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Last updated 26.9.2008 by Wolfgang Cramer
Analysis and
Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling

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ATEAM Publications


Bunce RGH, Metzger MJ, Jongman RHG, Brandt J, De Blust G, Elena-Rossello R, Groom GB, Halada L, Hofer G, Howard DC, Kovár P, Mücher CA, Padoa-Schioppa E, Paelinx D, Palo A, Perez-Soba M, Ramos IL, Roche P, Skånes H, Wrbka T 2008 A standardized procedure for surveillance and monitoring European habitats and provision of spatial data. Landsc Ecol 23:11-25, doi: 10.1007/s10980-007-9173-8

Cramer W, Fritsch U, Leemans R, Lütkemeier S, Schröter D, Watt A 2008 Training future experts in "biodiversity and ecosystem services" - a progress report. Reg Env Change OnlineFirst, doi: 10.1007/s10113-008-0054-8

de la Vega-Leinert AC, Schröter D, Leemans R, Fritsch U & Pluimers J 2008 A stakeholder dialogue on European vulnerability. Reg Env Change OnlineFirst, doi: 10.1007/s10113-008-0047-7

Dendoncker N, van Wesemael B, Lettens S, Roelandt C, Rounsevell MDA & Smith P 2008 Projecting changes in agricultural soil carbon stocks: accounting for land-use change and scale variability. An example for a small region in Belgium. Soil Use & Management 24:8-18, doi: 10.1111/j.1475-2743.2007.00133.x

Eggers J, Lindner M, Zudin S, Zaehle S & Liski J 2008 Impact of changing wood demand, climate and land use on European forest resources and carbon stocks during the 21st century. Gl Ch Biol 14:2288-2303, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01653.x

Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Leemans R & Viner D 2008 Projected environmental shifts under climate change: European trends and regional impacts. Env Cons 35:64-75, doi: 10.1017/S0376892908004529

Metzger MJ, Schröter D, Leemans R, Cramer W 2008 A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe. Reg Env Change, Online-First, doi: 10.1007/s10113-008-0044-x

Pompe S, Hanspach J, Badeck F-W, Klotz S, Thuiller W, Kühn I 2008. Projecting future land use and climate change impacts on plant distribution in Germany. Biol Lett 4:564-567, doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0231

Reidsma P & Ewert F 2008 Regional farm diversity can reduce vulnerability of food production to climate change. Ecology and Society 13(1):38. [online] URL:

Reidsma P, Ewert F, Oude Lansink A, Leemans R 2009 Vulnerability and adaption of European farmers: a multi-level analysis of yield and income responses to climate variability. Reg Env Change OnlineFirst, doi: 10.1007/s10113-008-0059-3

Reidsma P, Oude Lansink A & Ewert F 2008 Economic impacts of climatic variability and subsidies on European agriculture and observed adaptation strategies. Mitigat & Adapt Strat Gl Change doi: 10.1007/s11027-008-9149-2

Rickebusch S, Thuiller W, Hickler T, Araújo MB, Sykes MT, Schweiger O & Lafourcade B 2008 Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models. Biol Lett 4:556-559, doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0105

Smit HJ, Metzger MJ, Ewert F 2008 Spatial distribution of grassland productivity and land use in Europe. Agric Syst, doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2008.07.004

Thürig E & Schmid S 2008 Jährliche CO2-Flüsse im Wald: Berechnungsmethode für das Treibhausgasinventar. Schweiz Zeitschr f Forstw 159:31-38

Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, Guisan G, Hickler T, Midgley GF, Paterson J, Schurr FM, Sykes MT & Zimmermann NE 2008 Predicting global change impacts on plant species distributions: future challenges. Persp Pl Ecol Evol Syst 9:137-152, doi: 10.1016/j.ppees.2007.09.004


Bugmann H, Björnsen A, Ewert F, Haeberli W, Guisan A, Fagre D, Kääb A & GLOCHAMORE participants 2007 Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in Mountain Biosphere Reserves. Mountain Res & Devel 27:66-77

Eggers J, Lindner M, Zaehle S, Zudin S, Liski J, Nabuurs G-J 2007 Forestry in Europe under changing climate and land use. In: Freer-Smith PH, Broadmeadow MSJ, Lynch JM (Eds.) Forestry and Climate Change. CABI Wallingford, UK, pp. 112-118

Ewert F, Porter JR & Rounsevell MDA 2007 Crop Models, CO2, and Climate Change. Science 315:459c-460. doi: 10.1126/science.315.5811.459c

Reidsma P 2007 Adaptation to climate change: European agriculture. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen. On-line

Reidsma P, Ewert F & Oude Lansink A 2007 Analysis of farm performance in Europe under different climatic and management conditions to improve understanding of adaptive capacity. Clim Change 84:403-422, doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9242-7

Smith P, Chapman SJ, Scott WA, Black HIJ, Wattenbach M, Milne R, Campbell CD, Lilly A, Ostle N, Levy P, Lumsdon DG, Millard P, Towers W, Zaehle S & Smith JU 2007 Climate change cannot be entirely responsible for soil carbon loss observed in England and Wales, 1978-2003. Gl Ch Biol 13:2605-2609, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01458.x

Thuiller W 2007 Biodiversity - Climate Change and the Ecologist. Nature 448:550-552, doi: 10.1038/448550a

Verboom J, Alkemade R, Klijn J, Metzger MJ & Reijnen R 2007 Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries. Ecol Econom 62:267-276, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.04.009

Zaehle S, Bondeau A, Carter TR, Cramer W, Erhard M, Prentice IC, Reginster I, Rounsevell MDA, Sitch S, Smith B, Smith PC, Sykes M 2007 Projected changes in terrestrial carbon storage in Europe under climate and land use change, 1990-2100. Ecosystems 10:380-401, doi: 10.1007/s10021-007-9028-9

Zierl B & Bugmann H 2007 Sensitivity of carbon cycling in the European Alps to changes of climate and land cover. Clim Change 85:195-212, doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9201-8

Zierl B, Bugmann H & Tague CL 2007 Evaluation of water and carbon fluxes in the ecohydrological model RHESSys. Hydrol Proc 21(24):3328-3339, doi: 10.1002/hyp.6540


Anderson NJ, Bugmann H, Dearing JA & Gaillard M-J 2006 Linking models and palaeoenvironmental data to understand the past and to predict the future. Trends Ecol & Evol 21:696-704, doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.005

Araújo MB, Thuiller W & Pearson RG 2006 Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. J Biogeogr 33;1712-1728, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01482.x

Heikkinen RK, Luoto M, Araújo MB, Virkkala R, Thuiller W & Sykes MT 2006 Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modeling under climate change. Progr Phys Geogr 30:751-777, doi: 10.1177/0309133306071957

Jongman RHG, Bunce RGH, Metzger MJ, Mücher CA, Howard DC & Mateus VL 2006 Objectives and applications of a statistical environmental stratification of Europe. Landsc Ecol 21:409-419, doi: 10.1007/s10980-005-6428-0

Metzger MJ, Rounsevell MDA, Acosta-Michlik L, Leemans R & Schröter D 2006 The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agric Ecosyst & Environm 114:69-85, doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.025

Metzger MJ & Schröter D 2006 Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe. Reg Env Change 6:210-216, doi: 10.1007/s10113-006-0020-2

Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Araújo MB, Martinez-Meyer E, Brotons L, McClean C, Miles L, Segurado P, Dawson TE & Lees DC 2006 Model-based uncertainty in species' range prediction. J Biogeogr 33:1704-1711, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x

Reidsma P, Tekelenburg T, Van den Berg M & Alkemade JRM 2006 Impacts of land-use change on biodiversity: An assessment of agricultural biodiversity in the European Union. Agric Ecosyst & Environm 114:86-102, doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.026

Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I, Araújo MB, Carter TR, Dendoncker N, Ewert F, House JI, Kankanpää S, Leemans R, Metzger MJ, Schmit C, Smith P & Tuck G 2006 A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agric Ecosyst & Environm 114:57-68, doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.027

Schmid S, Thürig E, Kaufmann E, Lischke H & Bugmann H 2006 Effect of forest management on future carbon pools and fluxes: A model comparison. For Ecol & Management 237:65-82, doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.09.028

Schmid S, Zierl B & Bugmann H 2006 Analyzing the carbon dynamics of central European forests: comparison of Biome-BGC simulations with measurements. Reg Env Change 6:167-180, doi: 10.1007/s10113-006-0017-x

Schmid S, Zingg A, Biber P & Bugmann H 2006 Validation of the forest growth model SILVA 2.2 with data from test sites along an elevational gradient in Switzerland. Eur J For Res 125:43-55, doi: 10.1007/s10342-005-0076-4

Schumacher S & Bugmann H 2006 The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Gl Ch Biol 12:1435-1450, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01188.x

Schumacher S, Reineking B, Sibold J & Bugmann H 2006 Modeling the impact of climate and vegetation on fire regimes in mountain landscapes. Landsc Ecol 21:539-554, doi: 10.1007/s10980-005-2165-7

Smith P, Smith JU, Wattenbach M, Meyer J, Lindner M, Zaehle S, Hiederer R, Jones R, Montanarella L, Rounsevell M, Reginster I, Kankaanpää S 2006 Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European forests, 1990-2100. Can J Soil Sci 86:159-169

Thonicke K, Cramer W 2006 Long-term trends in vegetation dynamics and forest fires in Brandenburg (Germany) under a changing climate. Nat Haz 38(1-2):283-300, doi: 10.1007/s11069-005-8639-8

Thürig E & Schelhaas M-J 2006 Evaluation of a large-scale forest scenario model in heterogeneous forests: a case study for Switzerland. Can J For Res 36:671-683, doi: 10.1139/X05-283

Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Sykes MT & Araújo MB 2006 Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe. Divers & Distr 12:49-60, doi: 10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00216.x

Tuck G, Glendining MJ, Smith P, House JI & Wattenbach M 2006 The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate. Biomass & Bioenergy 30:183-197, doi: 10.1016/j.biombioe.2005.11.019

Welp M, de la Vega-Leinert AC, Stoll-Kleemann S, Fürstenau C & Hoff H 2006 Science-based Stakeholder Dialogues in Climate Change Research. In: Stoll-Kleemann S & Welp M (eds.) Stakeholder Involvement in Environmental Management, Policy Making and Research: Theory and Practice. Cambridge: Springer Verlag: 213-240

Welp M, de la Vega-Leinert AC, Stoll-Kleemann S & Jaeger C 2006 Theoretical approaches for science-based stakeholder dialogues. Gl Env Change 16(2):115-234, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.12.002

Zaehle S, Sitch S, Prentice IC, Liski J, Cramer W, Erhard M, Hickler T, Smith B 2006 The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances. Ecol Appl 16(4):1555-1574, doi: 10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[1555:TIOADI]2.0.CO;2


Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W & Erhard M 2005 Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Gl Ch Biol 11:1504-1513, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001000.x

Araújo MB, Thuiller W, Williams PH & Reginster I 2005 Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning. Gl Ecol & Biogeogr 14:17-30, doi: 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2004.00128.x

Bakker M, Govers G, Ewert F & Rounsevell MDA 2005 Variability in regional wheat yields as a function of climate, soil and socio-economic variables: assessing the risk of confounding. Agric Ecosyst & Environm 110:195-209, doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.04.016

Bugmann H, Zierl B & Schumacher S 2005 Projecting the impacts of climate change on mountain forests and landscapes. In: Huber U, Bugmann H & Reasoner M (eds) Global Change and Mountain Regions: An overview of current knowledge. Advances in Global Change Research, Springer-Verlag, pp 433-444

Ewert F, Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I, Metzger MJ & Leemans 2005 Future scenarios of European agricultural land use I. Estimating changes in crop productivity. Agric Ecos & Environm 107:101-116, doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.003

Fang C, Smith P, Moncrieff JB & Smith JU 2005 Similar response of labile and resistant soil organic matter pools to changes in temperature. Nature 433:57-59, doi: 10.1038/nature03138

Flynn HC, Smith J, Smith KA, Wright J, Smith P & Massheder J 2005 Climate- and crop-responsive emission factors significantly alter estimates of current and future nitrous oxide emissions from fertiliser use. Gl Ch Biol 11:1522–1536, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00998.x

Guisan A & Thuiller W 2005 Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8:993-1009, doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x

Huber U, Bugmann H & Reasoner M (eds) 2005 Global Change and Mountain Regions: An overview of current knowledge. Advances in Global Change Research, Springer-Verlag, 650 pp

Metzger MJ 2005 European vulnerability to global change. A spatially explicit and quantitative assessment. Wageningen University dissertation no. 3849

Metzger MJ, Bunce RGH, Jongman RHG, Mücher CA & Watkins JW 2005 A climatic stratification of the environment of Europe. Gl Ecol Biogeogr 14:549-563, doi: 10.1111/j.1466-822x.2005.00190.x

Metzger MJ, Leemans R & Schröter D 2005 A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change. Int J Appl Earth Obs & Geoinf 7:253-267, doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2005.06.011

Midgley GF & Thuiller W 2005 Global Environmental change and the uncertain fate of biodiversity. New Phytol 167:638-641

Mitchell TD & Jones PD 2005 An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693-712, doi: 10.1002/joc.1181

Morales P, Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Smith P, Smith B, Bugmann H, Zierl B, Friedlingstein P, Viovy N, Sabaté S, Sánchez A, Pla E, Gracia CA, Sitch S, Arneth A & Ogee J 2005 Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes. Gl Ch Biol 11:2211–2233, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001036.x

Patt T, Klein RJT & de la Vega-Leinert AC 2005 Taking the uncertainty in climate change vulnerability assessment seriously. C.R. Geoscience 337:411-424

Rounsevell MDA, Ewert F, Reginster I, Leemans R & Carter TR 2005 Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agric Ecosyst & Environm 107:117-135, doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.002

Schmid S 2005 Carbon budget of Swiss forests: Evaluation and application of process models for assessing the future impact of management and environmental change. Ph.D. Thesis No. 16038. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich, 145 pp

Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R, Prentice IC, Araújo MB, Arnell NW, Bondeau A, Bugmann H, Carter TR, Garcia CA, de la Vega-Leinert AC, Erhard M, Ewert F, Glendining M, House JI, Kankaanpää S, Klein RJT, Lavorel S, Lindner M, Metzger MJ, Meyer J, Mitchell TD, Reginster I, Rounsevell M, Sabaté S, Sitch S, Smith B, Smith J, Smith P, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Thuiller W, Tuck G, Zaehle S, Zierl B 2005 Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe. Science 310(25.11.2005):1333-1337, doi: 10.1126/science.1115233

Smith JU, Smith P, Wattenbach M, Zaehle S, Hiederer R, Jones RJA, Montanarella L, Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I & Ewert F 2005 Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990-2080. Gl Ch Biol 11:2141–2152, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01075.x

Thürig E 2005 Carbon budget of Swiss forests: evaluation and application of empirical models for assessing future management impacts. Ph.D. Thesis No. 15872, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich, 125 pp

Thuiller W, Lavorel S & Araújo MB 2005 Niche properties and geographic extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Gl Ecol & Biogeogr 14:347-357, doi: 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00162.x

Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB, Sykes MT & Prentice IC 2005 Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 102:8245-8250, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0409902102

Zierl B & Bugmann H 2005 Global change impacts on hydrological processes in Alpine catchments. Wat Res Research 41(W02028):1-13, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003447


Araújo MB 2004 Matching species with reserves: uncertainties from using data at different resolutions. Biol Cons 118:533-538

Araújo MB, Densham PJ & Williams PH 2004 Representing species in reserves from patterns of assemblage diversity. J Biogeogr 31:1037-1050

Araújo MB, Cabeza M, Thuiller W, Hannah L & Williams PH 2004 Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Gl Ch Biol 10:1618-1626

Arnell NW 2004 Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Gl Env Change 14:31-52

Arnell NW, Livermore MJL, Kovats S, Levy PE, Nicholls R, Parry ML & Gaffin SR 2004 Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impact assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Gl Env Change 14:3-20

Badeck F-W, Lasch P, Hauf Y, Rock J, Suckow F & Thonicke K 2004 Steigendes klimatisches Waldbrandrisiko. AFZ/Der Wald 2/2004:90-93

Bakker M, Govers G, Rounsevell MDA 2004 The crop productivity-erosion relationship: an analysis based on experimental work. Catena 57:55-76

Brotons L, Thuiller W, Araújo MB & Hirzel AH 2004 Presence-absence versus presence-only habitat suitability models: the role of species ecology and prevalence. Ecography 27:437-448

Cabeza M, Araújo MB, Wilson RJ, Thomas CD, Cowley MJR & Moilanen A 2004 Combining probabilities of occurrence with spatial reserve design. J Appl Ecol 41:252-262

Ladley R, Jepson P, Araújo MB & Whittaker RJ 2004 Dangers of crying wolf over risk of extinctions. Nature 428:799

Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M & New MG 2004 A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). Tyndall Centre Working Paper No.55, Tyndall Centre, Norwich, UK, 30pp

Schröter D, Brussaard L, De Deyn G, Poveda K, Brown VK, Berg MP, Wardle DA, Moore J & Wall DH 2004Trophic interactions in a changing world: modelling aboveground-belowground interactions. Basic & Appl Ecol 5(6):515-528

Schumacher S 2004 The role of large-scale disturbances and climate for the dynamics of forested landscapes in the European Alps. Ph.D. Thesis ETH No. 15573, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich, 141 pp

Schumacher S, Bugmann H & Mladenoff DJ 2004 Improving the formulation of tree growth and succession in a spatially explicit landscape model. Ecol Model 180:175-194, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.12.055

Segurado P & Araújo MB 2004 An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. J Biogeogr 31:1555-1568

Taylor AR, Schröter D, Pflug A & Wolters V 2004 Responses of different decomposer communities to the manipulation of moisture availability: potential effects of changing precipitation patterns. Gl Ch Biol 10:1–12, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00801.x

Thuiller W 2004 Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Gl Ch Biol 10:2020-2027, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00859.x

Thuiller W, Brotons L, Araújo MB & Lavorel S 2004 Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography 27:165-172

Thuiller W, Araújo MB & Lavorel S 2004 Do we need land-cover data to model species distributions in Europe? J Biogeogr 31:353-361

Thuiller W, Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Whittaker RJ, Brotons L & Lavorel S 2004 Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature 430:34-35


Araújo MB 2003 The coincidence of people and biodiversity in Europe. Gl Ecol & Biogeogr 12:5-12

Araújo MB, Densham PJ & Humphries CJ 2003 Predicting species diversity with environmental diversity: the quest for evidence. Ecogr 26:380-384

Bugmann H 2003 Predicting the ecosystem effects of climate change. In: Canham CD, Lauenroth WK & Cole JS (eds) Models in Ecosystem Science. Princeton University Press, pp 385-409

Liski J, Nissinen A, Erhard M & Taskinen O 2003 Climatic effects on litter decomposition from arctic tundra to tropical rainforest. Gl Ch Biol 9(4):575-584

Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Levis S, Lucht W, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Venevsky S 2003 Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Gl Ch Biol 9:161-185, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x

Thuiller W, Vaydera J, Pino J, Sabaté S, Lavorel S & Gracia C 2003 Large-scale environmental correlates of forest tree distributions in Catalonia (NE Spain). Gl Ecol & Biogeogr 12:313-325

Thuiller W 2003 BIOMOD: Optimising predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Gl Ch Biol 9:1353-1362

Thuiller W, Araújo MB & Lavorel S 2003 Generalized Models versus Classification Tree Analysis: a comparative study for predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales. J Veg Sci 14:669-680

Thuiller W, Vaydera J, Pino J, Sabaté S, Lavorel S, & Gracia C 2003 Large-scale environmental correlates of forest tree distributions in Catalonia (NE Spain). Gl Ecol & Biogeogr 12:313-325


Bakkenes M, Alkemade JRM, Ihle F, Leemans R, & Latour JB 2002 Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Gl Ch Biol 8:390-407

Venevsky S, Thonicke K, Sitch S, Cramer W 2002 Simulating fire regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study. Gl Ch Biol 8:984-998, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00528.x

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research