PIK Sea Level Pages

Rahmstorf, S., G. Feulner, 2013: Paleoclimatic Ocean Circulation and Sea-Level Changes In: Ocean Circulation and Climate, Editors: Siedler, G., S.M. Griffies, J. Gould, J.A. Church: Oxford : Academic Press. p. 31-56.

Reports

Church, J.A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A. Milne, R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn, A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, D. Stammer, A.S. Unnikrishnan , 2013: Chapter 13: Sea-level change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Editors: T. Stocker et al., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC.

Levermann, A., Bamber, J., Drijfhout, S., Ganopolski, A., Haeberli,W., Harris, N.R.P., Huss, M., Krüger, K., Lenton, T., Lindsay, R.W., Notz, D., Wadhams, P., Weber, S., 2010: Climatic Tipping Elements with potential impact on Europe, Technical Paper No. 3 to the 'State Of the Environment Report 2010' of the European Environmental Agency, Juli 2010, 40 pages.

WBGU - German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2013: World in Transition: Governing the Marine Heritage. Berlin: WBGU. 362 pages.

WBGU - German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2006: The Future Oceans - Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour. Berlin: WBGU. 110 pages.

Papers in scientific journals

2018

Zou, Y., Macau, E.E.N., Sampaio, G., Ramos, A.M.T., Kurths, J. 2018: Characterizing the exceptional 2014 drought event in São Paulo by drought period length. Climate Dynamics, 51, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3932-2.

Clark, P.U., Mix, A.C., Eby, W., Levermann, A., Rogeli, J., Wrathall, D.J. 2018: Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy. Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0226-6.

Piecucha, C.G., Bittermann, K, Kemp, A.C., Ponte, R.M., Little, C.M., Engelhart, S.E., Lentz, S.J. 2018: River-discharge effects on United States Atlantic and Gulf coast sea-level changes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 115, 30, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1805428115.

Kingslake, J., Scherer, R.P., Albrecht, T., Coenen, J., Powell, R.D., Reese, R., Stansell, N.D., Tulaczyk, S., Wearing, M.G., Whitehouse, P.L. 2018: Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene. Nature, 558, 7710, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0208-x.

Pfleiderer, P., Schleussner, C.F., Mengel, M., Rogeli, J.2018: Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks. Environmental Research Letters 13, Art.064015, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aac319.

Ozturk, U., Marwan, N., Specht, S.von, Korup, O., Jensen, J. 2018: A new centennial sea-level record for Antalya, Eastern Mediterranean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, DOI: 10.1029/2018JC013906.

Gölzer, H., Nowicki, S., Edwards, T, Beckley, M., Abe-Ouchi, A, Aschwanden, A., Calov, R., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F. Golledge, N.R., Gregory, J., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Kennedy, J.H., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W.H., Le clec’h, S., Lee, V., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Payne, A.J., Rodehacke, C., Rückamp, W., Saito, F., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Sun, S., Wal, R.van de, Ziemen, F.A. 2018: Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison. The Cryosphere, 12, 4, DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018.

Rasmussen, D.J., Bittermann, K., Buchanan, M.K, Kulp, S., Strauss, B.H, Kopp, R.E., Oppenheimer, M. 2018: Extreme sea level implications of 1.5?°C, 2.0?°C, and 2.5?°C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 3, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaac87.

Prahl, B.F., Boettle, M., Costa, L., Kropp, J.P., Rybski, D. 2018: Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities. Nature Scientific Data, 5, 180034 DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.34.

Calov, R., Beyer, S., Greve, R., Beckmann, J., Willeit, M., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Humbert, A., Ganopolski, A. 2018: Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model. The Cryosphere Discussions, DOI: 10.5194/tc-2018-23.

Mengel, M., Nauels, A., Rogeli, J., Schleussner, C.F. 2018: Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action. Nature Communications, 9, 601, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8.

Reese, R., Gudmundsson, G.H., Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R. 2018: The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica. Nature Climate Change, 8, 1, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x.

Beckmann, J., Parrette, M., Ganopolski, A. 2018: Simple models for the simulation of submarine melt for a Greenland glacial system model. The Cryosphere, 12, 1, DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-301-2018.

2017

Slangen, ABA., Adloff, F., Jevrejeva, S., Leclercq, PW., Marzeion, B., Wada, Y., Winkelmann, R., 2017: A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales. SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS, 38, 1, 385-406, SI, DOI:10.1007/s10712-016-9374-2.

James, R., Washington, R., Schleussner, CF., Rogelj, J., Conway, D., 2017: Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE, 8, 2, e457, DOI:10.1002/wcc.457.

Lenk, S., Rybski, D., Heidrich, O., Dawson, RJ., Kropp, JP., 2017: Costs of sea dikes - regressions and uncertainty estimates. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 17, 5, 765-779, DOI:10.5194/nhess-17-765-2017.

Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Lorbacher, K., Wigley, TML., 2017: Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 10, 6, 2495-2524, DOI:10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017.

Willink, D., Khan, V., Donner, RV., 2017: Improved one-month lead-time forecasting of the SPI over Russia with pressure covariates based on the SL-AV model. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 143, 707, 2636-2649, B, DOI:10.1002/qj.3114.

Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Montoya, M., 2017: MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet. CNATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 8, 16008, DOI:10.1038/ncomms16008.

Bauer, Eva, Ganopolski, Andrey, 2017: Comparison of surface mass balance of ice sheets simulated by positive-degree-day method and energy balance approach. CLIMATE OF THE PAST, 13, 7, 819-832, DOI:10.5194/cp-13-819-2017.

Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S., Aich, V., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Fader, M., Hoff, H., Jobbins, G., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Otto, IM., Perrette, M., Rocha, M., Robinson, A., Schleussner, CF., 2017: Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 17, 6, 1623-1638, DOI:10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2.

Reyer, CPO., Adams, S., Albrecht, T., Baarsch, F., Boit, A., Trujillo, NC., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, D., Fernandes, E., Langerwisch, F., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Mira-Salama, D., Perette, M., Pereznieto, P., Rammig, A., Reinhardt, J., Robinson, A., Rocha, M., Sakschewski, B., Schaeffer, M., Schleussner, CF., Serdeczny, O., Thonicke, K., 2017: Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 17, 6, 1601-1621, DOI:10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6.

Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M., Reinhardt, J., 2017: Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 17, 6, 1585-1600, DOI:10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2.

Vinke, K., Martin, MA., Adams, S,. Baarsch, F., Bondeau, A., Coumou, D., Donner, RV., Menon, A., Perrette, M., Rehfeld, K., Robinson, A., Rocha, M., Schaeffer, M., Schwan, S., Serdeczny, O., Svirejeva-Hopkins, A., 2017: Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 17, 6, 1569-1583, DOI:10.1007/s10113-015-0924-9.

Wiedermann, M., Donges, JF., Handorf, D., Kurths, J., Donner, RV., 2017: Hierarchical structures in Northern Hemispheric extratropical winter ocean-atmosphere interactions. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 37, 10, 3821-3836, DOI:10.1002/joc.4956.

Rahmstorf, S, 2017: Rising hazard of storm-surge flooding. TPROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 114, 45, 11806-11808, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1715895114.

2016

Mengel, M., Feldmann, J., Levermann, A., 2016: Linear sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of major West Antarctic ice basin. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 6, 1, 71-+, DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE2808.

Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Franzke, CLE., Schellnhuber, HJ., 2016: Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica. CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 46, 1-2, 263-271, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5.

Boettle, M., Rybski, D., Kropp, JP., 2016: Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence-a point process perspective on coastal flood damage. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 16, 2, 559-576, DOI:10.5194/nhess-16-559-2016.

Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Levermann, A., 2016: Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, 7, 1, 203-210, DOI:10.5194/esd-7-203-2016.

Prahl, BF., Rybski, D., Boettle, M., Kropp, JP., 2016: Damage functions for climate-related hazards: unification and uncertainty analysis. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 16, 5, 1189-1203, DOI:10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016.

Schleussner, CF., Lissner, TK., Fischer, EM., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., 2016: Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C. EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, 7, 2, 327-351, DOI:10.5194/esd-7-327-2016.

Barbosa, SM., Donner, RV., 2016: Long-term changes in the seasonality of Baltic sea level. TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, 68, 30540, DOI:10.3402/tellusa.v68.30540.

Asay-Davis, XS., Cornford, SL., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, BK., Gladstone, RM., Gudmundsson, GH., Hattermann, T., Holland, DM., Holland, D., Holland, PR., Martin, DF., Mathiot, P., Pattyn, F., Seroussi, H., 2016: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP+), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP+) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1). GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 9, 7, 2471-2497, DOI:10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016.

Hansen, G., Stone, D., Auffhammer, M., Huggel, C., Cramer, W., 2016: Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 16, 2, 527-541, DOI:10.1007/s10113-015-0760-y.

Brown, S., Nicholls, RJ., Lowe, JA., Hinkel, J., 2016: Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA. REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, 134, 3, 403-416, DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y.

Berger, A., Crucifix, M., Hodell, DA., Mangili, C., McManus, JF., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pol, K., Raynaud, D., Skinner, LC., Tzedakis, PC., Wolff, EW., Yin, QZ., Abe-Ouchi, A., Barbante, C., Brovkin, V., Cacho, I., Capron, E., Ferretti, P., Ganopolski, A., Grimalt, JO., Honisch, B., Kawamura, K., Landais, A., Margari, V., Martrat, B., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mokeddem, Z., Parrenin, F., Prokopenko, AA., Rashid, H., Schulz, M., Riveiros, NV., 2016: Interglacials of the last 800,000years. REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, 54, 1, 162-219, DOI:10.1002/2015RG000482.

Strauss, BH., Kulp, S., Levermann, A., 2016: REPLY TO BOYD ET AL.: Large long-term sea level projections do not mean giving up on coastal cities. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 113, 10, E1330-E1330, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1601065113.

Mengel, M., Levermann, A., Frieler, K., Robinson, A., Marzeion, B., Winkelmann, R., 2016: Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 113, 10, 2597-2602, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1500515113.

Kopp, RE., Kemp, AC., Bittermann, K., Horton, BP., Donnelly, JP., Gehrels, WR., Hay, CC., Mitrovica, JX., Morrow, ED., Rahmstorf, S., 2016: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 113, 11, E1434-E1441, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1517056113.

Clark, PU., Shakun, JD., Marcott, SA., Mix, AC., Eby, M., Kulp, S., Levermann, A., Milne, GA., Pfister, PL., Santer, BD., Schrag, DP., Solomon, S., Stocker, TF., Strauss, BH., Weaver, AJ., Winkelmann, R., Archer, D., Bard, E., Goldner, A., Lambeck, K., Pierrehumbert, RT., Plattner, GK., 2016: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 6, 4, 360-369, DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE2923.

Kretschmer, M., Coumou, D., Donges, JF., Runge, J., 2016: Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 29, 11, 4069-4081, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1.

Steffen, W., Leinfelder, R., Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, CN., Williams, M., Summerhayes, C., Barnosky, AD., Cearreta, A., Crutzen, P., Edgeworth, M., Ellis, EC., Fairchild, IJ., Galuszka, A., Grinevald, J., Haywood, A., do Sul, JI., Jeandel, C., McNeill, JR., Odada, E., Oreskes, N., Revkin, A., Richter, DD., Syvitski, J., Vidas, D., Wagreich, M., Wing, SL., Wolfe, AP., Schellnhuber, HJ., 2016: Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene. EARTHS FUTURE, 4, 8, 324-345, DOI:10.1002/2016EF000379.

Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., 2016: A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets. CRYOSPHERE, 10, 4, 1799-1807, DOI:10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016.

Yau, AM., Bender, ML., Robinson, A., Brook, EJ., 2016: Reconstructing the last interglacial at Summit, Greenland: Insights from GISP2. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 113, 35, 9710-9715, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1524766113.

Schleussner, CF., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Lissner, T., Licker, R., Fischer, EM., Knutti, R., Levermann, A., Frieler, K., Hare, W., 2016: Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 6, 9, 827-835, DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE3096.

Di Capua, G., Coumou, D., 2016: Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 11, 9, 094028, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028.

Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., 2016: PALADYN v1.0, a comprehensive land surface-vegetation-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 9, 10, 3817-3857, DOI:10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016.

Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Tigchelaar, M., Timm, OE., Ganopolski, A., 2016: Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming. SCIENCE ADVANCES, 2, 11, e1501923, DOI:10.1126/sciadv.1501923.

Dinniman, MS., Asay-Davis, XS., Galton-Fenzi, BK., Holland, PR., Jenkins, A., Timmermann, R., 2016: Modeling Ice Shelf/Ocean in Antarctica A REVIEW. OCEANOGRAPHY, 29, 4, 144-153, SI, DOI:10.5670/oceanog.2016.106.

2015

Bierkandt, R., Auffhammer, M., A. Levermann, 2015: US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise. Environmental Research Letters, 10, 124022, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124022.

Strauss, B., Kulp, S., A. Levermann, 2015: Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 44, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1511186112.

Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, A., Caldaira, K. 2015: Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science Advances, 1, e1500589, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1500589.

Lorbacher, K., Nauels, A., M. Meinshausen, 2015: Complementing thermosteric sea level rise estimates. Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 9, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-2723-2015.

Hansen, G. 2015: The evolution of the evidence base for observed impacts of climate change. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2015.05.005.

Krapp, M., Jungclaus, J.H. 2015: Pacific variability under present-day and Middle Miocene boundary conditions. Climate Dynamics, 44, 9, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2456-2.

Zimmer, A., Jakob, M., Steckel, J.C.2015: What motivates Vietnam to strive for a low-carbon economy? - On the drivers of climate policy in a developing country. Energy for Sustainable Development, 24, DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2014.10.003.

Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A.2015: Coupled Northern Hemisphere permafrost–ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle. Climate of the Past, 11, 9, DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015.

Calov, R., A. Robinson, M. Perrette, A. Ganopolski, 2015: Simulating the Greenland ice sheet under present-day and palaeo constraints including a new discharge parameterization. The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, DOI:10.5194/tc-9-179-2015.

Dutton, A., A. E. Carlson, A. J. Long, G. A. Milne, P. U. Clark, R. DeConto, B. P. Horton, S. Rahmstorf, M. E. Raymo, 2015: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods. Science, 349, DOI:10.1126/science.aaa4019.

Feldmann, J., A. Levermann, 2015: Interaction of marine ice-sheet instabilities in two drainage basins: simple scaling of geometry and transition time. The Cryosphere, 9, 631-645, DOI:10.5194/tc-9-631-2015.

Martin, M.A., A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, 2015: Comparing ice discharge through West Antarctic Gateways: Weddell vs. Amundsen Sea warming. The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1705-1733, DOI:10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015.

Frieler, K., P.U. Clark, F. He, C. Buizert, R. Reese, S.R.M. Ligtenberg, M.R. van den Broeke, R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, 2015: Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming. Nature Climate Change 5, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2574.

Rahmstorf, S., J.E. Box, G. Feulner, M.E. Mann, A. Robinson, S. Rutherford, E.J. Schaffernicht, 2015: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5, 475–480, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2554.

Willeit W., A. Ganopolski, R.Calov, A. Robinson, M. Maslin, 2015: The role of CO2 decline for the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Quaternary Science Reviews, 119, 22-34, DOI:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.015.

2014

Albrecht, T., A. Levermann, 2014: Fracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics. The Cryosphere, 8, 587–605, DOI:10.5194/tc-8-587-2014.

Albrecht, T., A. Levermann, 2014: Spontaneous ice-front retreat induced by disintegration of adjacent ice shelf in Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 393, 26-30, DOI:10.1016/j.epsl.2014.02.034.

Dangendorf, S., D. Rybski, C. Mudersbach, A. Müller, E. Kaufmann, E. Zorita, J. Jensen, 2014: Evidence for long-term memory in sea level. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5530–5537, DOI:10.1002/ 2014GL060538.

Ehlert, D., A. Levermann, 2014: Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse. Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 383–397, DOI:10.5194/esd-5-383-2014.

Feldmann, J., T. Albrecht, C. Khroulev, F. Pattyn, A. Levermann, 2014: Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared to a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison. Journal of Glaciology, 60, DOI:10.3189/2014JoG13J093.

Hinkel, J., D. Linke, A.T. Vafeidis, M. Perrette, R.J. Nicholls, R. Tol, B. Marzeion, X. Fettweis, C. Ionescu, A. Levermann, 2014: Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3292-3297, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1222469111.

Horton, B. P., S. Rahmstorf, S. E. Engelhart, and A. C. Kemp, 2014: Reply to comment received from JM Gregory et al. regarding "Expert assessment of future sea-level rise by 2100 and 2300 AD". Quatern. Sci. Rev., 97, 195-196, DOI:10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.05.025.

Horton, B.P., S. Rahmstorf, S.E. Engelhart, A.C. Kemp, 2014: Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quaternary Science Reviews, 84, DOI:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.11.002.

Levermann, A., R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H.H. Hellmer, M.A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A.J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W.L. Wang, R.A. Bindschadler, 2014: Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models. Earth System Dynamics, 5, 271-293, DOI:10.5194/esd-5-271-2014.

Marzeion, B., A. Levermann, 2014: Loss of Cultural World Heritage and currently inhabited places to sea-level rise. Environmental Research Letters, 9, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034001. List of UNESCO sites .

Mengel, M., A. Levermann, 2014: Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica. Nature Climate Change, 4, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2226.

Ribeiro, A., S.M. Barbosa, M.G. Scotto, R.V. Donner, 2014: Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea. Tellus, 66, DOI:10.3402/tellusa.v66.20921.

Rosier, S.H.R., J.A.M. Green, J.D. Scourse, R. Winkelmann, 2014: Modeling Antarctic tides in response to ice shelf thinning and retreat. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119, DOI:10.1002/2013JC009240.

Schleussner, C.F., A. Levermann, M. Meinshausen, 2014: Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning. Climatic Change Letters, 125, DOI:10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2.

2013

Albrecht, T., A. Levermann, 2013: Fracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics. The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4501-4544, DOI:10.5194/tcd-7-4501-2013.

Becker, A.H., M. Acciaro, R. Asariotis, E. Cabrera, L. Cretegny, P. Crist, M. Esteban, A. Mather, S. Messner, S. Naruse, A.K.Y. Ng, S. Rahmstorf, M. Savonis, D.-W. Song, V. Stenek and A.F. Velegrakis, 2013: A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society. Climatic Change, 120, 683-695, DOI:10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1.

Bindschadler, R.A., S. Nowicki, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Aschwanden, E. Bueler, H. Choi, J. Fastook, G. Granzow, R. Greve, G. Gutowski, C. Jackson, J. Johnson, A. Levermann, W.H. Lipscomb, M.A. Martin, M. Morlighem, B. Parizek, D. Pollard, S.F. Price, D. Ren, F. Saito, H. Seroussi, K. Takahashi, R. Walker, W.L. Wang, U. Herzfeld, H. Seddik, T. Sato , 2013: Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea-level (The SeaRISE Project). Journal of Glaciology, 59, 195-224, DOI:10.3189/2013JoG12J125.

Bittermann, K., S. Rahmstorf, M. Perrette, M. Vermeer, 2013: Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, open access, 014013, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014013.

Boettle, M., D. Rybski, J.P. Kropp, 2013: How changing sea level extremes and protection measures alter coastal flood damages. Water Resources Research, 49, 1199–1210, DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20108.

Hinkel, J., D.P. van Vuuren, R. J. Nicholls et al., 2013: The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models. Climatic Change, 117, 783-794, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0564-8.

Levermann, A., P.U. Clark, B. Marzeion, G. Milne, D. Pollard, V. Radic, A. Robinson, 2013: The multi-millennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 13745–13750, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1219414110.

Nowicki, S., R.A. Bindschadler, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Aschwanden, E. Bueler, H. Choi, J. Fastook, G. Granzow, R. Greve, G. Gutowski, U. Herzfeld, C. Jackson, J. Johnson, C. Khroulev, E. Larour, A. Levermann, W.H. Lipscomb, M.A. Martin, M. Morlighem, B. Parizek, D. Pollard, S.F. Price, D. Ren, E. Rignot, F. Saito, T. Sato, H. Seddik, H. Seroussi, K. Takahashi, R. Walker, W.L. Wang, 2013: Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II: Greenland. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 1025–1044, DOI:10.1002/jgrf.20076.

Nowicki, S., R.A. Bindschadler, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Aschwanden, E. Bueler, H. Choi, J. Fastook, G. Granzow, R. Greve, G. Gutowski, U. Herzfeld, C. Jackson, J. Johnson, A. Levermann, W.H. Lipscomb, M.A. Martin, M. Morlighem, B. Parizek, D. Pollard, S.F. Price, D. Ren, E. Rignot, F. Saito, T. Sato, H. Seddik, H. Seroussi, K. Takahashi, R. Walker, W.L. Wang, 2013: Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project I: Antarctica . Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 1002–1024, DOI:10.1002/jgrf.20081.

Perrette, M., F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, 2013: A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties. Earth System Dynamics, 4, 11-29, DOI: 10.5194/esd-4-11-2013.

Willeit, M., A. Ganopolski, G. Feulner, 2013: On the effect of orbital forcing on mid-Pliocene climate, vegetation and ice sheets. Climate of the past, 9, 1749-1759, DOI: 10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013.

Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, 2013: Linear response functions to project contributions to future sea level. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2579–2588, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1471-4.

Zickfeld, K., M. Eby, A. J. Weaver et al. et al., 2013: Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 26, 5782-5809 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1.

2012

Albrecht, T. and A. Levermann, 2012: Fracture field for large-scale ice dynamics. Journal of Glaciology 58, 165-176, 207, DOI:10.3189/2012JoG11J191.

Brovkin, V., A. Ganopolski, D. Archer, G. Munhoven, 2012: Glacial CO2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes. Climate of the Past, 8, 251-264, DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-251-2012

Donner, R.V., R. Ehrcke, S.M. Barbosa et al, 2012: Spatial patterns of linear and nonparametric long-term trends in Baltic sea-level variability. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 95-111, DOI: 10.5194/npg-19-95-2012

Hinkel, J., S. Brown, L. Exner et al., 2012: Projecting Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. Regional Environmental Change, 12, 207-224, DOI: 10.1007/s10113-011-0249-2.

Kienert, H., S. Rahmstorf, 2012: On the relation between Meridional Overturning Circulation and sea-level gradients in the Atlantic. Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 109-120, DOI:10.5194/esd-3-109-2012.

Levermann, A., R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H.H. Hellmer, M.A. Martin, M. Mengel, A.J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W.L. Wang, R.A. Bindschadler, 2012: Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models. The Cryosphere Discussions, 3447-3489, DOI:10.5194/tcd-6-3447-2012.

Levermann, A., J. Bamber, S. Drijfhout, A. Ganopolski, W. Haeberli, N.R.P. Harris, M. Huss, K. Krüger, T. Lenton, R.W. Lindsay, D. Notz, P. Wadhams, S. Weber, 2012: Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe - Review of the current state of six 'tipping elements of the climate system'. Climatic Change, 110, 845-878, DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0126-5.

Levermann, A., T. Albrecht, R. Winkelmann, M. A. Martin, M. Haseloff, I. Joughin, 2012: Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat. The Cryosphere, 6, 273-286, DOI:10.5194/tc-6-273-2012.

Rahmstorf, S., G. Foster and A. Cazenave, 2012: Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011.Environmental Research Letters, 7, 044035, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035.

Robinson, A., R. Calov, A. Ganopolski, 2012: Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet. .Nature Climate Change, 2, 429-432, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1449.

Schaeffer, M., W. Hare, S. Rahmstorf, and M. Vermeer, 2012: Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels. Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/nclimate1584.

Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, M.A. Martin, K. Frieler, 2012: Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall. Nature, 492, 239-242, DOI:10.1038/nature11616.

Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, 2012: Linear response functions to project contributions to future sea level. Climate Dynamics, 38, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1471-4, online first.

Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, K. Frieler, and M.A. Martin, 2012: Uncertainty in future solid ice discharge from Antarctica. The Cryosphere Discussions, 6, 673-714; DOI 10.5194/tcd-6-673-2012.

2011

Förster, H., T. Sterzel, C.A. Pape, M. Moneo-Lain, I. Niemeyer, R. Boer and J.P. Kropp, 2011: Sea-level rise in Indonesia: on adaptation priorities in the agricultural sector. Regional Environmental Change, DOI:10.1007/s10113-011-0226-9.

Hare, W.L. et al., 2011: Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming. Regional Environmental Change 11, S1-S13.

Kemp, A. et al., 2011: Reply to Grinsted et al.: Estimating land subsidence in North Carolina. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA 108, E783.

Kemp, A. et al., 2011: Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA, doi:10.1073/pnas.1015619108.

Martin, M.A., R. Winkelmann, M. Haseloff, T. Albrecht, E. Bueler, C. Khroulev, A. Levermann, 2011: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), Part II: Dynamical Equilibrium Simulation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 5, 727-740.

Meinshausen, M., S.C.B. Raper, and T.M.L. Wigley, 2011: Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-Part 1: Model description and calibration. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11, 1417-1456.

Nicholls, R.J. et al., 2011: Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4 degrees C world' in the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 369, 161-181.

Rahmstorf, S. and M. Vermeer, 2011: Discussion of: Houston, J.R. and Dean, R.G., 2011: Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research 27, 784–787.

Rahmstorf, S., M. Perrette, and M. Vermeer, 2011: Testing the Robustness of Semi-Empirical Sea Level Projections. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7.

Scheffran, J. and A. Battaglini, 2011: Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming. Regional Environmental Change 11, S27-S39.

Schewe, J., A. Levermann and M. Meinshausen, 2011: Climate change under a scenario near 1.5°C of global warming: Monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise. Earth System Dynamics 2, 25-35.

Schleussner, C.F., K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, J. Xin, A. Levermann, 2011: Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast Earth System Dynamics 2, 191-200.

Winkelmann, R., M.A. Martin, M. Haseloff, T. Albrecht, E. Bueler, C. Khroulev, A. Levermann, 2011: The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), Part I: Model Description The Cryosphere 5, 715-726.

2010

Ganopolski, A., R. Calov, and M. Claussen, 2010: Simulation of the last glacial cycle with a coupled climate ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity. Climate of the Past 6, 229-244.

Hattermann, T. and A. Levermann, 2010: Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica. Climate Dynamics, 35 (2010), 741-756.

Hinkel, J. et al., 2010: Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15, 703-719.

Margari, V. et al., 2010: The nature of millennial-scale climate variability during the past two glacial periods. Nature Geoscience 3, 127-131.

McLeod, E. et al., 2010: Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle. Sustainability Science 5, 207-222.

McLeod, E. et al., 2010: Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications. Ocean & Coastal Management 53, 507-517.

Robinson, A., R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski, 2010: An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change. Cryosphere 4, 129-144.

Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf, 2010: Reply to Taboada and Anadon: Critique of sea-level rise study invalid. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107, E118-E118.

2009

Costa, L., V. Tekken, and J. Kropp, 2009: Threat of Sea Level Rise: Costs and Benefits of Adaptation in European Union Coastal Countries. Journal of Coastal Research, 223-227.

Fussel, H.M., 2009: An updated assessment of the risks from climate change based on research published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Climatic Change 97, 469-482.

Hinkel, J. and R.J.T. Klein, 2009: Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 19, 384-395.

Kuhlbrodt, T. et al., 2009: An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change 96, 489-537.

Kundzewicz, Z.W. and P. Doll, 2009: Will groundwater ease freshwater stress under climate change? Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 54, 665-675.

Poulter, B. et al., 2009: Sea-level rise research and dialogue in North Carolina: Creating windows for policy change. Ocean & Coastal Management 52, 147-153.

Smith, J.B. et al., 2009: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern''. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 4133-4137.

Tekken, V., L. Costa, and J.P. Kropp, 2009: Assessing the Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Economic Sectors in the Low-lying Coastal Zone of Mediterranean East Morocco. Journal of Coastal Research, 272-276.

Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf, 2009: Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 21527-21532.

2008

Archer, D. and V. Brovkin, 2008: The millennial atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. Climatic Change 90, 283-297.

Bohm, U. et al., 2008: Quality of a climate reconstruction for the CADSES regions. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 17, 477-485.

de la Vega-Leinert, A.C. and R.J. Nicholls, 2008: Potential implications of sea-level rise for Great Britain. Journal of Coastal Research 24, 342-357.

Lenton, T.M. et al., 2008: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105, 1786-1793.

Nicholls, R.J. and A.C. de la Vega-Leinert, 2008: Implications of sea-level rise for Europe's coasts: An introduction. Journal of Coastal Research 24, 285-287.

Plattner, G.K. et al., 2008: Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models. Journal of Climate 21, 2721-2751.

Poulter, B., N.L. Christensen, and S.S. Qian, 2008: Tolerance of Pinus taeda and Pinus serotina to low salinity and flooding: Implications for equilibrium vegetation dynamics. Journal of Vegetation Science 19, 15-22.

Poulter, B., J.L. Goodall, and P.N. Halpin, 2008: Applications of network analysis for adaptive management of artificial drainage systems in landscapes vulnerable to sea level rise. Journal of Hydrology 357, 207-217.

Poulter, B. and P.N. Halpin, 2008: Raster modelling of coastal flooding from sea-level rise. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 22, 167-182.

Vafeidis, A.T. et al., 2008: A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research 24, 917-924.

2007

Arz, H.W. et al., 2007: Dominant Northern Hemisphere climate control over millennial-scale glacial sea-level variability. Quaternary Science Reviews 26, 312-321.

Brovkin, V., A. Ganopolski, D. Archer, and S. Rahmstorf, 2007: Lowering of glacial atmospheric CO2 in response to changes in oceanic circulation and marine biogeochemistry. Paleoceanography 22.

Rahmstorf, S., 2007: Response to comments on "A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise". Science 317.

Rahmstorf, S., 2007: A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315, 368-370.

Rahmstorf, S. et al., 2007: Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316, 709-709.

Zickfeld, K. et al., 2007: Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change. Climatic Change 82, 235-265.

2006

Clark, P.U. et al., 2006: The middle Pleistocene transition: characteristics. mechanisms, and implications for long-term changes in atmospheric PCO2. Quaternary Science Reviews 25, 3150-3184.

Kubatzki, C., M. Claussen, R. Calov, and A. Ganopolski, 2006: Sensitivity of the last glacial inception to initial and surface conditions. Climate Dynamics 27, 333-344.

2005

Calov, R. et al., 2005: Transient simulation of the last glacial inception. Part I: glacial inception as a bifurcation in the climate system. Climate Dynamics 24, 545-561.

Calov, R. et al., 2005: Transient simulation of the last glacial inception. Part II: sensitivity and feedback analysis. Climate Dynamics 24, 563-576.

Levermann, A. et al., 2005: Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climate Dynamics 24, 347-354.

2003

Bruckner, T., G. Hooss, H.M. Fussel, and K. Hasselmann, 2003: Climate system modeling in the framework of the tolerable windows approach: The ICLIPS climate model. Climatic Change 56, 119-137.

2002

Calov, R. et al., 2002: Large-scale instabilities of the Laurentide ice sheet simulated in a fully coupled climate-system model. Geophysical Research Letters 29.

2001

Klein, R.J.T. et al., 2001: Technological options for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones. Journal of Coastal Research 17, 531-543.

2000

Montoya, M., H. von Storch, and T.J. Crowley, 2000: Climate simulation for 125 kyr BP with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Journal of Climate 13, 1057-1072.

Savvin, A. et al., 2000: Simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet with a three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model, in support of the EPICA project. II. Nested high-resolution treatment of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. In Annals of Glaciology, Vol 30, 2000, K. Hutter, Editor. p. 69-75.

1999

Klein, R.J.T. and R.J. Nicholls, 1999: Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio 28, 182-187.

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