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Can decisions be formalised?


In appraising options, there are a range of informal and formal decision appraisal methods. Formal decision appraisal methods are those methods that are based on mathematical reasoning prescribing which options should be chosen. Examples of such methods are multi-criteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis or robust decision making. In contrast, informal decision appraisal methods are those that have emerged in individuals or social and organisational settings over time, such as behavioural economics and risk communication.



AP interactive decision tree - click any node to select it

Once preferences have been harmonised, the next consideration is whether to apply formal approaches or deliberative approaches or both. There are a number of criteria that are relevant here. These should be considered as tentative criteria, as it is difficult to give clearcut criteria for choosing either formal or deliberative decision appraisal methods. Often both deliberative and formal methods may be equally relevant within a given adaptation decision. In order for formalisation to be appropriate a decision must be well-defined. A decision is well-defined and can be formalized under a following conditions:

  • A decision among a set of options (also called alternatives, strategies, actions) has been identified. Notably, the identification of this set is not addressed by decisionanalytical methods.
  • Outcomes of implementing options are known, that is they have been computed using either methods of risk assessment for present climate extreme event risks or residual impact projection methods for future climate (both slow onset and extremeevent). In the former case, outcomes may be expressed either probabilistically (with a likelihood of occurrence) or via scenarios (without a likelihood of occurrence). In the later case outcomes may only be represented via scenarios as probabilities cannot be associated to different pathways of socio-economic development and associated emission scenarios, which drive climate change and its impacts.
  • Outcomes are characterised by one or several attributes (also called metrics, criteria, values), where at least one attribute describes the costs of planning and implementing an option.
  • A baseline, which is a “do nothing” option against which to measure the values of the attributes can be established.

In general, further criteria to be fulfilled for formal decision appraisal to be appropriate are summarised in Table 2.7. These criteria relate to the feasibility and cost of formalizing a decision. Formalising a decision requires being able to translate the “real-world” complexity into the canonical form that formal methods rely on: one decision among a set of options (also called alternatives, strategies, actions) with each option being characterised by a set of attributes (also called metrics, criteria, values). The attributes describe both the costs of implementing an option as well as cost and benefits of the outcomes of implementing options. For decisions that are not well-defined and are interconnected to other decisions this might be difficult to do or the costs of information gathering and processing might be prohibitively high. It may then be appropriate to make individual decisions informally on the basis of intuition.

Empirical criteriaFormal appraisalIntuitive/deliberative
appraisal
Ambiguity on options, outcomes and
baselines)
LowHigh
Interconnectedness of decisionsLowHigh
Information gathering and
processing costs
LowHigh
Importance of money in decisionHighLow
Experience on similar decisions with
immediate feedback.
LowHigh
Table 2.7: Criteria relevant to selecting formal or informal methods for appraising options.

Finally, a further important criteria for applying formal decision making methods is that they are often prescribed by the policy or legal context.



This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document


Criteria checklist

1. You want to appraise adaptation options.
2. The focus is either on collective actions and there are no conflicting interests of private actors, or the focus is on individual collective actions.
3. As a next step you are faced with the question whether decisions can / should be formalised.