PROVIA / MEDIATION Toolbox

Characterising other environmental and socio-economic futures
You are here: Home / Toolbox / Details
Toolbox home
References
2 detail pages
In parallel with future climate, it is also important to characterise future environmental and societal conditions that may influence vulnerability, impacts and risk management in general. Scenarios of these other factors have been categorised by Carter et al. (2007) and are summarised in Table 3-3 along with some examples of their application in VIA assessments. Many of the same issues as for climate, regarding data availability and temporal and spatial dimensions (e.g. van Vuuren et al., 2010), also apply to these scenarios.

Table 3-3. Types of scenarios of future environmental and societal developments adopted for
VIA assessments and examples of their application.

Type of scenario Examples of scenario
development methods		 Examples of scenario applications
Atmospheric
composition		 CO2 concentration (IMAGE-team,
2001)		 Impacts on ecosystems and agriculture
(Schröter et al., 2005)
Sea-level Guidance on sea-level scenario
development (Nicholls et al.,
2011)		 Economic impacts on coastal systems in
Europe (Richards and Nicholls, 2009)
Socio-economic Population (O’Neill, 2005) Human health impacts in Europe
(Watkiss et al., 2009)
Land-use Land use scenarios for Europe
(Audsley et al., 2006)		 Vulnerability of agricultural land use and
natural species (Berry et al., 2006)
Technology Crop yield potential (Ewert et al.,
2006)		 Crop productivity and agricultural land
use in Europe (Rounsevell et al., 2005)
Adaptation Optimal crop management
(Iglesias et al., 2009)		 Crop productivity in Europe
(Iglesias et al., 2009)


Pathfinder

Related decision tree of the Pathfinder:

Decision tree: Impact analysis

Toolbox detail pages

Access Toolbox detail pages to learn more on selected methods and tools.

Sea-level scenarios
MAGICC/SCENGEN
Dynamical downscaling
PRECIS