Description

Emission reductions required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement have been extensively analyzed using integrated assessment modeling scenarios. However, the contribution of urban areas in aggregate, globally, by region and by city type, remains underexplored. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework to downscale global emissions pathways to urban areas, differentiated by region and city type. Ambitious climate change mitigation could deliver 21 GtCO₂e of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in urban areas by 2050 relative to a continuation of current policies and trends, primarily by transitioning away from fossil fuels in electricity and heat supply, deep decarbonization of industry, and mitigation in the transport and buildings sectors. Mitigation potential is concentrated in established and rapidly growing cities, reflecting their high current per-capita emission levels. Asian regions with high urbanization levels dominate global urban emissions and reduction potentials. The findings underscore the central role of cities in achieving global climate targets and highlight the importance of differentiated mitigation strategies across regions and city types.