What emissions reductions are required to stay well below 2°C or to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C?

How much will greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced to avoid a particular climate impact?

Will post-2015 agreements ensure a high probability of e.g. saving coral reefs?

PRIMAP aims to synthesize earth system science and multi-model impact projections to address these crucial research questions for science and society alike.

Project leader: Katja Frieler

Team members: Matthias Büchner, Tobias Geiger, Robert Gieseke, Annika Günther, Johannes Gütschow, Stefan Lange, Louise Jeffery, Felix John, Christian Otto, Christopher Reyer, Albano Rikani, Jacob Schewe, Ugur Ural, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Jan Volkholz, Fang Zhao

PRIMAP traces the entire modelling chain from Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to impacts on the natural and built environment, which is visualised here.

1. Emissions module

Assesses global GHG emission pathways under different mitigation assumption and equity proposals.

See relevant publications.

2. Climate module

The reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC produces highly efficient probabilistic global mean temperature projections for arbitrary emission scenarios (see also and Pymagicc).

See relevant publications.

3. Impact emulator

EXPACT provides probabilistic projections of climate impacts, such as regional sea level rise and coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change.  This prototype impact emulator accounts for simultaneous occurrence of impacts from extreme events, based on the ISI-MIP database, and will be applied for comprehensive climate risk assessments.

See relevant publications.

Selected PRIMAP publications

The Nature 2°C paper on "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C"

See the latest news from PRIMAP.

The Paris-Reality-Check website offers an user-friendly portal to explore emissions data and scenarios, equity assessments and climate impacts of different emissions scenarios.

Third party funded projects contributing to PRIMAP:

  • BMUB-CAT: Climate Action Tracker, funded by BMUB, IKI, 01.10.2016-30.09.2018, contact: Louise Jeffery
  • CRESCENDO: Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach, funded by EU H2020, 01.11.2015-30.10.2020, contact: Katja Frieler
  • DAMOCLES: UnDerstanding And Modeling cOmpound CLimate and weather EventS, funded by EU H2020, conact: Stefan Lange
  • ENGAGE: Economic Growth Impacts of Climate Change, funded by leibnitz-Gemeinschaft, 01.03.2016-28.02.2020, contact: Katja Frieler / Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • FORMASAM: FORest MAnagement Scenarios for Adaptation and Mitigation, funded by European Forest Institute, 01.04.2018-31.03.2020, contact: Christopher Reyer
  • IKI-Impact: Unterstützung von SIDS und LDC zur wissenschaftsbasierten Anpassungs- und Minderungsplanung, Zugang zu internationaler Klimafinanzierung und zur Umsetzung und weiteren Ausgestaltung des Paris Abkommens, funded by BMU, 01.10.2016-30.09.2019, contact: Louise Jeffery / Christoph Müller
  • IMPREX: IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes, funded by EU H2020, 01.10.2015-30.09.2019, contact: Katja Frieler / Anders Levermann
  • ISIMIP 2: Climate Impact Assessment after Paris - Klimafolgenabschätzung nach Paris, funded by BMBF, 01.11.2016-31.12.2018, contact: Katja Frieler
  • ISIpedia: The open inter-sectoral impacts encyclopedia - Die offene Klimafolgen-Enzyklopödie, funded by BMBF, 18.09.2017-17.09.2020, contact: Katja Frieler
  • LFV Krisen: Modellierung internationaler Migration unter Klimawandel und veränderlichen Einwanderungspolitiken – Entwicklung eines Grundmodells, funded by Leibnitz-Forschungsverbung, 01.11.2017-31.03.2019, contact: Jacob Schewe
  • UBA_Global Stocktake: Der „Global Stocktake“ unter dem Übereinkommen von Paris: Ausgestaltung, Methodik und Prozess, funded by UBA, 01.01.2018-30.11.2019, contact: Louise Jeffery

PRIMAP collaborates on several projects with the non-profit organisation Climate Analytics.


  • CAT: Climate Action Tracker, funded by European Climate Foundation, 01.01.2012-2015
  • EXPACT: Where to stop? Efficient projections of correlated impacts at different levels of global warming, funded by SAW, 'Pakt für Forschung und Innovation', 01.07.2013-30.06.2017, contact: Katja Frieler
  • HELIX: High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes, funded by EU, 01.11.2013-31.10.2017
  • ISIMIP: Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, funded by BMBF, 01.04.2012-31.12.2015
  • Klimakriegsrisiken: Frühwarnsystem für "Klimakriegsrisiken", 01.01.2017-31.12.2017, contact: Jacob Schewe
  • SURVIVE: Science and policy to assist and support SIDS and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs, funded by BMU, 01.09.2011-31.08.2014
  • WB-Columbia: Climate Change Impacts on Population Distribution and Migration, funded by the World Bank, 01.04.2017-30.09.2017, contact: Jacob Schewe

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