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Flagship iCROSS: Impacts and adaptation across sectors

Speaker: Petra Lasch-Born, Hagen Koch

Team members: Frank Brenner, Christoph Gornott, Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Pia Gottschalk, Martin Gutsch, Ylva Hauf, Peter Hoffmann, Thomas Kartschall, Hagen Koch, Chris Kollas, Neele Larondelle, Petra Lasch-Born, Christoph Menz, Christin Meyer, Michael Roers, Claus Rachimow, Sebastian Schubert, Arne Spekat,  Manfred Stock, Felicitas Suckow, Frank Wechsung


Summary:

The project iCROSS aims at the assessment of climate impacts and adaptation strategies in focus regions (Germany and other) analysing energy and water security under global change. We consider climate and anthropogenic land use changes as main impact drivers on different sectors like agriculture, forestry, water, electricity production, cities and infrastructure, and human health. One main focus is the evaluation of regional potentials of renewable energies regarding the two degree goal by integrating sectoral contributions and impacts.


Key questions:

  • How will the potential of renewable energies (water, wind, solar and biomass energy) develop under climate change in Germany? Will renewable energies provide a relevant contribution to the 2 degree goal?
    • Model based integration (CLIMREG model chain) of water, wind, solar, biomass and thermal energy potentials under climate change (using STARS and CCLM scenarios)
  • What are the impacts of land use change in interaction with climate change on the landscape material and water fluxes and pools in Germany?
    • Model (SWIM, 4C) and scenario based temporal and spatial differentiated analysis of regional matter fluxes and pools covering whole Germany (in the framework of the BMBF project CCLandStraD)
    • Impact of land use change scenarios (GLUES) and climate scenarios (RCP, STARS)
  • What are the impacts of land use change in interaction with climate change on the landscape material and water fluxes and pools in river basins worldwide?
    • Model (SWIM, GLUES) and scenario based temporal and spatial differentiated analysis for the Sao Francisco River Basin in Brazil (in the framework of the BMBF project INNOVATE)
    • Model (SWIM, GLUES) and scenario based temporal and spatial differentiated analysis for the Tarim River Basin in China (in the framework of the BMBF project SuMaRiO)
  • What are the climate impacts on the population of Berlin and suitable adaptation measures ? (DFG project UCAHS) in cooperation with flagship “InfraDynC: Climate-proof Cities & Infrastructure”
  • Medium term: what are the interactions of anthropogenic land use changes (GLUES scenarios) and regional and local climate (CCLM)?

    Outcomes:

    • Conference:„Klimafolgen für Deutschland“ 24. September 2012
    • Book: Gerstengarbe & Welzer (eds) 2013: „Deutschland 2040: zwei Grad mehr“
    • Webportal KlimafolgenOnline/ ClimateImpactsOnline, final activities within the CIES project
    • 2013 Contribution to the regional model intercomparison in cooperation with IMPROVE
    • 2013-2014 Publications about the Energy potential of Germany under Climate change
    • 2014 special issue of „Meteorologische Zeitung“ with joint contributions together with the Welzer-Team

      Third party funded projects contributing to iCROSS:

      • BTU: Modellentwicklung und Modellkopplung im Rahmen des INKA-BB-Teilprojekts 21: Instrumentarien für die nachhaltige regionale wasserwirtschaftliche Planung und Entwicklung - Beispiel Lausitz, funded by BTU Cottbus, 01.01.2011-30.09.2014, contact: Hagen Koch
      • CC-LandStraD: Interdependencies between Land use and Climate Change– Strategies for a sustainable land use management in Germany, funded by BMBF, Nachhaltiges Landmanagement Modul A1, 01.11.2010-31.10.2015, contact: Petra Lasch
      • INNOVATE: Interplay between the multiple use of water reservoirs via inNOVative coupling of substance cycles in Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems, funded by BMBF "Sustainable land management", 01.01.2012-30.12.2016, contact: Hagen Koch
      • IRTG/Sao Paulo: International Research Training Group: Dynamical Phenomena in Complex Networks: Fundamentals and Applications, Graduate school with Humboldt University Berlin and University of São Paulo, 01.10.2011-31.03.2016, contact: Jan Volkholz
      • Klimacheck: Klimacheck der Maßnahmenplanung in der Elbe zur EU-WRRL mit  der Elbe-Expert Toolbox, funded by BMBF, 01.11.2011-30.10.2014, contact: Frank Wechsung
      • NaLaMa-nT: Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland unter sich ändernden ökologischen, ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen, funded by BMBF, Nachhaltiges Landmanagement Modul B, 01.09.2010-31.08.2015, contact: P.C. Werner
      • PIKEE: PIK Environmental Education: Entwicklung und Erprobung einer online-basierten Umweltbildung, funded by DBU, 17.06.2013-16.06.2016, contact: Ines Blumenthal
      • PROFOUND: Towards robust PROjections of European FOrests UNDer climate change, funded by EU, FP7 Cost Action, 01.05.2014-30.04.2018, contact: Christopher Reyer
      • REKLIES-De: Regionale Klimaprojektionen Ensemble für Deutschland, funded by BMBF, 01.09.2014-31.08.2017, contact: Peter Hoffmann
      • UCAHs: Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change - driving forces, mitigation and adaptation, funded by DFG, 01.07.2012-30.06.2015, contact: Susanne Grossman-Clarke
      • WAHYKLAS: Waldhygienische Anpassungsstrategien für das steigende Potential von Schadorganismen in vulnerablen Regionen unter Berücksichtigung von Klimawandel und zunehmenden Restriktionen, funded bei BMELV, 01.01.2014-30.06.2017, contact: Felicitas Suckow
      • WORLD BANK: Turn Down the Heat III: Regional Analysis – The Case for Climate Resilience, funded by World Bank, 16.12.2013-01.10.2014, contact: Christopher Reyer

      Finished

      • CarpathCC: Preparatory action on climate in the Carpathian region - Framework contract for in-depth assessments of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures, funded by EU, FP7, 27.12.2011-27.09.2013, contact: Hagen Koch
      • CCFD: Sino-German cooperation project "Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events: Floods and Droughts", funded by DFG, 01.06.2007-31.12.2010, contact: Zbyszek Kundzewicz/Valentina Krysanova
      • CGSS: SummerSchool: Integrated modelling and assessment for water resources management, funded by Sino-German Center for Research Promotion, Aug-Sept 2011 (Germany) and Sept 2012 (China), contact: Frank Wechsung
      • CIES: Climate Impacts Expert System, funded by EIT Climate KIC, 01.11.2010-31.12.2013, contact: F.-W. Gerstengarbe
      • ECONS: Evolving Complex Networks – Regional resource management under environmental and demographic change, funded by MWFK, WGL Pakt für Innovation und Forschung, 01.01.2010-31.12.2012, contact: Frank Wechsung
      • FGG: Konzept für ein überregionales Wassermengenmanagement in der Flussgebietsgemeinschaft Elbe, funded by Flussgebietsgemeinschaft Elbe, 01.10.2011-30.09.2012, contact: Hagen Koch
      • FUME: Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world, funded by EU FP7, 01.01.2010-31.12.2013, contact: F.-W. Gerstengarbe
      • GLOWA-Elbe: Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet - Ergebnisse und Konsequenzen, funded by BMBF,
      • GUANTING: Sustainable water and agricultural land use in the Guanting watershed under limited water resources, funded by BMBF, 01.06.2009-31.05.2012, contact: Frank Wechsung
      • INKA-BB: Innovationsnetzwerk Klimaanpassung Region Berlin-Brandenburg, funded by BMBF, 01.05.2009-30.04.2014, contact: PC Werner
      • MOTIVE: Models or Adaptive Forest Management, funded by EU FP7, 01.05.2009-30.04.2013, contact: Petra Lasch
      • Vertrag Krätzig: Vorkehrungen und Maßnahmen aufgrund der Gefahrenquellen Wind und Schnee unter Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels, funded by Krätzig & Partner Ingenieurgesellschaft für Bautechnik mbh, 01.09.2011-01.03.2013, contact: Manfred Stock
      • WET-Haihe: Water Expert Toolbox for the Haihe River Basin, funded by International Bureau of BMBF, 01.08.2011-31.12.2012, contact: Frank Wechsung

      Publications


      Models

      • STARS - STAtistical Regional climate model represents a new statistical method for  regional climate scenarios. The basis for these scenarios are daily meteorological data measured at the stations in the region of interest and trend in temperature for the future, derived e.g. from a GCM-run.
      • CCLM - COSMO-ClimateLimited-areaModelling is a dynamic regional climate model, applicable for studying nonlinear feedback processes. In a new approach, it is applied to generate very-high resolution ensemble simulations for extremes (droughts and floods) under uncertainty with a spatial resolution of about 2.8 km. Temporal resolution is recently between 1 day and 1 hour
      • SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model investigates climate and land use change impacts at the regional scale, where the impacts are manifested and adaptation measures take place. It combines the relevant ecohydrological processes at the mesoscale such as runoff generation, nutrient and carbon cycling, river discharge, plant growth and crop yield, and erosion.
      • 4C - FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment is a forest dynamics model which allows  to analyse  forest behaviour under climate change. It describes carbon and water balance of forest stands  and includes management and submodels for wood product (WPM) and socio-economic analyses (SEA).
      • IRMA - Integrated Regional Model Approach is a statistical strategy to simulate yield changes of crops by linking them to changes of weather parameters to assess the combined effects of regional climate change and agricultural

        Homepage of previous flagship project CLIMREG: Climate Impact Register for Germany

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