Tobias Geiger

I quantify the economic impacts of meteorological extreme events and their coeval development under future climate change and socio-economic evolution. My analysis is based on statistical methods and the application of various self-developed models.

Dr. Tobias Geiger

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
Telegrafenberg A56
D-14412 Potsdam

Deutscher Wetterdienst
Regionales Klimabüro Potsdam
Güterfelder Damm 87-91
14532 Stahnsdorf

Fields of research

Quantification and projection of impacts by meteorological extreme events (e.g. tropical cyclones, river floods, droughts) under climate change (see project details for EXPACT)

Economic impacts of meteorological extreme events and their integration in integrated assessment models (IAMs) (see project details for ENGAGE and ACCLIMATE)



  • Expert presentation for the educational PIKeeBB project (2017)
  • Lecturer in Master of Public Health at Charite Berlin / Technical University Berlin (summer term 2017-2019)
  • Lecturer at workshop ”Keep the change“, Theodor-Heuss-Akademie, Gummersbach, Germany (January 2017)



  • T. Geiger, J. Gütschow, D.N. Bresch, K. Emanuel, and K. Frieler, "Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure" (2021) (in review)
  • C. Otto, K. Kuhla, T. Geiger, J. Schewe, and K. Frieler, "Long-term impacts of climate extremes on economic growth: the superlinear dependence of economic recovery on event distribution and insurance penetration" (2021) (to be submitted)

Peer-reviewed publication

  • H. Krichene, T. Geiger, K. Frieler, S. Willner, I. Sauer, and C. Otto: The impacts of tropical cyclones and fluvial floods on economic growth - empirical evidence on transmission channels at different levels of development, World Development, 144, 2021, 105475,
  • I. J. Sauer, R. Reese, C. Otto, T. Geiger, S. N. Willner, B. P. Guillod et al. Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation. Nat Commun 12, 2128 (2021).
  • Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T., et al. (2020). Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. Earth's Future, 11, e2020EF001616.
  • Kreienkamp, F.; Lorenz, P.; Geiger, T. Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1245.
  • P. Pfleiderer, C.F. Schleussner, T. Geiger, and M. Kretschmer: Robust Predictors for Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Activity Identified with Causal Effect Networks, (2020) Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324,
  • T. Geiger and A. Stomper: Rising economic damages of natural disasters: Trends in event intensity or capital intensity? (2020) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA (PNAS), doi:10.1073/pnas.1922152117
  • S.J. Kim, C. Lim, G. S. Kim, J. Lee, T. Geiger, O. Rahmati, Y. Son, W. Lee: Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire probability using socio-economic and environmental variables, (2019) Remote Sens. 2019, 11, 86
  • T. Geiger, Continuous national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series for 195 countries: past observations (1850-2005) harmonized with future projections according to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2006-2100), (2018) Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 847-856,, dataset available via
  • Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., and Yamagata, Y., "Assessing the impacts of 1.5  °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321-4345 (2017)
  • T. Geiger, K. Frieler, and A. Levermann, "Reply to Comment on High-income does not protect against hurricane losses", Env. Res. Letters 12 098002 (2017)
  • T. Geiger, K. Frieler, and A. Levermann, "High-income does not protect against hurricane losses",  Env. Res. Letters 11 084012 (2016)
  • T. Geiger, A. Buchleitner, T. Wellens, New Journal of Physics 15 115015 (2013)
  • T. Geiger, T. Wellens, A. Buchleitner, Physical Review Letters 109 030601 (2012)
  • T. Geiger, T. Wellens, V. Shatokhin, A. Buchleitner, Photonics and Nanostructures 8 244-253 (2010)
  • V. Shatokhin, T. Geiger, T. Wellens, A. Buchleitner, Chemical Physics 375 150-162 (2010)
  • T. Wellens, T. Geiger, V. Shatokhin, A. Buchleitner, Physical Review A 82 013832 (2010)


Reports and book chapters


Data sets



T. Geiger (2013) "Inelastic multiple scattering of interacting bosons in weak random potentials"



T. Geiger (2009) "New approach to multiple scattering of intense laser light by cold atoms"


Short CV