PRIMAP publications

PRIMAP Team members have published on a broad range of climate science issues with a selection provided below. For publications by individual team members, please go to their personal home pages.


K. L. Ricke, J. B. Moreno-Cruz, J. Schewe, A. Levermann and K. Caldeira "Policy thresholds in mitigation", Nature Geoscience, 9, 5–6 [link]


Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming", Climatic Change, 132, 4, 501-515, 2015. [link]

C.-F. Schleussner, T. K. Lissner, E. M. Fischer, J. Wohland, M. Perrette, A. Golly, J. Rogelj, K. Childers, J. Schewe, K. Frieler, M. Mengel, W. Hare, and M. Schaeffer "Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C", Earth System Dynamics Discussions, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-2447-2015. [link]

K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata, "Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results", Earth System Dynamics, 6, 435445, 2015. [link]

Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M.F.P., Ciais, P., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., Döll, P., Falloon, P., Fekete, B., Folberth, C., Friend, A.D., Gellhorn, C., Gosling, S.N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Neumann, K., Oki, T., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A.C., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Stacke, T., Stehfest, E., Tang, Q., Wisser, D., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Schellnhuber, H.J. "A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: Land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties", ESD, 6, 447–460, 2015. [link]

Frieler, K., Clark, P. U., He, F., Buizert, C., Reese, R, Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A. "Consistent Evidence of Increasing Antarctic Accumulation with Warming", Nature Climate Change, 5, 348–352,


Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Eliseev, A. V., Levermann, A. "Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change", ERL, 9, 8, 2014. [link]

Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Nowicki, S., Fastook, J., Frieler, K., Greve, R., Hellmer, H.H., Martin, M.A., Mengel, M., Payne, A.J., Pollard, D., Sato, T., Timmermann, R., Wang, W.L., Bindschadler, R.A. (2014) "Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models", The Cryosphere

Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J.,Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., Levermann, A. (2014). "Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222469111

Friedlingstein, P., M. Meinshausen, V. K. Arora, C. D. Jones, A. Anav, S. K. Liddicoat and R. Knutti (2014). "Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks." Journal of Climate 27(2).

Rogelj, J., M. Meinshausen, J. Sedlácek and R. Knutti (2014). "Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy." Environmental Research Letters 9(3): 031003.

Huber, V., et al. "Climate impact research: beyond patchwork", Earth System Dynamics, 5, 399408, 2014. [link]


Gregory, J., D. Bi, M. Collier, M. Dix, A. Hirst, A. Hu, M. Huber, R. Knutti, S. Marsland and M. Meinshausen (2013). "Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion." Geophysical Research Letters 40(8): 1600-1604.

Khodayari, A., D. J. Wuebbles, S. C. Olsen, J. S. Fuglestvedt, T. Berntsen, M. T. Lund, I. Waitz, P. Wolfe, P. M. Forster and M. Meinshausen (2013). "Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO< sub> 2</sub> on climate." Atmospheric Environment 75: 321-328.

Luderer, G., R. C. Pietzcker, C. Bertram, E. Kriegler, M. Meinshausen and O. Edenhofer (2013). "Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets." Environmental Research Letters 8(3): 034033.

Rogelj, J., D. L. McCollum, A. Reisinger, M. Meinshausen and K. Riahi (2013). "Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation." Nature 493(7430): 79-83.

Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N. , Eisnerk, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C, Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T. , Tang, Q., Wisser, D. (2013) "Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3239-3244. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222474110

Warszawski, L., Friend, A., Ostberg, S., Frieler, K., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S., Beerling, D., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Kahana, R., Ito, A., Keribin, R., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M., Nishina, K., Pavlick, R., Rademacher, T. T., Buechner, M., Piontek, F., Schewe, J., Serdeczny, O., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2013) "A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change", ERL. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018.

Warszawski, L., Frieler, K
., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., Schewe, S. (2013) "The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3228-3232. doi:10.1073/pnas.1312330110

Menon, A., Levermann, A., Schewe, J., Lehmann, J., Frieler, K. (2013) "Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models", Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287- 300.

Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Frieler, K., Müller, C., Gerten, D., Meinshausen, M., and Lucht, W. (2013) "A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming", Geoscientific Model Development.

Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N.W., Clark, D.B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B., Colón-González, F.J., Gosling, S.,N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y, Portmann, F.T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Kabat, P. (2013) "Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3245-3250.  doi:10.1073/pnas.1222460110

Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., & Piontek, F., (2013) "A trend-preserving bias correction -- the ISI-MIP approach", Earth Syst. Dynam. doi:10.5194/esd-4-219-2013 2013.

Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Clark, D., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Colón-González, F.J., Flörke, M., Folberth, C., Franssen, W., Frieler, K., Friend, A.D., Gosling, S.N., Hemming, D., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Mengel, M., Morse, A., Neumann, K., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schewe, J., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Tessler, Z., Tompkins, A. M., Warszawski, L., Wisser, D., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2013) "Multi-sectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3233-3238. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222471110

Perrette, M., Riva, R., Landerer, F. W., Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M. (2013) "A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties", Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11-29.

Eby, M., Weaver, a. J., Alexander, K., Zickfeld, K., Abe-Ouchi, a., Cimatoribus, a. a., Crespin, E., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, N. R., Eliseev, a. V., Feulner, G.,Fichefet, T., Forest, C. E., Goosse, H., Holden, P. B., Joos, F.,Kawamiya, M.,Kicklighter, D., Kienert, H., Matsumoto, K., Mokhov, I. I., Monier, E., Olsen, S. M.,Pedersen, J. O. P., Perrette, M. et al., (2013). Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity. Climate of the Past, 9(3), 1111-1140. doi:10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013

Edwards, N.R., Holden, P., Eliseev, A., Mokhov, I., Feulner, G., Kienert, H., Perrette, M., Schneider von Deimling, T., et al. (2013). "Long-term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison". Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1

Bittermann, K., Rahmstorf, S., Perrette, M., & Vermeer, M. (2013). Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1), 014013. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014013


van Vliet, J., M. van den Berg, M. Schaeffer, D. P. van Vuuren, M. den Elzen, A. F. Hof, A. M. Beltran and M. Meinshausen (2012). "Copenhagen accord pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2 C warming." Climatic Change 113(2): 551-561.

Rogelj, J., M. Meinshausen and R. Knutti (2012). "Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates." Nature Climate Change 2(4): 248-253.

den Elzen, M. G., M. Meinshausen and A. F. Hof (2012). "The impact of surplus units from the first Kyoto period on achieving the reduction pledges of the Cancún Agreements." Climatic change 114(2): 401-408.

Hof, A. F., C. W. Hope, J. Lowe, M. D. Mastrandrea, M. Meinshausen and D. P. van Vuuren (2012). "The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component." Climatic change 113(3-4): 897-917.

Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Martin, M. A., Frieler, K. (2012) "Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall", Nature, 492, 7428, 239-242.

Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2012) "Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs", Nature Climate Change, 3, 165-170.

Schneider von Deimling, T., Meinshausen, M., Levermann, A., Huber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. M., Brovkin V. (2012). "Estimating the permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming." Biogeosciences, 9, 649-665.

Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Braun, N., Hare, W. (2012) "A scaling approach to probabilistic assessment of regional climate change", Journal of Climate, 25, 9, 3117-3144.

Chen,C., J. Gütschow,
M. Schaeffer, M. Vieweg, K. Macey (submitted). "Influence of rules governing surplus emission allowances on developed country emissions." (PDF)


Meinshausen, M., S. C. B. Raper and T. M. L. Wigley (2011). "Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6: Part I – Model Description and Calibration." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11: 1417-1456.

Schewe, J., A. Levermann and M. Meinshausen (2011). "Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 C of global warming: Monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise." Earth System Dynamics 2(1): 25-35.

Meinshausen, M., T. M. L. Wigley and S. C. B. Raper (2011). "Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6: Part 2– Applications." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11: 1457-1471.

van Vuuren, D., J. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, K. Hibbard, G. Hurtt, T. Kram, V. Krey, J.-F. Lamarque, T. Masui, M. Meinshausen, N. Nakicenovic, S. Smith and S. Rose (2011). "The representative concentration pathways: an overview." Climatic Change 109(1): 5-31.

Meinshausen, M., S. J. Smith, K. Calvin, J. S. Daniel, M. Kainuma, J. Lamarque, K. Matsumoto, S. Montzka, S. Raper and K. Riahi (2011). "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300." Climatic Change 109(1-2): 213-241.

Reisinger, A., M. Meinshausen and M. Manning (2011). "Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways." Environmental Research Letters 6(2): 024020.

Rogelj, J., W. Hare, C. Chen and M. Meinshausen (2011). "Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges." Environmental Research Letters 6(2): 024002.

Rogelj, J., W. Hare, J. Lowe, D. P. van Vuuren, K. Riahi, B. Matthews, T. Hanaoka, K. Jiang and M. Meinshausen (2011). "Emission pathways consistent with a 2C global temperature limit." Nature Climate Change 1(8): 413-418.

Nabel,J., J.Rogelj, C.Chen, K.Markmann,
D. Gutzmann, M.Meinshausen (2011). "Decision support for international climate policy - The PRIMAP emission module." Environmental Modelling and Software Vol. 26 Issue 12, p.1419-1433. (HTML)

Schleußner, C.-F., Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Yin, J., Levermann, A. (2011). "Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast", Earth System Dynamics 2, 191-200, doi:10.5194/esd-2-191-2011..

Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Schneider von Deimling, T., Andrews, T., Forster, P. (2011). "Changes in global?mean precipitation in response to warming, greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon." Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L04702

Rahmstorf, S., Perrette, M. and Vermeer, M. (2011). Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections. Climate Dynamics, preprint, 1-15. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7

Lamarque, J.-F., G. P. Kyle, M. Meinshausen, K. Riahi, S. J. Smith, D. P. van Vuuren, A. J. Conley and F. Vitt (2011). "Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways." Climatic change 109(1-2): 191-212.


Rogelj, J., C. Chen, J. Nabel, K. Macey, W. Hare, M. Schaeffer, K. Markmann, N. Höhne, K. Krogh Andersen and M. Meinshausen (2010). "Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impact - a snapshot of dissonant ambitions." Environmental Research Letters 5(3): 034013. (HTML) (PDF)

Reisinger, A., M. Meinshausen, M. Manning and G. Bodeker (2010). "Uncertainties of global warming metrics: CO2 and CH4." Geophysical Research Letters 37: L14707, doi:10.1029/2010GL043803 (PDF).

Manning, M. R., J. Edmonds, S. Emori, A. Grubler, K. Hibbard, F. Joos, M. Kainuma, R. F. Keeling, T. Kram, A. C. Manning, M. Meinshausen, R. Moss, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S. K. Rose, S. Smith, R. Swart and D. P. van Vuuren (2010) "Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios." Nature Geoscience 3(6): 376. (PDF)

Rogelj, J., J. Nabel, C. Chen, W. Hare, K. Markmann, M. Meinshausen, M. Schaeffer, K. Macey & N. Höhne (2010) "Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry" Nature 464(7292

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