Dr. Jérôme Hilaire

I am a senior researcher currently working at the interface between climate scenario science and the financial sector where I design scenarios, co-develop methods to integrate scenario in transition risks analysis and stress-testing exercises, and help various actors understand and integrate scenario data. I have nearly 10 years of experience across a wide spectrum of climate change topics including climate change and energy economics, carbon dioxide removal and air pollution.


Working Group


Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2412
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam


Jérôme is a senior researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He is currently co-leading a number of projects that aim to help different actors in the financial sector understand and use climate change scenarios. His research interests lay at the intersection between climate change science, energy economics, finance, and policies. For his research, he uses a variety of mathematical modelling methods: integrated assessment modelling, resource economics modelling, statistical learning algorithm and meta-analysis. He published more than 20 peer-reviewed publications in economics and interdisciplinary journals. Jérôme holds a PhD in atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing from Manchester Metropolitan University and did his undergraduate studies at the Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Toulouse on the topic of applied mathematics and modelling.

Research interests

  • Informing financial actors about transition risks and opportunities (TCFD)
  • Climate mitigation and policies
  • Fossil fuel resources and markets
  • Renewable energy resources and technologies
  • Air pollution and health impacts
  • Climate knowledge synthesis
  • Data science and machine learning tools for climate science

Journal articles (peer-reviewed)


  1. Giannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., Nemet, G. F., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Rodrigues, R., Baumstark, L. and Kriegler, E. How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways Accepted in Energy (2020)


  1. Smith, S. J., Chateau, J., Dorheim, K., Drouet, L., Durand-Lasserve, O., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hanaoka, T., Harmsen, M., Hilaire, J., Keramidas, K., Klimont, Z., Luderer, G., Moura, M. C. P., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., Sano, F., van Vuuren, D. P. and Wada, K. Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis Climatic Change (2020) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3
  2. Rauner, S., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Strefler, J. and Luderer, G. Co-benefits of ratcheting up the INDCs for air pollution health damages Climatic Change (2020) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02699-1
  3. Rauner, S., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., Strefler, J. and Luderer, G. Co-benefits of ratcheting up the INDCs for air pollution health damages Climatic Change (2020) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02699-1
  4. Steckel, J. C., Hilaire, J., Jakob, M., and Edenhofer, O. Coal and carbonization in Sub-Sahara Africa Nature Climate Change (2020) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0649-8


  1. van Soest, H. L., van Vuuren, D. P., Hilaire, J., Minx, J. C., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., Krey, V., Popp, A., Riahi, K. and Luderer, G. Sustainable Development Goals: Analysing Interactions with Integrated Assessment Models Global Transitions (2019) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589791819300179
  2. Hilaire, J., Minx, J., Callaghan, M. W., Edmonds, J., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J. and Zamora Dominguez, M. Negative emissions and International Climate Goals: learning from and about the scenario literature Climatic Change (2019) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02516-4
  3. Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., ... Hilaire, J., ... and Takahashi, K. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized regional and country-level emissions trajectories through the end of the century Geoscientific Model Development (2019) https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019
  4. Harmsen, M. J. H. M., Fricko, O., Hilaire, J., ... and Smith, S. J. Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation Climatic Change (2019) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02436-3
  5. Harmsen, M. J. H. M., van Vuuren, D. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Durand-Lasserve, O., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Gernaat, D., Hanaoka, T., Hilaire, J. ... and Wada K. The role of methane in future climate strategies: Mitigation potentials and climate impacts Climatic Change (2019) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2
  6. Creutzig, F., Breyer, C., Hilaire, J., Minx, J. and Peters, G. Energy system implications of negative emission technologies Energy & Environmental Science (2019) https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2019/ee/c8ee03682a


  1. Lenzi, D., Lamb, W. F., Hilaire, J., Kowarsch, M. and Minx, J. Don't deploy negative emissions without ethical analysis Nature (2018) https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06695-5
  2. Kriegler, E., Bertram, C., Kuramochi, T., ..., Hilaire, J., ... and Edenhofer, O. Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals Environmental Research Letters (2018) http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=7/a=074022
  3. Minx, J., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, ... and Zamora Dominguez, M. Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis Environmental Research Letters (2018) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b
  4. Fuss, S., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Hilaire, J., ... and Minx, J. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects Environmental Research Letters (2018) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f
  5. Nemet, G. F., Callaghan, M. W., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Hartmann, J., Hilaire, J., ... and Smith P. Negative emissions—Part 3: Innovation and upscaling Environmental Research Letters (2018) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabff4
  6. Bauer, N., McGlade, C., Hilaire, J. and Ekins, P. Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies Nature Climate Change (2018) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0053-1


  1. Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hilaire, J., ... and van Vuuren, D.P. Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives Global Environmental Change (2017) www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016301224
  2. Kriegler, E, Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B.L., Hilaire, J., ... and Edenhofer, O. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century Global Environmental Change (2017) www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300711
  3. Rao, S., Klimont, Z., Smith, S.J., Van Dingenen, R., Dentener, F., ..., Hilaire, J. et al Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways Global Environmental Change (2017) www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300723


  1. Bauer, N., Hilaire, J., Brecha, R.J., Edmonds, J., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Rogner, H.H. and Sferra, F. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework Energy (2016) www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216307058
  2. Edenhofer, O., Flachsland, C., Hilaire, J. and Jakob, M. Den Klimawandel stoppen. Es gibt nicht zu wenig, sondern zu viel fossile Ressourcen - sie müssen in der Erde bleiben. (2016) Patenge, M., Beck, R., Luber, M. (eds.): Schöpfung bewahren - Theologie und Kirche als Implusgeber für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung, Verlag Friedrich Pustet, 30-34.


  1. Jakob, M. and Hilaire, J. Using Importers’ Windfall Savings from Oil Subsidy Reform to Enhance International Cooperation on Climate Policies. Climatic Change (2015) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1406-2
  2. Hilaire, J., N. Bauer and R.J. Brecha. Boom or bust? Mapping out the known unknowns of global shale gas production potential. Energy Economics, In Press, Accepted Manuscript (2015) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988315001097
  3. Jakob, M. and Hilaire, J. Unburnable fossil-fuel reserves. Nature, 517, 150-152 (2015) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7533/full/517150a.html
  4. Arroyo-Currás, T. et al. Carbon leakage in a fragmented climate regime: The dynamic response of global energy markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90, 192–203, (2015) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513002606


  1. McJeon, H. et al. Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas. Nature, 514, 482–485



  1. Bertram, C., Hilaire, J., Kriegler, E., Beck, T., Bresch, D. N., Clarke, L., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Min, J., Piontek, F., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F., van Ruijven, B., and Yu, S. NGFS Climate Scenarios Database - Technical Documentation A report prepared by the NGFS Academic Consortium for the NGFS WS2 (2020) NGFS Climate Scenarios - Technical Documentation
  2. Hilaire, J. and Bertram, C. The REMIND-MAgPIE model and scenarios for transition risk analysis A report prepared by PIK for the UNEP-FI Banking Pilot project (Phase 2) (2020) https://doi.org/10.2312/PIK.2020.006

  • NGFS Scenarios (Jan. 2020 - ) with IIASA, Uni. of Maryland, Climate Analytics and ETH Zürich
  • UNEP-FI TCFD for Banking Pilot 2 (Dec. 2019 - Jun. 2020) with IIASA
  • RECAM (Nov. 2019 - Apr. 2020) with MSCI/Carbon Delta

Coming soon