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Climate risk analysis for identifying and weighting quantifying adaptation goals to mobilize adaptation investments in Africa
September 2018 until September 2019
638.948 € funded by GIZ - Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH:
Christoph Gornott

While many countries recognize adaptation as an important component of their climate change efforts, little guidance on how to operationalize these adaptation goals exists. As part of their international commitments such as under the Paris Agreement, countries globally have embarked on the process of developing and formulating implementation and investment plans for their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). However, to date especially developing countries often lack comprehensive analyses of their projected climate risks. A thorough assessment and quantification of those risks is important to generate a profound information base for developing effective investment strategies for climate change adaptation. A better understanding of projected climate impacts and of possible benefits of adaptation and risk transfer solutions has the potential to guide, incentivize and accelerate public and private sector investments for a climate resilient transformation. Yet, there is a lack not only of risk and impact assessments, but also of accessible tools to assess costs and benefits of dedicated adaptation options. This can inhibit countries to gain access to local and international climate finance, which is crucial for implementing their adaptation strategies. With this project, PIK works to fill this gap by providing in-depth climate risk analyses combining climate change impact assessments with recommendations for action in three countries in Sub-Sahara Africa: Ghana, Ethiopia and a yet to be determined third country. Following a comprehensive impact assessment focusing on agricultural production, different adaptation strategies are evaluated by means of a cost-benefit analysis and a feasibility assessment for each country. The results are then used to inform and support government and private sector stakeholders in effectively prioritizing and designing their adaptation investments. While the main focus of analysis lies on the agriculture sector, linkages with other key sectors such as water, energy, health and migration are also considered. In addition, country risk profiles are developed for each of the three case study countries, as well as for selected additional countries. For those country profiles, the economics of climate change for the country in general are also assessed, to understand the costs of climate change for the full economy. These case studies are then placed in the overall context of Sub-Sahara Africa, for which climate risks and ways forward towards resilient, climate-proof agriculture sectors and economies are analyzed.

The studies’ main objectives will be (1) a climate risk analysis generating estimates for projected cli-mate and weather risks and (2) assessing costs and benefits of selected adaptation investment options vs. non-action/ BAU in one selected sector incorporating the following two dimensions: - Impact-dimension: define the risk exposure looking at biophysical, social, financial and economic resilience as well as the associated socioeconomic implications across multiple scenarios. - Action-dimension: Development of selected adaptation investment scenarios and options including costing underlying different scenarios (adaptation investment vs. non-action) and building on the impact dimension.

- undertaking conceptual studies and implementing climate risk analysis including sup-port/ coordinating implementation of risk analysis on the ground in the developing country (stakeholder engagement, joint analysis, communication of results, identification and weighting of selected adaptation investment options, explicitly including nature/ ecosys-tem-based options, etc.); - conducting the risk analysis in tight collaboration with local experts, local stakeholders, leading experts in climate impact projections, sociology, economics, land use planning, using state-of-the-art analytics to identify and provide projections of the major risks and weigh selected adaptation options at national scale and for the two countries; - kicking-off the case study projects within a stakeholder engagement/ consultation work-shops in the respective pilot countries; - developing a final report (including a PPT presentation, and a factsheet/ flyer). Compare WP6, to be used at public events).