects of Real-Time Retail Pricing Under Carbon Taxation and Variable Renewable Electricity Supply. Environmental and Resource Economics, 75(1), 183–213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-019-00393-0
15. Osorio, S., Pietzcker, R. C., Pahle, M., & Edenhofer, O. (2020). How to deal with the risks of phasing out coal in Germany. Energy Economics, 87, 104730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104730
16. Steffen, B., Egli, F., Pahle, M., & Schmidt, T. S. (2020). Navigating the Clean Energy Transition in the COVID-19 Crisis. Joule, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.011
17. Leipprand, A., Flachsland, C., & Pahle, M. (2020). Starting low, reaching high? Sequencing in EU climate and energy policies. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 37, 140–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2020.08.006
18. Schmidt, T. S., Steffen, B., Egli, F., Pahle, M., Tietjen, O., & Edenhofer, O. (2019). Adverse effects of rising interest rates on sustainable energy transitions. Nature Sustainability, 2(9), 879–885. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0375-2
19. Pahle, M., Burtraw, D., Flachsland, C., Kelsey, N., Biber, E., Meckling, J., Edenhofer, O., & Zysman, J. (2018). Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency. Nature Climate Change, 8(10), 861–867. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0287-6
20. Gambardella, C., & Pahle, M. (2018). Time-varying electricity pricing and consumer heterogeneity: Welfare and distributional effects with variable renewable supply. Energy Economics, 76, 257–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.08.020
21. Schwerhoff, G., Kornek, U., Lessmann, K., & Pahle, M. (2017). Leadership in climate change mitigation: Consequences and incentives. Journal of Economic Surveys. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12203
22. Schill, W.-P., Pahle, M., & Gambardella, C. (2017). Start-up costs of thermal power plants in markets with increasing shares of variable renewable generation. Nature Energy, 2(6). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.50
23. Leipprand, A., Flachsland, C., & Pahle, M. (2017). Advocates or cartographers? Scientific advisors and the narratives of German energy transition. Energy Policy, 102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.021
24. Leipprand, A., Flachsland, C., & Pahle, M. (2017). Energy transition on the rise: discourses on energy future in the German parliament. Innovation, 30(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/13511610.2016.1215241
25. Joas, F., Pahle, M., Flachsland, C., & Joas, A. (2016). Which goals are driving the Energiewende? Making sense of the German Energy Transformation. Energy Policy, 95, 42–51. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516301719
26. Steinbacher, K., & Pahle, M. (2016). Leadership and the Energiewende: German Leadership by Diffusion. Global Environmental Politics, 16(4), 70–89. https://doi.org/10.1162/GLEP_a_00377
27. Tietjen, O., Pahle, M., & Fuss, S. (2016). Investment risks in power generation: A comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets. Energy Economics, 58, 174–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.005
28. Pahle, M., Schill, W.-P., Gambardella, C., & Tietjen, O. (2016). Renewable energy support, Negative prices, and real-Time pricing. Energy Journal, 37(SpecialIssue3). https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.37.SI3.mpah
29. Pahle, M., Pachauri, S., & Steinbacher, K. (2016). Can the Green Economy deliver it all? Experiences of renewable energy policies with socio-economic objectives. Applied Energy, 179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.073
30. Nahmmacher, P., Schmid, E., Pahle, M., & Knopf, B. (2016). Strategies against shocks in power systems – An analysis for the case of Europe. Energy Economics, 59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.002
31. Pahle, M., & Schweizerhof, H. (2016). Time for Tough Love: Towards Gradual Risk Transfer to Renewables in Germany. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.mpah
32. Knopf, B., Pahle, M., Kondziella, H., Joas, F., Edenhofer, O., & Bruckner, T. (2014). Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out: Sensitivities and Impacts on Electricity Prices and CO2 Emissions. Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, 3, 89–105. https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.3.1.bkno
33. Schmid, E., Pahle, M., & Knopf, B. (2013). Renewable electricity generation in Germany: A meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios. Energy Policy, 61, 1151–1163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.105
34. Edenhofer, O., Hirth, L., Knopf, B., Pahle, M., Schlömer, S., Schmid, E., & Ueckerdt, F. (2013). On the economics of renewable energy sources. Energy Economics, 40, S12–S23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.015
35. Pahle, M., Lessmann, K., Edenhofer, O., & Bauer, N. (2013). Investments in imperfect power markets under carbon pricing: A case study based analysis. Energy Journal, 34(4). https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.34.4.10
36. Pahle, M., Fan, L., & Schill, W. P. (2011). How emission certificate allocations distort fossil investments: The German example. Energy Policy, 39(4), 1975–1987.
37. Pahle, M. (2010). Germany’s dash for coal: Exploring drivers and factors. Energy Policy, 38(7), 3431–3442.

• Quemin, S., Pahle, M.  (R&R).Financials threaten to undermine the functioning of emissions markets. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3985079
• Mauer, E.-M., Okullo, S. J., & Pahle, M. (R&R). Postponing Auctioning Versus Cancellation of Allowances in the EU ETS. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3719948
• Friedrich, M., Fries, S., Pahle, M., & Edenhofer, O. (2020). Rules vs. Discretion in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Evidence from the EU Emission Trading System (No. 8637; CESifo Working Paper).
• Friedrich, M., Mauer, E.-M., Pahle, M., & Tietjen, O. (2020). From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS. ZBW Leibniz Information Centre for Economics. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/216726

• Wie der Krieg in der Ukraine die Klimaziele beeinflusst - ZDFheute https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/klimaziele-ukraine-krieg-100.html
• TSB Ausgleich 
• How to make ETS2 work for climate and people [2022, Euractiv, with B. Görlach and N. aus dem Moore]
• Interview: Price collar would preserve ‘political stability’ of EU carbon market [2022, Euractiv]
• Der Emissionsrechtehandel zwischen EU-Staaten – Kaum beachtet, aber enorm bedeutend [2022, Tagesspiegel Background, with M. Kosch, K. Umpfenbach, and J. Abrell]
• Finanzspekulation im Emissionshandel birgt Risiken für Klimaschutz [2022, Börsenzeitung]
• Ein sozialer Ausgleich für die Klimapolitik [2021, FAZ, with Manuel Frondel, Christoph M. Schmidt and O. Edenhofer]
• Ampel-Check: „Einschränkung heißt Unzufriedenheit“ [2021, Merkur]
• Warum die EU sowohl Emissionsstandards als auch CO2-Bepreisung braucht [2021, Tagesspiegel Background]
• Der CO2-Preis misst die Glaubwürdigkeit des Green Deals [2020, Handelsblatt]
• Spekulation, Höchstpreise und Regulatorik im ETS – eine Analyse  [2020, Tagesspiegel Background]
• Den EU-Emissionshandel im Corona-Sturz stabilisieren  [2020, Tagesspiegel Background]

• If Buildings Renovation fails, the EU ETS pricing mechanism must change [Energypost, with S. Osorio and O. Ruhnau]
• XXX [Makronom]
• EU ETS: The Market Stability Reserve should focus on carbon prices, not allowance volumes [Energypost, with Simon Quemin]
• xxx [Energypost, with O. Tietjen ]
• Why coordinated Dutch-German climate action is critical for Europe [Energypost, with Jan Frederik Braun and Mart van Bracht]

• Expert statement on „Ecological aspects of the German coal phase out“, hearing of the environmental comittee of the German parliament, 15 June 2020; coverage by Tagesspiegel Background and Dow Jones

• Financial Times and Bloomberg and Euractiv on ETS speculation
• Coverage by leading Germany media including SPIEGEL, FAZ, Welt, Zeit, Süddeutsche of article "Die unterschätzten Risiken des Kohleausstiegs"; Comments by Patrick Graichen und Andreas Kuhlmann in response to article "Die unterschätzten Risiken des Kohleausstiegs"
• Interview with the Wallstreet Journal about lessons from German climate policy for article "The Unrealistic Economics of the Green New Deal"
• Interview with SPIEGEL about the EU emission trading scheme for article "Raus aus Absurdistan"
• Interview with San Diego Union Tribune for article "Is California going the way of Germany when it comes to energy?"
• News by NewScientist and Breakthrough Institute on article "How emission certificate allocations distort fossil investments: The German example."