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4C - FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment


What does the model do?

The model 4C has been developed to describe long-term forest behaviour under changing environmental conditions (Bugmann et al., 1998). It describes processes on tree and stand level basing on findings from eco-physiological experiments, long term observations and physiological modelling on a intermediate level of complexity. It is used to analyse forest productivity (11 European tree species), the carbon, water, and nitrogen budgets of forests including soil, to derive reduced models for application in information systems, to analyse adaption of forestry to climate change by management, and to estimate the bioenergy potential from short rotation coppice. 

Who maintains it?

Dr. Felicitas Suckow, Petra Lasch-Born, Martin Gutsch, Dr. Chris Kollas

What are the next steps in the development of the model architecture?

Implementation of new species according to requirements (e.g. by external us-ers) to enlarge the application regions; implementation of the dynamic interdependency between soil quality and changing of humus stock; improvement of the user interface

In what way is the model different from other models in the community?

The model is a member of a model family in Europe, which are used in different regions (PICUS, GOTTILWA, FORCLIM, FINNFOR, FOREST-BGC).These models are well adapted for their specific climatic region and the appropriate tree species (Mediterranean, Alps, Boreal zone) and cover only a part of the above described functionality of 4C. In contrast, 4C allows simulating forests from the Mediterranean to the Boreal regions because of the large set of parameterised tree species and processes. 4C was successful compared with these models in the framework of different projects.

Key publications

Gutsch, M., Lasch-Born, P., Lüttger, A. B., Suckow, F., Murawski, A., Pilz, T. (2015). Uncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 24(2), 213-223

Lasch-Born, P. Suckow, F., Gutsch, M., Reyer, C., Hauf, Y., Murawski, A., Pilz, T. (2015). Forests under climate change: potential risks and opportunities. Meteorologische Zeitschrift,24(2), 157-171

Reyer, C., Lasch-Born, P., Suckow, F., Gutsch, M., Murawski, A., Pilz, T. (2014): Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide. Ann. For. Sci. 71(2), 211-225.

Borys, A., Lasch, P., Suckow, F., Reyer, C. (2013): Kohlenstoffspeicherung in Buchenbeständen in Abhängigkeit von Waldpflege und Klimawandel. Allg. Forst- u. J.-Ztg. 184(1/2), 26-35.

Gutsch, M., Lasch, P., Suckow, F., Reyer, C. (2011): Management of mixed oak-pine forests under climate scenario uncertainty. Forest Systems 20(3), 453-463.

Fürstenau, C., Badeck, F., Lasch, P., Lexer, M., Lindner, M., Mohr, P., Suckow, F. (2007): Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups. European Journal of Forest Research 126(2), 225-239.

Lasch P, Badeck FW, Suckow F, Lindner M, Mohr P (2005) Model-based analysis of management alternatives at stand and regional level in Brandenburg (Germany). For. Ecol. Manage. 207(1-2): 59-74

Homepage 4C

Detailed model description (pdf)

Model fact sheet 2014 (pdf)

Poster 4C (pdf)



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