Dr Sebastian Osorio

Senior Scientist

Sebastian Osorio obtained his doctorate in information systems from the University of Lausanne. At PIK he is member of the "Climate and Energy Policy (CAEP)" group and is responsible for the European power system model LIMES-EU. His main focus is on the impact of decarbonisation targets on the power sector, and on the interaction between the EU ETS and national policies.


Working Group

Curriculum Vitae

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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2436
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam


Energy systems modelling, EU ETS and transition to low-carbon electricity markets

Publications (peer review)

Sitarz, J., Pahle, M., Osorio, S., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R.C., 2024. EU carbon prices signal high policy credibility and farsighted actors. Nat Energy. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01505-x

Levesque, A., Osorio, S., Herkel, S., Pahle, M., 2023. Rethinking the role of efficiency for the decarbonization of buildings is essential. Joule. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.05.011

Lonergan, K.E., Egli, F., Osorio, S., Sansavini, G., Pahle, M., Schmidt, T.S., Steffen, B., 2023. Improving the representation of cost of capital in energy system models. Joule. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.02.004

Pahle, M., Tietjen, O., Osorio, S., Egli, F., Steffen, B., Schmidt, T. S., Edenhofer, O., 2022. Safeguarding the energy transition against political backlash to carbon markets. Nat. Energy 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-00984-0

Osorio, S., Tietjen, O., Pahle, M., Pietzcker, R.C., Edenhofer, O., 2021. Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets. Energy Policy 158, 112530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112530

Pietzcker, R.C., Osorio, S., Rodrigues, R., 2021. Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector. Applied Energy 293, 116914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116914

Osorio, S., Pietzcker, R.C., Pahle, M., Edenhofer, O., 2020. How to deal with the risks of phasing out coal in Germany. Energy Econ. 87, 104730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104730

Larsen, E.R., van Ackere, A., Osorio, S., 2018. Can electricity companies be too big to fail? Energy Policy 119, 696–703. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.010

Osorio, S., van Ackere, A., Larsen, E.R., 2017. Interdependencies in security of electricity supply. Energy 135, 598–609. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.095

Larsen, E.R., Osorio, S., van Ackere, A., 2017. A framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 79, 646–655. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.085

Osorio, S., van Ackere, A., 2016. From nuclear phase-out to renewable energies in the Swiss electricity market. Energy Policy 93, 8–22. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.043

Osorio Ruiz, S. and Olaya Morales, Y., 2011. Análisis del comercio de gas entre Colombia y Venezuela / Analysis of natural gas trade between Colombia and Venezuela. Dyna, 78 (167). pp. 27-35. ISSN 0012-7353 (Available here)

Publications (non peer review) 

Osorio, S., Pahle, M., Quemin, S., Günther, C., and Pietzcker, R.C.. 2024. Will the EU ETS have a happy endgame?. EUI News. https://fsr.eui.eu/will-the-eu-ets-have-a-happy-endgame/

Günther, C., Pahle, M., Osorio, S., and Quemin, S. 2023. Europe Needs to Urgently Prepare for Carbon Market ‘Endgame.’ Www.Euractiv.Com. April 28, 2023. https://www.euractiv.com/section/emissions-trading-scheme/opinion/europe-needs-to-urgently-prepare-for-carbon-market-endgame/

Osorio, S., Pahle, M., Ruhnau, O., 2022. If Buildings Renovation fails, the EU ETS pricing mechanism must change. Energy Post. URL https://energypost.eu/if-buildings-renovation-fails-the-eu-ets-pricing-mechanism-must-be-changed/

Pahle, M., Tietjen, O., Osorio, S., Knopf, B., Flachsland, C., Korkmaz, P., Fahl, U., 2020. Die Anschärfung der EU-2030-Klimaziele und Implikationen für Deutschland. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen 70 Heft 7-8, 10-13

Pahle, M., Edenhofer, O., Pietzcker, R., Tietjen, O., Osorio, S., Flachsland, C., 2019. Die unterschätzten Risiken des Kohleausstiegs. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen 69 Heft 6, 31-34

Osorio, S., van Ackere, A., Larsen, E.R., 2017. Too big to fail in the electricity sector. Singapore Issue 2017, 26-28. Published by the International Agency for Energy Economics (IAEE). Available at http://www.iaee.org/documents/2017EnergyForumSI.pdf

 Reports and policy briefs

Pahle, M., Sitarz, J., Osorio, S., Görlach, B, Merschel, P., and Unsteadand, L. 2023. MSR through 2030: impact on market liquidity and considerations for the 2026 reform. Input material and takeaways from a workshop in Brussels. https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2023/12/Ariadne-Documentation_ETSWorkshopBruessel_December2023.pdf

Pahle, M., Sitarz, J., Osorio, S., and Görlach, B. 2022. The EU-ETS price through 2030 and beyond: A closer look at drivers, models and assumptions. Input material and takeaways from a workshop in Brussels. https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2023/01/Ariadne-Documentation_ETSWorkshopBruessel_December2022.pdf

Pietzcker, R., Feuerhahn, J., Haywood, L., Knopf, B., Leukhardt, F., Luderer, G., Osorio, S., Pahle, M., Rodrigues, R., Edenhofer, O., 2021. Ariadne-Hintergrund: Notwendige CO2-Preise zum Erreichen des europäischen Klimaziels 2030. https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2021/12/Ariadne-Hintergrund_CO2-Preisentwicklung_November21.pdf

Kriegler, E., Gulde, R., Colell, A., von Hirschhausen, C., Minx, J.C., Oei, P.-Y., Yanguas-Parra, P., Bauer, N., Brauers, H., Broska, L.H., Groh, E., Hagen, A., Hainsch, K., Holz, F., Hübler, M., Jakob, M., Khabbazan, M.M., Leimbach, M., Manych, N., Montes de Oca León, M., Ohlendorf, N., Osorio, S., Pahle, M., Reutter, L., Shamon, H., Steckel, J., Strefler, J., Vance, C., Vögele, S., von Wangenheim, G., Walk, P., Wittenberg, I., Zundel, S., 2020. Ausstieg aus fossilen Energieträgern - wie gelingt eine faire Systemtransformation. https://doi.org/10.2312/pik.2020.004

Work in progress

Osorio, S., Levesque, A., Pahle, M., Ruhnau, O., Gueret, A., Pietzcker, R., 2022. What buildings decarbonisation means for the EU ETS. Working Paper.

 Pahle, M., Quemin, S., Osorio, S., Günther, C., Pietzcker, R., 2024. The Emerging Endgame: The EU ETS on the Road Towards Climate Neutrality. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4373443 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4373443

PDF document List of publications 202310.pdf — PDF document, 94 KB

ARIADNE, post-2030 challenges for EU ETS (EU COM), LIFE-COASE