Identifying vulnerability and impacts, including the opportunities presented by these, relies on two equally important and complementary sub-tasks:

1. Analysing observed or expected impacts of climate change (with and without adaptation). Tasks and methods associated with this sub-task will be called impact-analytical.
2. Analysing the capacity to prevent, moderate or adapt to these impacts.Capacity is analysed using a diverse range of approaches including indicators, behaviour-analytical and institution-analytical ones.

Early work on adaptation focused on the first sub-task. More recently, the adaptation literature places a comparable emphasis on the latter aspects. This is due to the realization that in many AS a lack of capacity, often in the form of cognitive and institutional barriers, prevent adaptation action rather than a lack of knowledge of future climate impacts (Dessai et al., 2008; Adger et al., 2009; Moser and Ekstrom, 2010 ).

In terms of which aspect to focus on, either impact analysis or capacity analysis, only tentative criteria can be given (Table 2.2). In most ASs both aspects may be relevant. Generally, impact analyses are more resource intensive, in terms of finances, time and trained experts, while capacity analysis can be carried out under tighter constraints in regard to these. Further, when uncertainties are very substantial, knowledge produced by impact analyses may not justify the use of resources to produce them. A related point is that lack of data may constrain the quality of knowledge produced by impact analysis. These are further reasons to focus on capacity analysis. Finally, participatory processes may increase the sense of ownership amongst a stakeholder group leading to increased chances of success in the implementation stage. Capacity analysis may be thus more appropriate in a participatory setting.

	Impact analysis	Capacity analysis
Public/private AS	Private	Public
Scale of analysis	Global to regional	National to household
Time horizon relevant	Future	Current
Development level	High	Low
Resource requirements	+++	+
Time requirements	++	+
Data requirements	+++	+
Participatory setting	+	+++

Table 2.2: Criteria for deciding whether to emphasise impact analysis or capacity analysis or both.

Tentatively, one can further say that the more important social factors are in shaping the magnitude of the risks and opportunities in a given AS the more the focus should lie on analysing capacities (Hinkel and Bisaro, 2013a). To take an example, the Comparative Risk Assessment research project (Ezzati et al., 2004) led by the World Health Organisation (WHO) names increasing occurrence of malnutrition and diarrhoea as the major causes of climate change related mortality. The major factor leading to this mortality is, however, not climate change but rather the lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. Assessment of vulnerability and impacts should thus focus on the latter factors in order to understand how the access of the poor to sanitation and drinking water can be improved.