- Provide high resolution regional climate data
- Spatial and temporal downscaling
- Bias adjustment of climate data
- Weather generator
- Uncertainty Analysis
Provide high resolution regional climate data
Regional climate data - Europe
- Europe wide gridded and station observations
- CORDEX-EUR11 ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe
- Horizontal resolution: ~12.5km
- Temporal resolution: daily (gridded observations, projections) to 1 hour (station observations, projections)
- Time frame: 1971-2100
- Variables: precipitation, temperature, sea level pressure, global radiation and wind speed
Precipitation RCP85 (2070-2099 vs. 1971-2000, JJA)
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 v1 CCCma-CanESM2 r1i1p1
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 v1 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 r1i1p1
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r12i1p1
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 v1 MIROC-MIROC5 r1i1p1
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 v1 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES r1i1p1
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 v1 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR r1i1p1
DMI-HIRHAM5 v1 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 r1i1p1
DMI-HIRHAM5 v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r12i1p1
DMI-HIRHAM5 v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r1i1p1
DMI-HIRHAM5 v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r3i1p1
DMI-HIRHAM5 v1 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES r1i1p1
DMI-HIRHAM5 v2 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 r1i1p1
DMI-HIRHAM5 v2 NCC-NorESM1-M r1i1p1
GERICS-REMO2015 v1 CCCma-CanESM2 r1i1p1
GERICS-REMO2015 v1 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 r1i1p1
GERICS-REMO2015 v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r12i1p1
GERICS-REMO2015 v1 MIROC-MIROC5 r1i1p1
GERICS-REMO2015 v1 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES r1i1p1
GERICS-REMO2015 v1 NCC-NorESM1-M r1i1p1
IPSL-INERIS-WRF331F v1 IPSL-IPSL-CM5A-MR r1i1p1
KNMI-RACMO22E v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r12i1p1
KNMI-RACMO22E v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r1i1p1
KNMI-RACMO22E v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r3i1p1
KNMI-RACMO22E v2 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 r1i1p1
KNMI-RACMO22E v2 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES r1i1p1
MPI-CSC-REMO2009 v1 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR r1i1p1
MPI-CSC-REMO2009 v1 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR r2i1p1
SMHI-RCA4 v1a MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR r1i1p1
SMHI-RCA4 v1 CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 r1i1p1
SMHI-RCA4 v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r12i1p1
SMHI-RCA4 v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r3i1p1
SMHI-RCA4 v1 IPSL-IPSL-CM5A-MR r1i1p1
SMHI-RCA4 v1 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES r1i1p1
SMHI-RCA4 v1 NCC-NorESM1-M r1i1p1
UHOH-WRF361H v1 ICHEC-EC-EARTH r1i1p1
UHOH-WRF361H v1 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES r1i1p1
UHOH-WRF361H v1 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR r1i1p1
Spatial and temporal downscaling
Coarse spatial resolution of climate data
global: 100 to 250km
regional: 10 to 50km
Coarse temporal resolution
global: 3hr to 1d
regional: 1hr to 1d
Dynamical regional downscaling
Physically consistent simulation of 3D atmosphere
PIK capability:
Horizontal resolution: ≈5km
Temporal resolution: ≈ 10min values
Computational demanding
o(1d) to simulate 1 year
COSMO CLM model
ICON-CLM model
Statistical regional downscaling
- Statistically consistent simulation of 2D atmospheric fields
- Spatial and temporal resolution depend on available observations
- various Methods available
Temporal downscaling
- Dynamical downscaling using RCMs
- Statistical downscaling using ML
Bias Adjustment of climate data
Example of Model Bias
JJA Temperatures, Bangladesh
Bias Adjustment
- Assume the model simulation to be a result of a random process with wrong statistics
- Bias adjustment should adjust the statistics towards a reference
- In an idealized world we would like to adjust the bias towards reality
- In an idealized world we would like to adjust the bias in every statistic
Weather Generator
Temporal consistency
Spatial correlation
Variable dependency
- Generates 'statistical' consistent evolution of weather paterns
- Use cases:
- Empirical statistical downscaling
- Parametric Bootstrapping
Parametric Bootstrapping
- Artificially increase sample size based on statistical relationship in data
- Typically:
50 years → 1000 years
- Robust estimate and extrapolation of rare events
Uncertainty Analysis
Temperature rcp85
Domain: Alps
2070-2099 vs. 1971-2000
CORDEX-EUR11 projection
Generalized extreme value distribution
Annual maximum precipitation
2071-2100 vs. 1981-2010
Provide high resolution regional climate data Spatial and temporal downscaling Bias adjustment of climate data Weather generator Uncertainty Analysis