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Summary Report No. 45

Sensitivity Analysis of a Forest Gap Model Concerning Current and Future Climate Variability

P. Lasch, F. Suckow, G. Bürger, M. Lindner (July 1998)

The ability of a forest gap model to simulate the effects of climate variability and extreme events depends on the temporal resolution of the weather data that are used and the internal processing of these data for growth, regeneration and mortality. The climatological driving forces of most current gap models are based on monthly means of weather data and their standard deviations, and long-term monthly means are used for calculating yearly aggregated response functions for ecological processes.

In this study, the results of sensitivity analyses using the forest gap model FORSKA_P and involving climate data of different resolutions, from long-term monthly means to daily time series, including extreme events, are presented for the current climate and for a climate change scenario. The model was applied at two sites with differing soil conditions in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The sensitivity of the model concerning climate variations and different climate input resolutions is analysed and evaluated. The climate variability used for the model investigations affected the behaviour of the model substantially.

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