Integrated water resources management and river basin planning in the Juba Basin, require a sound understanding of the expected climate change impacts on the basins’s hydrology, as previous studies show that the future development of water availability in the region is decisively shaped by climate change. As the river basin is located in a region where there is uncertainty in precipitation trends, it is very important to apply the latest generation of climate scenarios and to carefully compare the selected climate model runs with observed trends. However, there are still hardly any regionalized climate scenarios for the latest climate model generation of the IPCC available for the region. One of the few exceptions is the data from the ISIMIP project (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project), which is coordinated at PIK.
We will prepare scenarios of future water availability under climate change conditions for the Juba River basin spanning Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and investigate the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime of the Juba River, in a quantitative analysis based on relevant existing climate change scenarios and studies.
