Earth4 - Accelerating the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) within Planetary Boundaries (PB) with a next generation global system model

The project will develop and launch a new science-based model from leading thinkers to flesh-out five actionable, transformational turnarounds for the world economy to 2050 and beyond. The project aims to create a world-wide social and political momentum to accelerate the systems change needed toward a well-being economy, for people and planet. One main novelty is working out how to address the main barriers currently stalling the transformational shift, ie. on how to overcome the “why is it not already happening”? The outcomes, the broad communication and high-level policy outreach will enable a transparent and comprehensive, system-wide and quantitative analysis and dialogue of global futures for Humanity on Earth.

Earth4 will combine the capacity of assessing global catastrophic risks, such as crossing planetary tipping points irreversibly condemning humanity to a Hothouse Earth trajectory, with the quantitative assessment of economic development, population growth, poverty and inequality and delivery on all the sustainable development goals.

The results of this study will be presented to high-level decision makers around the world, during the critical 2022 year – halfway after the adoption of the SDGs and the Paris Climate Agreement to 2030. Conventional "Business-as-Usual" scenarios will be compared with the well-being outcomes in multiple alternative and likely/less-likely futures, depending on the level of policy, investment, innovation and behavioural change that the world’s regions implement in the short term. Other models or scenario development may be added to complement this study during the life of the project but if so, will be funded separately.


Dec 01, 2020 until Dec 31, 2023

Funding Agency

Club of Rome


Dieter Gerten / Jonathan Donges