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Successful earliest forecast of onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Successful earliest forecast of onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon

10/18/2017 – For the second year in a row, a team of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) successfully predicted the onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the central part of India more than a month in advance. The PIK-results have just been confirmed by factual dates of onset and withdrawal of the monsoon determined by the Indian Meteorological Department. While meteorological services currently forecast the monsoon onset only two weeks in advance, the long-term forecast project lead by Elena Surovyatkina predicts the onset date 40 days in advance, and the withdrawal date 70 days in advance and is therewith the earliest prediction method of the monsoon for the central part of India.

Successful earliest forecast of onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon - Read More…

New forecast method predicts 2017 Indian Summer Monsoon onset

New forecast method predicts 2017 Indian Summer Monsoon onset

05/08/2017 - Summer Monsoon in central India will likely begin between 14 and 22 June, according to the new early forecast method developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The novel approach based on an analysis of observational data allows to predict the monsoon onset date more than a month in advance in the central part of India where early forecasting has never been made. Elena Surovyatkina lead this study which showed to be successful last year. The monsoon onset date is of crucial importance for Indian farmers feeding a population of more than one billion. Climate change will likely affect monsoon stability and hence makes accurate forecasting even more important.

New forecast method predicts 2017 Indian Summer Monsoon onset - Read More…

Successful forecast of onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Successful forecast of onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon

11/14/2016 - A team of scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) was able to predict the withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon 70 days in advance and therefore much earlier than previously possible. While their assessment on the expected onset earlier this year already proved correct, the actual weather observations from NOAA now confirm that their unprecedentedly early forecast on the monsoon withdrawal was accurate as well. The heavy summer rains are of crucial relevance for agriculture and accordingly for millions of people on the subcontinent. The improved monsoon predictions are based on a cutting-edge methodology developed at the Potsdam Institute.

Successful forecast of onset and withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon - Read More…

Prediction of Monsoon withdrawal

July 27, 2016: The Indian Summer Monsoon is likely to withdraw from the Eastern Ghats region around 5th October (+/- 5 days).

Prediction of Monsoon withdrawal - Read More…

Successful early forecasting of Indian Monsoon

Successful early forecasting of Indian Monsoon

2016/07/14 - A novel approach of unprecedentedly early forecasting of the Indian Monsoon proved to be successful. The new methodology - developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) - correctly predicted this year’s monsoon onset over central India and met great interest by both Indian academics and stakeholders, including the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The accurate long-range monsoon forecasting is of critical importance for millions of farmers in India. [Please find an UPDATE on the withdrawal below.]

Successful early forecasting of Indian Monsoon - Read More…

Indian monsoon: novel approach allows early forecasting

Indian monsoon: novel approach allows early forecasting

04/20/2016 - The Indian monsoon’s yearly onset and withdrawal can now be forecasted significantly earlier than previously possible. A team of scientists developed a novel prediction method based on a network analysis of regional weather data, and will propose this approach to the Indian Meteorological Department. The heavy summer rains are of vital importance for millions of farmers feeding the subcontinent’s population. Future climate change will likely affect monsoon stability and hence makes accurate forecasting even more relevant.

Indian monsoon: novel approach allows early forecasting - Read More…

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