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Vulnerability and capacity analysis


Vulnerability and capacity indication approaches attempt to say something about possible future impacts based on data collected on the current state of the exposure unit, often combined with social system variables representing capacity.
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Vulnerability and capacity indication approaches attempt to say something about possible future impacts based on data collected on the current state of the exposure unit, often combined with social system variables representing capacity. Vulnerability and capacity indicationapproaches face the challenge that the aggregation of indicating variables into a vulnerability index can hardly be supported by theory nor can the results be validated empirically (Hinkel 2011a). Due to the lack of theory, some approaches seek to validate through data generated in interviews and focus groups against the "narratives" of vulnerability present in the literature (e.g. Mustafa et al. 2008). Other approaches use expert judgement, but different experts usually rank dimensions differently (Brooks and Adger 2005). Nonetheless, current work on developing and improving vulnerability indicators to address these issues is ongoing (see e.g. Regions 2020, ClimWatAdapt Project and ESPON project). The difference between impact attribution and vulnerability indication approaches is that the former require data on observed impacts while the latter are only applied in the absence of such data.

Question addressed

Which (combination of) variable(s) give an indication on how climate change may impact the study unit?

Conditions of applicability

Data on indicating variables is available. Data on observed impacts is NOT available. Future impacts cannot be reliably simulated using computational models.

Theoretical assumptions

Variables related to both capacity and climate drivers (or exposure) are responsible for impacts on study unity.

Steps taken

1. Selection of variables of interest
2. Application of statistical methods

Results achieved

A function that maps the current state of the entity to a measure of possible future impacts. The measure is often called adaptive capacity.

Issues involved

[text to be added]


Example cases from literature

Hahn et al. (2009) develop a Livelihood Vulnerability Index based on surveying 220 household in Mozambique. The indicating variables describing aspects such as demographics, social networks, resource availability and past exposure to climate variability were selected based on the literature and then aggregated using equal weights.

MEDIATION Toolbox

Read more in the Toolbox under the following category:

Vulnerability indication

Toolbox detail page(s) available for:

BACLIAT
CARAVAN
Case steps (Europe)

Case study steps identified for task 'Vulnerability and capacity analysis'.

NE1 - Vulnerability of the elderly
Exploring risks: In which regions are elderly likely to be vulnerable to the future impacts of climate change?
External cases (global)


This section is based on the UNEP PROVIA guidance document


Criteria checklist

1. You want to assess vulnerability.
2. Your focus is on impacts.
3. Either no studies on future impacts are available, or available studies are not comprehensive or credible.
4. Impact models to simulate future impacts are not available.
5. Data on observed impacts is available.
6. Detection and attribution have been performed.
7. There is no trend can attributable to climate change.
Training material