Technical Policy Briefing Notes - 9

Adaptation Turning Points


Introduction
Policy Briefs

Adaptation Turning Points
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Introduction

Adaptation has become an integral part of climate change policy. The ultimate scale of the challenge will largely be defined by the development of the world’s economy and greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Both are uncertain, suggesting that planners may have to respond to rises in global mean temperature of 4°C or more (Parry et al., 2009). Adapting to such conditions would be challenging at best (Smith et al., 2011), and may face practically insurmountable physical limits in many places due to loss of ecosystem services and interacting impacts. Climate change shifts the sustainability challenge from preserving natural resources for future generations to strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity in social-ecological systems. The challenge for policy making and sustainable resources management shifts from conservation to managing change and adaptation.

The European Commission FP7 funded MEDIATION project (Methodology for Effective Decision-making on Impacts and AdaptaTION) is advancing the analysis of adaptation issues through its objectives of analysing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and promoting knowledge sharing through a MEDIATION Adaptation Platform. To complement the information on the Platform, a series of Policy Briefing Notes have been produced on Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaptation.

This Policy Briefing Note (Note 9) provides a summary of the assessment of adaptation turning points. It provides a brief synthesis of the approach, its strengths and weaknesses, the relevance for adaptation, how it considers uncertainty, and presents case study examples.It is stressed that this note only provides an overview: more detailed information is available in MEDIATION deliverables, and sources and links on the MEDIATION Adaptation Platform.