Recommendations to avoid climate change-related effects in East African coffee value chains

The coffee sector is an important part of East Africa’s economy, particularly in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda, which are among the top coffee-exporting nations in the world and are known for their high-quality production of Arabica and Robusta coffee. In East Africa, coffee is typically grown by smallholder farmers who cultivate the crop on small plots of land using traditional farming methods. The coffee industry in the region is further characterized by a complex value chain that involves a range of different actors, including farmers, processors, traders, export companies and roasters. Climate risk assessments that take into consideration the entire value chain are therefore vital for the design of comprehensive adaptation strategies. A better understanding of how climate change will impact the different steps of the coffee value chain and the economic benefits of adapting to these impacts has the potential to guide, incentivize and accelerate public and private investments for climate-resilient coffee value chains.

The project "AfriValue" is implemented on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) to quantify losses and damages along the different steps of the coffee value chains in East Africa and identify and assesses innovative adaptation strategies for different value chain actors. Three waves of representative panel data of coffee households (both production and processing) will be collected and analysed in Uganda in combination with qualitative assessments and climate impact modelling to develop recommendations for different time horizons with different climate scenarios. The project results will be prepared in a manner transferable to other contexts and agricultural value chains. Based on the method of design thinking, barriers to selected adaptation options will be identified and concrete, both context-specific and transferable recommendations for action will be developed, together with an expert consortium consisting of different actors in the field of agricultural value chains, including the private sector, academia and politics. Data collection on the ground is conducted in partnership with the French agricultural research centre for international development (CIRAD) and the Uganda Coffee Farmers Alliance (UCFA).

The aim of the AfriValue project is to analyse climate risks for coffee value chains in East Africa (Ethiopia/Kenya/Rwanda/Uganda) and to identify and evaluate effective adaptation measures. The knowledge gained will provide value chain actors and stakeholders in politics, the private sector and development cooperation with a science-based decision-making basis for innovative and economically beneficial adaptation investments.


Dec 01, 2022 until Dec 31, 2026

Funding Agency



Christoph Gornott