Recent publications

In press

• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, J. Heitzig, W. Barfuss, S.E. Cornell, S.J. Lade, and M. Schlüter,
  Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops,
  Earth System Dynamics, in press (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-2018-27.
  

2021

• V. Brovkin, E. Brook, J.H. Williams, S. Bathiany, T.M. Lenton, M. Barton,  R.M. DeConto, J.F. Donges, A. Ganopolski, J. McManus, S. Praetorius, A. de Vernal, A. Abe-­Ouchi, H. Cheng, M. Claussen, M. Crucifix, G. Gallopin, V. Iglesias, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kleinen, F. Lambert, S. van der Leeuw, H. Liddy, M.-­F. Loutre, D. McGee, K. Rehfeld, R. Rhodes, A. Seddon, M.H. Trauth, L. Vanderverken, Z. Yu,
  Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system,
  Nature Geoscience, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5.
• J. Bak-Coleman, M. Alfano, W. Barfuss, C. Bergstrom, M.A. Centeno, I.D. Couzin, J.F. Donges, M. Galesic, A. Gersick, J. Jacquet, A. Kao, R.E. Moran, P. Romanczuk, D.I. Rubenstein, K. Tombak, J.J. Van Bavel, E.U. Weber,
  Stewardship of global collective behavior,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 118, e2025764118 (2021),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2025764118.
• N. Wunderling, J. Krönke, V. Wohlfarth, J. Kohler, J. Heitzig, A. Staal, S. Willner, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package,
  European Physical Journal Special Topics, online first (2021),
  DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4,
  preprint arXiv:2011.02031 [physics.soc-ph].
• N. Wunderling, J.F. Donges, J. Kurths, R. Winkelmann,
  Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming,
  Earth System Dynamics 12, 601–619 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-601-2021,
  Discussion paper: DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-18.
  
• S.H.R. Rosier, R. Reese, J.F. Donges, J. De Rydt, G.H. Gudmundsson, R. Winkelmann,
  The tipping points and early-warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica,
  The Cryosphere 15, 1501–1516 (2021),
  DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021.

2020

• N. Wunderling, M. Gelbrecht, R. Winkelmann, J. Kurths, J.F. Donges,
  Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades,
  New Journal of Physics 22, 123031 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a,
  Preprint arXiv:2009.09902 [physics.ao-ph] (2020).
  
• N. Wunderling, M. Willeit, J.F. Donges, and R. Winkelmann,
  Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice,
  Nature Communications 11, 5177 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3,
  PIK press release.
  
• J. Garbe, T. Albrecht, J.F. Donges, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann,
  The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet,
  Nature 585, 538–544, (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5.
• M. Wiedermann, E.K. Smith, J. Heitzig, J.F. Donges,
  A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter's threshold model for social tipping,
  Nature Scientific Reports 10, 11202 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6,
  preprint arXiv:1911.04126 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• A.K. Klose, V. Karle, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate,
  Royal Society Open Science 7, 200599 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200599
  preprint arXiv:1910.12042 [physics.geo-ph].
• J.-D. Mathias, M. Debeljak, G. Deffuant, A. Diemer, F. Dierickx, J.F. Donges, G. Gladkykh, J. Heitzig, G. Holtz, W. Obergassel, F. Pellaud, A. Sánchez, A. Trajanov, N. Videira,
  Grounding social foundations for Integrated Assessment Models of climate change,
  Earth's Future 8, e2020EF001573 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001573.
  
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, V.V. Vasconcelos, J. Kurths, S.A. Levin,
  Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 117, 12915–12922 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1916545117,
  PIK news piece, SRC news piece.
• J.F. Donges*, J. Heitzig*, W. Barfuss, M. Wiedermann, J.A. Kassel, T. Kittel, J.J. Kolb, T. Kolster, F. Müller-Hansen, I.M. Otto, K.B. Zimmerer, and W. Lucht,
  Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework,
  Earth System Dynamics 11, 395–413 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-395-2020,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship.
• J. Krönke, N. Wunderling, R. Winkelmann, A. Staal, B. Stumpf, O.A. Tuinenburg, J.F. Donges,
  Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks,
  Physical Review E 101, 042311 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311,
  preprint arXiv:1905.05476 [physics.soc-ph].
  
• N. Wunderling*, B. Stumpf*, J. Krönke, A. Staal, O.A. Tuinenburg, R. Winkelmann, J.F. Donges,
  How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: linking micro- to macro-scales,
  Chaos 30, 043129 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1063/1.5142827,
  preprint arXiv:2001.02169 [nlin.AO],
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  AIP Scilight: Microscale rainforest interactions can result in vulnerabilities across large regions.
  
• T. Ide, C. Fröhlich, J.F. Donges,
  The Economic, Political, and Social Implications of Environmental Crises,
  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) 101, E364–E367 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0257.1.
• T. Ide, M. Brzoska, J.F. Donges, C.-F. Schleussner,
  Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk,
  Global Environmental Change 62, 102063 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063.
  
• M. Mahecha, F. Gans, G. Brandt, R. Christiansen, S.E. Cornell, N. Fomferra, G. Kraemer, J. Peters, G. Camps-Valls, J.F. Donges, W. Dorigo, L. Estupinan-Suarez, V. Gutierrez-Velez, M. Gutwin, M. Jung, M. Londono, D. Miralles, P. Papastefanou, M. Reichstein,
  Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics,
  Earth System Dynamics 11, 201–234 (2020),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-201-2020.
• S.J. Lade, W. Steffen, W. de Vries, S.R. Carpenter, J.F. Donges, D. Gerten, H. Hoff, T. Newbold, K. Richardson, J. Rockström,
  Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions,
  Nature Sustainability 3, 119–128 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4,
  PIK press release, SRC press release.
• I.M. Otto, J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Reply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS) 117, 10631–10632 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002648117.
• I.M. Otto*, J.F. Donges*, R. Cremades, A. Bhowmik, R. Hewitt, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, F. Allerberger, S. Doe, A. Lenferna, M. McCaffrey, N. Morán, D.P. van Vuuren, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA (PNAS), 201900577 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900577117,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  PIK press release, SRC news, New York Times.

2019

• F.M. Strnad, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, J. Heitzig,
  Deep reinforcement learning in World-Earth system models to discover sustainable management strategies,
  Chaos 29, 123122 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1063/1.5124673,
  preprint arXiv:1908.05567 [physics.soc-ph] [cs.LG],
  PIK news item.
• K. Kornhuber, D. Coumou, E. Vogel, C. Lesk, J.F. Donges, J. Lehmann, R. Horton,
  Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions,
  Nature Climate Change 10, 48–53 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z,
  PIK press release.

• S.J. Lade, J. Norberg, J.M. Anderies, C. Beer, S.E. Cornell, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, T. Gasser, K. Richardson, J. Rockström, W. Steffen,
  Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change,
  Global Sustainability 2, e21 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.18.

• J. Randers, J. Rockström, P.-E. Stoknes, U. Goluke, D. Collste, S.E. Cornell, and J.F. Donges,
  Achieving the 17 sustainable development goals within 9 planetary boundaries,
  Global Sustainability 2, e24 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1017/sus.2019.22,
  Preprint: EarthArXiv:10.31223/osf.io/xwevb,
  SRC news item and video.

• I.M. Otto, M. Wiedermann, R. Cremades, J.F. Donges, C. Auer, W. Lucht,
  Human agency in the Anthropocene,
  Ecological Economics 167, 106463 (2020),
  DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106463.
• Deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning for stochastic games,
  Physical Review E 99, 043305 (2019),
  DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.043305,
  PRE editor's choice,
  PIK news release: New method to better understand much-employed self-learning Artificial Intelligence,
  Preprint: arXiv:1809.07225.
  
• C. Ciemer, N. Boers, M. Hirota, J. Kurths, F. Müller-Hansen, R.S. Oliveira, R. Winkelmann,
  Higher resilience to climatic disturbances in tropical vegetation exposed to more variable rainfall,
  Nature Geoscience 12 (2019), 174–179,
  DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0312-z,
  PIK Press release.

• W. Steffen, J. Rockström, K. Richardson, T.M. Lenton, C. Folke, D. Liverman, C.P. Summerhayes, A.D. Barnosky, S.E. Cornell, M. Crucifix, J.F. Donges, I. Fetzer, S.J. Lade, M. Scheffer, R. Winkelmann, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene,
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 115(33), 8252-8259 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115,
  PIK press release,
  SRC press release.
• W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges, S.J. Lade, and J. Kurths,
  When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe,
  Nature Communications 9, 2354 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z,
  Official PIK press release: better safe than sorry,
  Official SRC news release.
• J. Heitzig, W. Barfuss, J.F. Donges,
  A thought experiment on sustainable management of the Earth system,
  Sustainability 10(6), 1947 (2018),
  DOI: 10.3390/su10061947.
• M. Milkoreit, J. Hodbod, J. Baggio, K. Benessaiah, R. Calderon Contreras, J.F. Donges, J.-D. Mathias, J. Rocha, M. Schoon, and S. Werners,
  Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship – an interdisciplinary literature review,
  Environmental Research Letters 13, 033005 (2018),
  DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75.

• F. Müller-Hansen, M. Schlüter, M. Mäs, J.F. Donges, J.J. Kolb, K. Thonicke, and J. Heitzig,
  Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models – an overview of techniques and approaches,
  Earth System Dynamics 8, 977-1007 (2017),
  DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-977-2017,
  Discussion paper: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2017, DOI: 10.5194/esd-2017-18.

• J.F. Donges*, R. Winkelmann*, W. Lucht, S.E. Cornell, J.G. Dyke, J. Rockström, J. Heitzig, and H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Closing the loop: reconnecting human dynamics to Earth system science,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(2), 151-157 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1177/2053019617725537,
  * The first two authors share the lead authorship,
  News release (Stockholm Resilience Centre).

• J.F. Donges and W. Barfuss,
  From math to metaphors and back again. Social-ecological resilience from a multi-agent-environment perspective,
  GAIA 26(S1), 182–190 (2017),
  DOI: 10.14512/gaia.26.S1.5.

• J.F. Donges, W. Lucht, F. Müller-Hansen, and W. Steffen,
  The Technosphere in Earth system analysis: a coevolutionary perspective,
  The Anthropocene Review 4(1), 23-33 (2017),
  DOI: 10.1177/2053019616676608,
  Preprint: arxiv:1704.06476 [physics.soc-ph].
• A. Ganopolski, R. Winkelmann, H.J. Schellnhuber,
  Critical insolation - CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception,
  Nature 529 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/nature16494.

• A. Levermann & R. Winkelmann,
  A simple equation for the melt-elevation feedback of ice sheets,
  The Cryosphere 10 (2016), DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016.
  
• H.J. Schellnhuber, S. Rahmstorf, R. Winkelmann,
  Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris,
  Nature Climate Change 6 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3013.
• C.-F. Schleussner*, J.F. Donges*, D.A. Engemann*, and A. Levermann,
  Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure,
  Nature Scientific Reports 6, 30790 (2016), DOI: 10.1038/srep30790,
  * The first three authors share the lead authorship.
  
• R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, K. Caldeira,
  Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet,
  Science Advances 1 (2015), DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500589.
• R. Winkelmann, M.A. Martin, M. Haseloff, T. Albrecht, E. Bueler, C. Khroulev, A. Levermann,
  The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), Part 1: Model description,
  The Cryosphere 5 (2011), 715-726, DOI: 10.5194/tc-5-715-2011.