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Land use modelling

Traktor.jpgLand use modelling activities are jointly undertaken by RD2 flagship “MusiX and RD3 flagship Landuse management

Responsible researchers:
Hermann Lotze-Campen
(RD2), Christoph Müller (RD2), Alexander Popp (RD3)

All human activities are embedded and constrained by ecosystem processes and functions. However, in the present time the extent of human use of the biosphere alters these processes and functions on a global scale. Human society appropriates about one quarter of total net primary production of the terrestrial biosphere. Production of food, energy and materials, and the related use of land and water account for crucial components and interactions in the Earth System.

Our research focus is on the competition for land and water under future scenarios of rising food, energy and material demand, climate change and ambitious mitigation policies. World population will grow to about 9 billion people by the year 2050. As economic wealth increases, people consume more food, and the dietary share of animal products increases. Demand for energy, fibre, forest products, and other biomass-based materials will also strongly increase, especially in currently poor regions which are still in an early stage of economic development.

Moreover, there is an increasing area demand for settlements and infrastructure, nature conservation and recreation. With limited availability of land at heterogeneous qualities, it is unclear, how this allocation and management puzzle can be solved. Tools The global land and water use model MAgPIE in connection with the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL provides a consistent link between economic development, food and energy demand in different world regions with spatially explicit patterns of production, land use change and water constraints. The macroeconomic and climate policy feedbacks are being provided by the REMIND model in RD3. As an economic optimisation model, MAgPIE is being used to derive economic values (rents) of land and water resources used in production.

Publications


Visualization and determination of demand scenarios



Master Thesis and internships:

You want to write your master thesis in the landuse group of PIK? Or you want to stay for a longer internship? Please have a look at our potential topic list and contact us!


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