Homepage von Michael Pahle

michael_pahle
Dr. Michael Pahle
Leiter der Arbeitsgruppe "Klima- und Energiepolitik" (CAEP)
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Telegrafenberg A56 Raum 051
14473 Potsdam
Tel.: +49-331-288 2465
Email: michael.pahle@pik-potsdam.de
Web: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/pahle
  • Osorio, S., Tietjen, O., Pahle, M., Pietzcker, R.C., Edenhofer, O., submitted: Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in Light of More Ambitious EU ETS Emission Targets. EconStor Working Paper
  • Friedrich, M., Fries, S., Pahle, M., Edenhoer, O., submitted: Understanding the explosive trend in EU ETS prices - fundamentals or speculation? arXiv Working Paper
  • Friedrich, M., Mauer, E., Tietjen, O., Pahle, M., submitted: From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS. EconStor Working Paper
  • Pahle, M., Schaeffer, R. Pachauri, S., Eom, J., Awasthye, A., Chen, W., Di Maria, C., Jiang, K., Hei, C., Portugal-Pereirabj, J., Safonov, G., Verdolinil, E., submitted: The crucial role of complementarity, transparency and adaptability for designing energy policies for sustainable development.
  • Tietjen, O., Pahle, M., Lessmann, K., resubmitted: Hedging and the Temporal Permit Issuance in Cap-and-Trade Programs: The Market Stability Reserve Under Risk Aversion. SSRN Working Paper
  • Leipprand, A., Flachsland, C., Pahle, M., resubmitted: Starting low, reaching high? Sequencing in EU climate and energy policies
  • Steffen, B., Egli, F., Pahle, M., & Schmidt, T. S., 2020: Navigating the Clean Energy Transition in the COVID-19 Crisis. Joule, 1–5. DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.011
  • Osorio, S., Pietzcker, R. C., Pahle, M., & Edenhofer, O. 2020: How to deal with the risks of phasing out coal in Germany. Energy Economics, 87, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104730 CESifo Working Paper
  • Flachsland, C., Pahle, M., Burtraw, D., Edenhofer, O., Elkerbout, M., Fischer, C., Zetterberg, L., 2020: How to avoid history repeating itself: the case for an EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) price floor revisited. Climate Policy, 20(1), 1–10. DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1682494
  • Gambardella, C., Pahle, M., & Schill, W.-P., 2020: Do Benefits from Dynamic Tariffing Rise? Welfare Effects of Real-Time Retail Pricing Under Carbon Taxation and Variable Renewable Electricity Supply. Environmental and Resource Economics, 75(1), 183–213. DOI: 10.1007/s10640-019-00393-0
  • Schmidt, T.S., Steffen, B., Egli, F., Pahle, M., Tietjen, O., 2019: Adverse effects of rising interest rates on sustainable energy transitions. Nature Sustainability, 2(9), 879–885. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0375-2
  • Pahle, M., Burtraw, D., Flachsland, C., Kelsey, N., Biber, E., Edenhofer, O., Zysman, J., 2018: Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0287-6
  • Gambardella, C.,Pahle, M., 2018: Time-Varying Electricity Pricing and Consumer Heterogeneity: Welfare and Distributional Effects with Variable Renewable Supply. Energy Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.08.020
  • Schwerhoff, G., Kornek, U., Lessmann, K., Pahle, M., 2017: Leadership in Climate Change Mitigation: Consequences and Incentives. The Journal of Economic Surveys. DOI: 10.1111/joes.12203
  • Schill, W., Pahle, M., Gambardella, C., 2017: On the Relevance of Start-up Costs for Markets with Increasing Shares of Renewables. Nature Energy 2, Article number: 17050. DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2017.50
  • Leipprand, A., Flachsland, C., Pahle, M., 2016: Advocates or cartographers? Scientific advisors and the narratives of German energy transition. Energy Policy 102, pp. 222–236. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.021
  • Pahle, M., Schill, W., Gambardella, C., Tietjen, O., 2016: Renewable energy support, negative prices, and real-time pricing. The Energy Journal. Volume 37. SI3. DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI3.mpah → Code available for the sole purpose of reading here
  • Nahmmacher, P., Schmid, E., Pahle, M., Knopf, B., 2016: Strategies against shocks in power systems - an analysis for the case of Europe. Energy Economics 59, pp. 455-465. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.002
  • Steinbacher, K., Pahle, M., 2016: Leadership and the Energiewende: Current Actions and Available Options for German Leadership by Diffusion. Global Environmental Politicis. DOI: 10.1162/GLEP_a_00377Link from Harvard Belfer Center
  • Leiprand, A., Flachsland, C., Pahle, M.: Energy Transition on the Rise: an Analysis of Policy Narratives in German Parliamentary Debates. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, pp. 1-23. DOI: 10.1080/13511610.2016.1215241
  • Tietjen, O., Pahle, M., Fuss, S., 2016: Investment risks in power generation: a comparison of fossil fuel and renewable-energy-dominated markets. Energy Economics 58, pp. 174–185. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.005
  • Pahle, M., Pachauri, S., Steinbacher, K., 2016: Can the Green Economy deliver it all? Experiences of renewable energy policies with socio-economic objectives. Journal of Applied Energy 179, pp. 1331–1341. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.073
  • Pahle, M., Schweizerhof, H., 2016: Time for tough love: towards gradual risk transfer to renewables in Germany. EEEP 5(2). DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.mpahFeatured as research highlight in Nature Energy
  • Joas, F., Pahle, M., Flachsland, C., Joas, A., 2016: Which goals are driving the Energiewende? Making sense of the German Energy Transformation. Energy Policy. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.04.003
  • Knopf, B., Pahle, M., Kondziella, H., Joas, F., Edenhofer, O., Bruckner, T., 2014. Germany's nuclear phase-out: sensitivities and impacts on electricity prices and CO2 emissions. Economics of Energy and Environment Policy EEEP 3(1). DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.3.1.bkno
  • Edenhofer, O., Hirth, L., Knopf, B., Pahle, M., Schloemer, S., Schmid, E., Ueckerdt, F., 2013. On the Economics of Renewable Energy Sources, Energy Economics 40, pp. S12–S23. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.015
  • Schmid, E., Pahle, M., Knopf, B., 2013: Renewable electricity generation in Germany: A meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios. Energy Policy 61, pp. 1151–1163. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.105
  • Pahle, M., Lessmann, K., Edenhofer, O., Bauer, N., 2013: Investments in Imperfect Power Markets under Carbon Pricing: A Case Study Based Analysis. The Energy Journal.
  • Pahle, M., Fan, L., Schill, W.-P., 2011: How emission certificate allocations distort fossil investments: The German example. Energy Policy 39(4), pp. 1975–1987. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.027
  • Pahle, M., 2010: Germany’s dash for coal: Exploring drivers and factors. Energy Policy 38(7), pp. 3431-3442. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.017
    → Dear Mr. Pahle, I would like to thank you for your insightful article 'Germany's dash for coal: Exploring drivers and factors' that I read in the Energy Policy magazine. I am working as electrical engineer on one of the power plant projects you are talking about (800 MW in Wilhelmshaven for GDF Suez) and very often people around me ask 'how come we are still building coal-fired power plants in the 21st century ?'. Your article gives in-depth answers to this large question and I was very interested in reading it. (François Bultynck, Engineer GDF/SUEZ, 11.01.2011)
    → I enjoyed reading your paper, which is all the more relevant since you wrote it - I think German coal consumption increased in 2011 because of US shale gas pushing coal out of the US market and into the European market at prices which were lower than the price of Russian (and other) gas to Germany. Interesting and worrying! (David Buchan, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 05.09.12)

  • Pahle, M., Burtraw, D., Tietjen, O., Flachsland, C., Edenhofer, O.: Preserving the integrity of the EU ETS under unilateral action. Paper presented at the WCERE 2018 in Gothenburg. Accepted for presentation at the AEA meeting 2019 in Atlanta. Link
  • Schill, W., Zerrahn, A., Pahle, M.: Prosumage of solar electricity: batteries, heating and mobility. Accepted for presentation at the BIEE 2018 conference in London.
  • Mauer, E., Pahle, M., Leipprand, A.: Are we ratcheting up? Measuring the transformative impact of climate policies. Paper presented at the IST 2018 in Manchester. More information.
  • Mauer, E., Okullo, S., Pahle, M., forthcoming: Performance of the Market Stability Reserve under consideration of capacity accumulation.
  • Okullo, S., Pahle, M., Edenhofer, O., forthcoming: Regulatory intervention in an ailing emission trading system.
  • Pahle, M., Tietjen, O., Schmidt, T.S., Steffen, B., Egli, F., Osorio, S., forthcoming: Making climate policy ready for high interest rates.
  • Pahle, M., Tietjen, O., Quirion, P., forthcoming: An analysis of the allocation of risk under different renewable support schemes.
  • Gambardella, C., Novan, K., Pahle, M., Bushnell, J., forthcoming: The impacts of renewable energy on wholesale power markets.


  • ARIADNE, BMBF (2020-2023)
  • CO2-Preis, BMWi (2020-2023)
  • FFF: Future of Fossil Fuels in the wake of greenhouse gas neutrality, BMBF (2018-2020)
  • BeSmart: Smart-metering and dynamic electricity tariffing: Energy consumption choices, regulatory policies and welfare effects, BMBF (2018-2020)
  • START: Strategic Scenario Analysis (START) - Ein erstes Deutsch-Australisches Fokusprojekt, BMBF (2017-2019)
  • ENavi: Kopernikus-Projekte für die Energiewende – Themenfeld 4: Systemintegration und Vernetzung der Energieversorgung, BMBF (2016-2019)
  • INNOPATHS : Innovation Pathways, Strategies and Policies for the Low-Carbon Transition in Europe, Europäische Kommission (2016-2020)
  • AHEAD: Unilateral Action to Make a Global Difference: Towards Horizontal Leadership and Vertical Latitude for Germany & California, Stiftung Mercator (2016-2018)
  • CD-LINKS: Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing, Europäische Kommission (2015-2019)
  • Wissenschaftliche Unterstützung zu Fragen der Entwicklung eines Governance-Systems für den 2030 Klima- und Energierahmen, BMWi (2015-2018)
  • Hintergrundberichte zu aktuellen Entwicklungen in der Klimapolitik auf nationaler und subnationaler Ebene in den USA und Kanada mit Schwerpunkt Emissionshandel, BMUB (2015-2017)
  • A Renewable Energy Dominated Power Market: Challenges & Solutions for Market Design and Policy Instruments, Stiftung Mercator & Agora Energiewende (2013-2015)
  • Strommarktdesign der Energiewende, TMWAT (2012-2013)
  • Kosten des Ausbaus Erneuerbarer Energien, UBA (2012)
  • ALICE: Akteurshandeln und langfristige Investitionsentscheidungen im Klimaschutz, BMBF (2007-2010)
  • ADAM: Adaption & Mitigation Strategies, Europäische Kommission (2006-2009)

  • O. Edenhofer, C. Flachsland, M. Kalkuhl, B. Knopf, M. Pahle, 2019: Bewertung des Klimapakets und nächste Schritte. CO2-Preis, sozialer Ausgleich, Europa, Monitoring PDF
  • Jotzo, F., Pahle, M. et al., 2019: Markets, regulation, policies and institutions for transition in the electricity sector. START Project Report. PDF
  • Hufendiek, K., Pahle, M. et al., 2019: Das Kopernikus-Projekt ENavi - Die Transformation des Stromsystems mit Fokus Kohleausstieg. DOI: 10.18419/opus-10519
  • Pahle, M., Zabel, C., Edenhofer, O., Fahl, U., Fischedick, M., Hufendiek, K., et al., 2019: Interdisziplinärer Synthesebericht zum Kohleausstieg: ENavi informiert die Kohlekommission. GAIA 28(1), S. 61–62. PDF
  • O. Edenhofer, C. Flachsland, M. Kalkuhl, B. Knopf, M. Pahle, 2019: Optionen für eine CO2-Preisreform. MCC-PIK-Expertise für den Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung PDF Summary in English
  • Pahle, M., O. Edenhofer, R. Pietzcker, O. Tietjen, S. Osorio und C. Flachsland. 2019. Die unterschätzten Risiken des Kohleausstiegs. Energiewirtschatliche Tagesfragen 62, Nr. 6: 37–40.
  • D. Burtraw, J. Bushnell, C. Gambardella, M. Pahle, 2019: The response of market and policy design to increasing shares of renewables in California and Germany: Lessons learned and directions for the path ahead. PDF
  • O. Edenhofer and M. Pahle, 2019: The German Coal Phase Out: Buying out polluters, not (yet) buying into carbon pricing. EAERE Magazine N5 Spring 2019, pp.11-14. PDF
  • C. Flachsland, M. Pahle, D. Burtraw, O. Edenhofer, M. Elkerbout, C. Fischer, O. Tietjen, L. Zetterberg, 2018: Five myths about an EU ETS carbon price floor. PDF
  • M. Pahle, U. Fahl et al., 2018: Die Transformation des Stromsystems mit Fokus Kohleausstieg - Synthesebericht des Schwerpunktthemas #1. ENavi Report. PDF
  • Edenhofer, O., Flachsland, C., Arlinghaus, J., Haywood, L., Kalkuhl, M., Knopf, B., Koch, N., Kornek, U., Pahle, M., Pietzcker, R., Steckel, J., Ward, H., 2018: Eckpunkte einer CO2-Preisreform für Deutschland. PDF
  • Edenhofer, O., C. Flachsland, C. Wolff, L.K. Schmid, A. Leipprand, N. Koch, U. Kornek and M. Pahle, 2017. Decarbonization and EU ETS Reform: Introducing a price floor to drive low-carbon investments. PDF
  • J. Gubman, M. Pahle, K. Steinbacher & D. Burtraw, 2016: Transportation Electrification Policy in California and Germany: Comparison and Implications for German Electric Vehicle Policy. PDF
  • M. Pahle et al., 2015: Carbon Pricing is Key. Results from the Project: A Renewable Energy Dominated Power Market: Challenges & Solutions for Market Design and Policy Instruments PDF
  • M. Pahle et al., 2015: The road to Paris & multi-level carbon pricing: Getting the incentives right at the global, European & national level. Summary of Workshop. PDF
  • Pahle, M., 2015: Anstehende EEG-Reform und Langfristiger Klimaschutz – Ein Brückenschlag. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen 2015(3).
  • Joas, F., Pahle, M., Flachsland, C., 2014. Die Ziele der Energiewende: Eine Kartierung der Prioritäten. ifo Schnelldienst 9/2014. PDF.
  • Pahle, M., Knopf, B., Edenhofer, O., 2012: Die deutsche Energiewende: gesellschaftliches Experiment und sozialer Lernprozess. GAIA 21(4), S.278-283. PDF
  • Pahle, M., Knopf, B., Tietjen, O., Schmid, E., 2012. Kosten des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien: Eine Metaanalyse von Szenarien. CLIMATE CHANGE | 23/2012, Umweltbundesamt. PDF.
  • Knopf, B., Pahle, M. & Edenhofer, O., 2012. Der Erfolg der Energiewende hängt vom Strompreis ab - aber eine robuste Energiestrategie ist noch nicht in Sicht. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, 62(6), S.37-40.
  • Sathaye, J., Lucon, O., Rahman, A., et al, 2011: Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development. In: IPCC, 2011: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1075 pp.
  • Knopf. B., Pahle, M., Edenhofer, O., 2011: Die Kosten des Atomausstiegs und die Herausforderungen der Energiewende, Frankfurter Hefte 12|2011, S.31-33.
  • Knopf, B., Kondziella, H., Pahle, M., et al., 2011: Der Einstieg in den Ausstieg: Energiepolitische Szenarien für einen Atomausstieg in Deutschland, Berlin: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. PDF
  • Pahle, M., 2011: Investments in Liberalized Electricity Markets and the Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A Mixed-method Analysis of the German Case. Dissertation. TU Berlin. PDF
  • Bürger, C., Pahle, M., Wordelman, P., 2009: Die deutsche Gesetzesfolgenabschätzung im angelsächsischen Kontext. Verwaltung und Management, S. 83-89.