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``Emission game'': some applications of the theory of games to the problem of COtex2html_wrap_inline817-emission

Yu. M. Svirezhev, W. von Bloh, and H.-J. Schellnhuber
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
P.O. Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

Environmental Modelling and Assessment 4, 234-242 (1999)


If there are no doubts that we must reduce the total emission of carbon dioxide then the problem of how much different countries should be allowed to contribute to this amount remains a serious one. We suggest this problem to be considered as a non-antagonistic game (in Germeier's sense). A game of this kind is called an ``emission'' game. Suppose that there are n independent actors (countries or regions), each of them releasing a certain amount of COtex2html_wrap_inline817 per year (in carbon units)into the atmosphere, and that the emission would be reduced by each actor. Each actor has his own aim: to minimise the loss in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused by the reduction of emissions. On the other hand, taking into account that it is impossible to estimate more or less precisely the impact of the climate change on GDP for each country today, a common strategy will be to reduce the climate change. Since one of the main leading factors in global warming is the greenhouse effect, then the common aim will be to reduce the sum of emissions. This is a typical conflict situation. How to resolve it? We can weigh the ``egoistic'' and ``altruistic'' criteria for each actor introducing so-called ``coefficients of egoism''. This coefficient is very large, if the actor uses a very egoistic strategy, and conversely, if the actor is a ``super-altruist'', then the corresponding coefficient is very small. Using these coefficients we get the general solution of the game in a form of some Pareto's equilibrium. The solution is stable and efficient.

Keywords: Global change, COtex2html_wrap_inline817 emission, game theory, Pareto's equilibrium

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Next: ``Emission'' game: the statement

Werner von Bloh (Data & Computation)
Thu Jul 13 15:46:47 MEST 2000