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Summary Report No. 16

Entwicklung eines Instruments zur Unterstützung der klimapolitischen Entscheidungsfindung

M. Leimbach (May 1996)

The aim of this Report is to present a model which allows uncertainties inherent in global warming decision-making to be dealt with. The model is based on a bounded risk approach. It is conceptually integrated into an interactive system which will be developed to determine optimal greenhouse gas reduction strategies.

In the first part the Fuzzy model is described and problems of applying it to computations are discussed. This includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses.

In the second part the model is extended by introducing the construct of climate protection expenditures. This allows some economic feedbacks interfering with reduction strategies, to be considered. Several model variants are compared regarding their implications for the economic and welfare development. Most significant differences occur in the trajectories of climate protection expenditures.

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