PERSEVERE2

In recent decades, Europe has become a hotspot for persistent hot and dry summer extremes, which in northern mid-latitudes have increased at a higher pace over land. Changes in atmosphere dynamics, such as more frequent double jet conditions over Eurasia, have been shown to be linked to heatwaves over western Europe and explain their accelerated heatwave trend (outcome PERSEVERE I). The influence of changes in atmosphere dynamics under climate change conditions represent a large source of uncertainty in estimating changes in future extreme events. PERSEVERE 2 will assess the ability of general circulation models to (i) reproduce the observed double jet classification and trend found in observations, (ii) assess changes in double jet frequency in future projections under anthropogenic global warming and their impact on future hot and dry conditions over Europe and (iii) assess extreme risks associated with drought conditions and compound extremes driven by jet stream dynamics. The double jets detection scheme (developed in PERSEVERE I) will be applied to CMIP6 and large ensemble of model simulations to identify those models which better represent observed circulation patterns, and thus reducing the uncertainty related to future dynamical changes. Finally, the link between anomalously dry conditions in spring and subsequent large-scale dynamical patterns leading to extreme drought events in summer will be analyzed.