Flagship iCROSS: Impacts and adaptation across sectors

Speaker: Peter Hoffmann, Chris Kollas

Team members: Frank Brenner, Tobias Conradt, Peer von Döhren, Christoph Gornott, Pia Gottschalk, Martin Gutsch, Ylva Hauf, Cornelia Hesse, Peter Hoffmann, Thomas Kartschall, Chris Kollas, Petra Lasch-Born, Christoph Menz, Sophia Rottmann, Bernhard Schauberger, Arne Spekat


Summary:

The project iCROSS aims at the assessment of climate impacts and adaptation strategies in focus regions (Germany and other) analysing energy and water security under global change. We consider climate and anthropogenic land use changes as main impact drivers on different sectors like agriculture, forestry, water, electricity production, cities and infrastructure, and human health. One main focus is the evaluation of regional potentials of renewable energies regarding the two degree goal by integrating sectoral contributions and impacts.


Key questions:

  • How will the potential of renewable energies (water, wind, solar and biomass energy) develop under climate change in Germany? Will renewable energies provide a relevant contribution to the 2 degree goal?
    • Model based integration (CLIMREG model chain) of water, wind, solar, biomass and thermal energy potentials under climate change (using STARS and CCLM scenarios)
  • What are the impacts of land use change in interaction with climate change on the landscape material and water fluxes and pools in Germany?
    • Model (SWIM, 4C) and scenario based temporal and spatial differentiated analysis of regional matter fluxes and pools covering whole Germany (in the framework of the BMBF project CCLandStraD)
    • Impact of land use change scenarios (GLUES) and climate scenarios (RCP, STARS)
  • What are the impacts of land use change in interaction with climate change on the landscape material and water fluxes and pools in river basins worldwide?
    • Model (SWIM, GLUES) and scenario based temporal and spatial differentiated analysis for the Sao Francisco River Basin in Brazil (in the framework of the BMBF project INNOVATE)
    • Model (SWIM, GLUES) and scenario based temporal and spatial differentiated analysis for the Tarim River Basin in China (in the framework of the BMBF project SuMaRiO)
  • What are the climate impacts on the population of Berlin and suitable adaptation measures ? (DFG project UCAHS) in cooperation with flagship “InfraDynC: Climate-proof Cities & Infrastructure”
  • Medium term: what are the interactions of anthropogenic land use changes (GLUES scenarios) and regional and local climate (CCLM)?

    Outcomes:

    • 2017 Chapters in Book: "Klimawandel in Deutschland" - Entwicklung, Folgen, Risiken und Perspektiven
    • Webportal KlimafolgenOnlineClimateImpactsOnline, final activities within the CIES project
    • 2014 Special issue of „Meteorologische Zeitung“ with joint contributions together with the Welzer-Team
    • 2013 Contribution to the regional model intercomparison in cooperation with IMPROVE
    • 2013-2014 Publications about the Energy potential of Germany under Climate change
    • Book: Gerstengarbe & Welzer (eds) 2013: „Deutschland 2040: zwei Grad mehr“
    • Conference:„Klimafolgen für Deutschland“ 24. September 2012

    Third party funded projects contributing to iCROSS:

    • CLIMSU: Climate Smart Agriculture, Climate KIC Product and Price Demonstrator Sugarcane, funded by Climate KIC Schweiz, 01.09.2016-30-06-2017, contact: Christoph Gornott
    • CLIP-ID: Infections and immunity in climate change: Modelling the expected developments on the basis of existing data, funded by BMBF, 01.11.2015-30.04.2018, contact: Peter Hoffmann
    • DENDROKLIMA: Jahrringanalysen auf dem Telegrafenberg (Potsdam) -Nutzung dendrocronologischer Daten Deutschlands zur modell-basierten Analyse der Wirkung von Klimaänderungen auf Waldökosysteme, funded by BLE, 01.09.2016-31.08.2018, contact. Chris Kollas
    • EXTRA: Impact of EXTreme events and climate change on Russian Agriculture, economic implications and adaptation, 01.01.2016-30.06.2018, funded by contact: Frank Wechsung
    • GeoCare: Geo informationtechnology for agricultural resource protection and riskmanagement, funded by Uni Kiel, BMEL, 01.12.2016-30.09.2018, contact: Christoph Gornott
    • HYFLY: Effektive Strategien zur Kontrolle und Umgang mit Ausbreitungswegen von Erregern um Luftverkehr, funded by BMBF, 01.09.2016-31.08.2019, contact: Peter Hoffmann
    • InfectControl_PhD: Neue Herausforderungen zur Bekämpfung von Infektionskrankrheiten im 21. Jahrhundert. Neue Anti infektionsstrategien 2020 - Wissenschaft - Wirtschaft - Öffentlichkeit, funded by BMBF, 01.03.2015-30.04.2018, contact: Peter Hoffmann
    • MRe CYE: Secure stable crop yields, funded by Munich Re, 01.03.2017-28.02.2018, contact. Christoph Gornott
    • OptiBarn: Optimized animal-specific barn climatization facing temperature rise and increased climate variability, funded by BMBF, 01.12.2014-30.11.2017
    • PROFOUND: Towards robust PROjections of European FOrests UNDer climate change, funded by EU, FP7 Cost Action, 01.05.2014-30.04.2018, contact: Christopher Reyer
    • REFORCE: Resilience mechanisms for risk adapted forest management under climate change, funded by BMEL, 31.03.2017-30.03.2020, contact: Christopher Reyer
    • REKLIES-De: Regionale Klimaprojektionen Ensemble für Deutschland, funded by BMBF, 01.09.2014-31.08.2017, contact: Peter Hoffmann
    • STADTGRÜN: Stadtgrün wertschätzen: Bewerbung, Management und Kommunikation als Schlüssel für eine klimaresiliente und naturnahe Grünflächenentwicklung, funded by BMBF, 01.11.2016-31.10.2019, contact: Fred Hattermann/ Jan Volkholz
    • Trans-Sec 2: Innovating Strategies to safeguard Food Security using Technology and Knowledge Transfer: A people-centered Approach, funded by BMBF, 01.05.2013-30.06.2018, contact: Fred Hattermann/Christoph Müller
    • WAHYKLAS: Waldhygienische Anpassungsstrategien für das steigende Potential von Schadorganismen in vulnerablen Regionen unter Berücksichtigung von Klimawandel und zunehmenden Restriktionen, funded bei BMELV, 01.01.2014-30.06.2017, contact: Felicitas Suckow

    Finished

    • BTU: Modellentwicklung und Modellkopplung im Rahmen des INKA-BB-Teilprojekts 21: Instrumentarien für die nachhaltige regionale wasserwirtschaftliche Planung und Entwicklung - Beispiel Lausitz, funded by BTU Cottbus, 01.01.2011-30.09.2014, contact: Hagen Koch
    • CarpathCC: Preparatory action on climate in the Carpathian region - Framework contract for in-depth assessments of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures, funded by EU, FP7, 27.12.2011-27.09.2013, contact: Hagen Koch
    • CCFD: Sino-German cooperation project "Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events: Floods and Droughts", funded by DFG, 01.06.2007-31.12.2010, contact: Zbyszek Kundzewicz/Valentina Krysanova
    • CC-LandStraD: Interdependencies between Land use and Climate Change– Strategies for a sustainable land use management in Germany, funded by BMBF, Nachhaltiges Landmanagement Modul A1, 01.11.2010-31.10.2015, contact: Petra Lasch
    • CGSS: SummerSchool: Integrated modelling and assessment for water resources management, funded by Sino-German Center for Research Promotion, Aug-Sept 2011 (Germany) and Sept 2012 (China), contact: Frank Wechsung
    • CIES: Climate Impacts Expert System, funded by EIT Climate KIC, 01.11.2010-31.12.2013, contact: F.-W. Gerstengarbe
    • ECONS: Evolving Complex Networks – Regional resource management under environmental and demographic change, funded by MWFK, WGL Pakt für Innovation und Forschung, 01.01.2010-31.12.2012, contact: Frank Wechsung
    • FGG: Konzept für ein überregionales Wassermengenmanagement in der Flussgebietsgemeinschaft Elbe, funded by Flussgebietsgemeinschaft Elbe, 01.10.2011-30.09.2012, contact: Hagen Koch
    • FUME: Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world, funded by EU FP7, 01.01.2010-31.12.2013, contact: F.-W. Gerstengarbe
    • GLOWA-Elbe: Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet - Ergebnisse und Konsequenzen, funded by BMBF,
    • GUANTING: Sustainable water and agricultural land use in the Guanting watershed under limited water resources, funded by BMBF, 01.06.2009-31.05.2012, contact: Frank Wechsung
    • INKA-BB: Innovationsnetzwerk Klimaanpassung Region Berlin-Brandenburg, funded by BMBF, 01.05.2009-30.04.2014, contact: PC Werner
    • IRTG/Sao Paulo: International Research Training Group: Dynamical Phenomena in Complex Networks: Fundamentals and Applications, Graduate school with Humboldt University Berlin and University of São Paulo, 01.10.2011-31.03.2016, contact: Jan Volkholz
    • Klimacheck: Klimacheck der Maßnahmenplanung in der Elbe zur EU-WRRL mit  der Elbe-Expert Toolbox, funded by BMBF, 01.11.2011-30.10.2014, contact: Frank Wechsung
    • MOTIVE: Models or Adaptive Forest Management, funded by EU FP7, 01.05.2009-30.04.2013, contact: Petra Lasch
    • NaLaMa-nT: Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland unter sich ändernden ökologischen, ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen, funded by BMBF, Nachhaltiges Landmanagement Modul B, 01.09.2010-31.08.2015, contact: P.C. Werner
    • PIKEE: PIK Environmental Education: Entwicklung und Erprobung einer online-basierten Umweltbildung, funded by DBU, 17.06.2013-16.06.2016, contact: Ines Blumenthal
    • UCAHs: Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change - driving forces, mitigation and adaptation, funded by DFG, 01.07.2012-30.06.2015, contact: Susanne Grossman-Clarke
    • Vertrag Krätzig: Vorkehrungen und Maßnahmen aufgrund der Gefahrenquellen Wind und Schnee unter Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels, funded by Krätzig & Partner Ingenieurgesellschaft für Bautechnik mbh, 01.09.2011-01.03.2013, contact: Manfred Stock
    • WET-Haihe: Water Expert Toolbox for the Haihe River Basin, funded by International Bureau of BMBF, 01.08.2011-31.12.2012, contact: Frank Wechsung
    • WORLD BANK: Turn Down the Heat III: Regional Analysis – The Case for Climate Resilience, funded by World Bank, 16.12.2013-01.10.2014, contact: Christopher Reyer

    Publications


    Models

    • STARS - STAtistical Regional climate model represents a new statistical method for  regional climate scenarios. The basis for these scenarios are daily meteorological data measured at the stations in the region of interest and trend in temperature for the future, derived e.g. from a GCM-run.
    • CCLM - COSMO-ClimateLimited-areaModelling is a dynamic regional climate model, applicable for studying nonlinear feedback processes. In a new approach, it is applied to generate very-high resolution ensemble simulations for extremes (droughts and floods) under uncertainty with a spatial resolution of about 2.8 km. Temporal resolution is recently between 1 day and 1 hour
    • SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model investigates climate and land use change impacts at the regional scale, where the impacts are manifested and adaptation measures take place. It combines the relevant ecohydrological processes at the mesoscale such as runoff generation, nutrient and carbon cycling, river discharge, plant growth and crop yield, and erosion.
    • 4C - FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment is a forest dynamics model which allows  to analyse  forest behaviour under climate change. It describes carbon and water balance of forest stands  and includes management and submodels for wood product (WPM) and socio-economic analyses (SEA).
    • IRMA - Integrated Regional Model Approach is a statistical strategy to simulate yield changes of crops by linking them to changes of weather parameters to assess the combined effects of regional climate change and agricultural

      Homepage of previous flagship project CLIMREG: Climate Impact Register for Germany

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