Climate Explorer

Annual Global Means 1981-2020 (ERA5 Reanalysis Data)

Near Surface Temperature	Column Water Vapor	NH Zonal Windspeed
+1°C/30yr	Rainfall Intensity	Rainfall Persistency

https://climexp.knmi.nl/

Climate Explorer

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Anomalies	Eastern Mediterranean Sea
Source for Moisture Accumulation	Climatology vs Present Condition 2020

unusually high SST at the end of the year

Relocation of Cyclones (Circulation Patterns)

Synoptical Evolution from 2022-02-21

Retrospective Analysis

Critical Circulation Patterns 1981-2021

Classification	Criticality
Recurring Shapes of the Circulation	Candidates for Heavy Rainfall

Retrospective Analysis

Composit Patterns of WT03 in Nov-Dec (wet over Near-East)

Temperature	Precipitation
Warm Anomalies over Russia	Dry Conditions over Central Europe

Retrospective Analysis

Assessing the current Weather Conditions

Causal Network

Training Rules: Heavy Rainfall Events in Jordan

• SSTA: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea
• CCP: Critical Circulation Patterns
• HR: Heavy Rainfall in Jordan

• High Probability for HR: SSTA & CCP

From Global to Regional Climate Projections

CMIP6: Maximum 1-Day Precipitation (RX1day)

evaluation of climate projections in terms of dynamical drivers for heavy rainfall