Integrating climate impact and spatial microsimulation modelling for improved climate change adaptation decision-making

Minimising the welfare cost of climate change requires effective adaptation policies. Consequently, the EU strategy on climate change adaptation prioritises the creation of framework models and tools to support decision-making and to assess [the effectiveness of] various adaptation measures. Accurate measurement of welfare cost is a prerequisite for effective policy prioritisation. The current state of the art quantifies welfare costs using aggregated methodologies. This has been shown to bias cost estimation and does not capture the socioeconomic distribution of welfare impacts. This bias may therefore affect the effectiveness of adaptation measures. Integrating climate impact models with Spatial Microsimulation (SM) modelling provides a framework to estimate micro-level welfare impacts and thus overcome these deficiencies. Furthermore, this project integrates these estimates into decision-making models to aid policy.

- create a framework to estimate micro-level welfare impacts of weather events for EU regions => a new model - compare micro-level welfare impacts with aggregated state-of-the-art through suitable case study - identify socioeconomic distribution of climate impacts among vulnerable groups using micro-level framework - create a tool to incorporate those outcomes into adaptation decision-making


Apr 02, 2018 until Dec 31, 2019


159.461 €

Funding Agency

EU, H2020

Funding Call

MSCA-IF-EF-ST, MSCA-IF-2016 - Individual Fellowships


Hermann Lotze-Campen