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Photo Farmers at work in Madhya Pradesh during India’s monsoon season


Authors marked in bold are EPICC Scientists.


  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Havlin S. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2020). Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood. [Submitted] arXiv:1910.14642
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Liu, Y., Ali Saberi, A., Kurths, J., and Nagler, J. (2020). Universal Gap Scaling in Percolation, Nature Physics, 1-7. DOI: 10.1038/s41567-019-0783-2
  • Raghunathan, M., George, N., Unni, V., Midhun, P., Reeja, K. and Sujith, R. (2020). Multifractal analysis of flame dynamics during transition to thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent combustor. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 888. DOI: 10.1017/jfm.2020.19
  • Meng, J., Fan, J., Ludescher, J., Agarwal, A., Chen, X., Bunde, A., Kurths, J. and Schellnhuber, H. (2019). Complexity-based approach for El Niño magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(1), pp.177-183. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1917007117
  • Manoj, K., Pawar, S., Dange, S., Mondal, S., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Synchronization route to weak chimera in four candle-flame oscillators. Physical Review E, 100(6). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.100.062204
  • Bhardwaj, S., Irfan, M. and Muriki, S. (2019) An Assessment of Extreme Climate Profile over Kolkata. TROPMET 2019. Poster. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22741.37604
  • George, N. B., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Two Branches of Indian Summer Monsoon under Climate Change: Dynamics of Outgoing Longwave Radiation. [online] American Geophysical Union, AGU 100, 551213. Abstract. Available at:
  • Surovyatkina, E. (2019). Advance in Predicting Monsoon: How to go beyond weather forecast limit? [online] Geophysical Research Abstracts. A21T-2780. AGU General Assembly. Abstract. Available at:
  • Surovyatkina, E. (2019). Advance in Forecasting Indian Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal: Evidence from Retrospective to Prospective Evaluation. [online] Geophysical Research Abstracts. Volume 21, EGU2019-11483-1. EGU General Assembly. Abstract. Available at:
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Chen, X., Ashkenazy, Y., and Havlin, S. (2019). Significant Impact of Rossby Waves on Air Pollution Detected by Network Analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 12,476–12,485. DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084649
  • Bhatia, A., Muriki, S. and Bhardwaj, S. (2019). Potential advantages of using a dynamically downscaled higher resolution regional scale model PRECIS over India. The National Space Science Symposium (NSSS) 2019. Poster. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20933.70886
  • Fan, J., Zhou, D., Shekhtman, L., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Marzocchi, W., Ashkenazy, Y. and Havlin, S. (2019). Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Physical Review E, 99(4). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.042210
  • Unni, V., Gopalakrishnan, E., Syamkumar, K., Sujith, R., Surovyatkina, E. and Kurths, J. (2019). Interplay between random fluctuations and rate dependent phenomena at slow passage to limit-cycle oscillations in a bistable thermoacoustic system. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 29(3), p.031102. DOI: 10.1063/1.5088943 
  • Fan, J., Meng, J. and Saberi, A. (2019). Percolation framework of the Earth's topography. Physical Review E, 99(2). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.99.022304
  • Ludescher, J., Yuan, N. and Bunde, A. (2018). Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point. Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), pp.237-244. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4579-3
  • Fan, J., Meng, J., Ashkenazy, Y., Havlin, S. and Schellnhuber, H. (2018). Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(52), pp.E12128-E12134. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1811068115


Hydrology & Water Resources

  • Zipper, S., Jaramillo, F., Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Cornell, S., Gleeson, T., Porkka, M., Häyhä, T., Crépin, A., Fetzer, I., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Matthews, N., Ricaurte‐Villota, C., Kummu, M., Wada, Y. and Gordon, L. (2020). Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales. Earth's Future, 8(2). DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001377
  • Aybar, C., Fernández, C., Huerta, A., Lavado, W., Vega, F., and Felipe-Obando, O. (2019). Construction of a high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset for Peru from 1981 to the present day. Hydrological Sciences Journal, pp.1-16. DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1649411



  • Shukla, R., Agarwal, A., Gornott, C., Sachdeva, K. and Joshi, P. (2019). Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya. Scientific Reports, 9(1). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-56931-9
  • Brüssow, K., Gornott, C., Faße, A. and Grote, U. (2019). The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. Climatic Change, 157(3-4), pp.545-563. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02581-9
  • Graef, F., Mutabazi, K., Sieber, S., Asch, F., Makoko, B., Bonatti, M., Brüntrup, M., Gornott, C., Herrmann, L., Herrmann, R., Kaburire, L., Kahimba, F., Kimaro, A., Kuntosch, A., König, H., Lagwen, P., Lana, M., Lambert, C., Levy, C., Löhr, K., Maeda, C., Mbwana, H., Mchau, D., Mnimbo, M., Munder, S., Mwinuka, L., Ngwenya, P., Nickson, E., Nkonya, E., Saidia, P., Schäfer, M., Schindler, J., Silayo, V., Uckert, G., Wambura, J. and William, L. (2018). Multi-Disciplinary North-South Collaboration in Participatory Action Research on Food Value Chains: a German-Tanzanian Case Study on Perceptions, Experiences and Challenges. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 32(4), pp.359-378. DOI: 10.1007/s11213-018-9458-7
  •  Lana, M., Vasconcelos, A., Gornott, C., Schaffert, A., Bonatti, M., Volk, J., Graef, F., Kersebaum, K. and Sieber, S. (2017). Is dry soil planting an adaptation strategy for maize cultivation in semi-arid Tanzania?. Food Security, 10(4), pp.897-910. DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0742-7   



  • Bergmann, J. (2019). Double Exposure: The Role of Gender in Climate Migration. [online] In Journal of the International Alliance of Women 14 (1), pp. 13–15. Available at:
  • Kelman, I., Orlowska, J., Upadhyay, H., Stojanov, R., Webersik, C., Simonelli, A., Procházka, D. and Němec, D. (2019). Does climate change influence people’s migration decisions in Maldives?. Climatic Change, 153(1-2), pp.285-299. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02376-y
  • Vinke, K. (2019). Unsettling Settlements - Cities, Migrants, Climate Change. Rural-Urban Climate Migration as Effective Adaptation?. LIT Verlag, 342 pages. ISBN 978-3-643-91130-8.


Cross-Sectoral Capacity Building and International Mainstreaming

  • Chemura A., Schauberger B., Gornott C., 2020. Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana. PLoS ONE,15(6): e0229881. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229881
  • Chemura, A., Rwasoka, D., Mutanga, O., Dube, T. and Mushore, T., 2020. The impact of land-use/land cover changes on water balance of the heterogeneous Buzi sub-catchment, Zimbabwe. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 18, p.100292. DOI: 10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100292
  • Zhang, Y., Fan, J., Marzocchi, W., Shapira, A., Hofstetter, R., Havlin, S. and Ashkenazy, Y., 2020. Scaling laws in earthquake memory for interevent times and distances. Physical Review Research, 2(1). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.2.013264
  • Churkina, G., Organschi, A., Reyer, C., Ruff, A., Vinke, K., Liu, Z., Reck, B., Graedel, T. and Schellnhuber, H. (2020). Buildings as a global carbon sink. Nature Sustainability. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0462-4
  • Lade, S., Steffen, W., de Vries, W., Carpenter, S., Donges, J., Gerten, D., Hoff, H., Newbold, T., Richardson, K. and Rockström, J. (2019). Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions. Nature Sustainability, 3(2), pp.119-128. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0454-4
  • Hoff, H., Alrahaife, S., El Hajj, R., Lohr, K., Mengoub, F., Farajalla, N., Fritzsche, K., Jobbins, G., Özerol, G., Schultz, R. and Ulrich, A. (2019). A Nexus Approach for the MENA Region—From Concept to Knowledge to Action. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7. DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00048
  • Schmidt-Traub, G., Hoff, H. and Bernlöhr, M. (2019). SDSN Policy Brief: International spillovers and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Measuring how a country’s progress towards the SDGs is affected by actions in other countries. [online] Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Available at:
  • Bleischwitz, R., Spataru, C., VanDeveer, S., Obersteiner, M., van der Voet, E., Johnson, C., Andrews-Speed, P., Boersma, T., Hoff, H. and van Vuuren, D. (2018). Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Sustainability, 1(12), pp.737-743. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0173-2
  • Liu, J., Hull, V., Godfray, H., Tilman, D., Gleick, P., Hoff, H., Pahl-Wostl, C., Xu, Z., Chung, M., Sun, J. and Li, S. (2018). Nexus approaches to global sustainable development. Nature Sustainability, 1(9), pp.466-476. DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0135-8

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