Description

We analyze cascading climate change impacts on the European Union (EU) that originate from outside the region, identifying critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis (inverse PageRank), we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade, and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries.