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Impacts module publications

The PRIMAP group has published extensively on the impacts of climate change, covering topics ranging from sea-level rise to impacts on natural ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, health and coastal infrastructure.


Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M.F.P., Ciais, P., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., Döll, P., Falloon, P., Fekete, B., Folberth, C., Friend, A.D., Gellhorn, C., Gosling, S.N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Neumann, K., Oki, T., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A.C., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Stacke, T., Stehfest, E., Tang, Q., Wisser, D., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Schellnhuber, H.J. "A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: Land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties", ESD, accepted

Frieler, K., Clark, P. U., He, F., Buizert, C., Reese, R, Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A. "Consistent Evidence of Increasing Antarctic Accumulation with Warming", Nature Climate Change, accepted


Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Eliseev, A. V., Levermann, A. (2014) "Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change", ERL, ERL-100440.R1

Levermann, A., Winkelmann, R., Nowicki, S., Fastook, J., Frieler, K., Greve, R., Hellmer, H.H., Martin, M.A., Mengel, M., Payne, A.J., Pollard, D., Sato, T., Timmermann, R., Wang, W.L., Bindschadler, R.A. (2014) "Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models", The Cryosphere

Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J.,Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., Levermann, A. (2014). "Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222469111


Gregory, J., D. Bi, M. Collier, M. Dix, A. Hirst, A. Hu, M. Huber, R. Knutti, S. Marsland and M. Meinshausen (2013). "Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion." Geophysical Research Letters 40(8): 1600-1604.

Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N. , Eisnerk, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C, Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T. , Tang, Q., Wisser, D. (2013) "Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3239-3244. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222474110

Warszawski, L., Friend, A., Ostberg, S., Frieler, K., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S., Beerling, D., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Kahana, R., Ito, A., Keribin, R., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M., Nishina, K., Pavlick, R., Rademacher, T. T., Buechner, M., Piontek, F., Schewe, J., Serdeczny, O., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2013) "A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change", ERL. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018.

Warszawski, L., Frieler, K
., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., Schewe, S. (2013) "The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3228-3232. doi:10.1073/pnas.1312330110

Menon, A., Levermann, A., Schewe, J., Lehmann, J., Frieler, K. (2013) "Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models", Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287- 300.

Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Frieler, K., Müller, C., Gerten, D., Meinshausen, M., and Lucht, W. (2013) "A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming", Geoscientific Model Development.

Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N.W., Clark, D.B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B., Colón-González, F.J., Gosling, S.,N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y, Portmann, F.T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Kabat, P. (2013) "Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3245-3250.  doi:10.1073/pnas.1222460110

Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., & Piontek, F., (2013) "A trend-preserving bias correction -- the ISI-MIP approach", Earth Syst. Dynam. doi:10.5194/esd-4-219-2013 2013.

Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Clark, D., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Colón-González, F.J., Flörke, M., Folberth, C., Franssen, W., Frieler, K., Friend, A.D., Gosling, S.N., Hemming, D., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Mengel, M., Morse, A., Neumann, K., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schewe, J., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Tessler, Z., Tompkins, A. M., Warszawski, L., Wisser, D., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2013) "Multi-sectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 9, 3233-3238. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222471110

Perrette, M., Riva, R., Landerer, F. W., Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M. (2013) "A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties", Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11-29.

Eby, M., Weaver, a. J., Alexander, K., Zickfeld, K., Abe-Ouchi, a., Cimatoribus, a. a., Crespin, E., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, N. R., Eliseev, a. V., Feulner, G.,Fichefet, T., Forest, C. E., Goosse, H., Holden, P. B., Joos, F.,Kawamiya, M.,Kicklighter, D., Kienert, H., Matsumoto, K., Mokhov, I. I., Monier, E., Olsen, S. M.,Pedersen, J. O. P., Perrette, M. et al., (2013). Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity. Climate of the Past, 9(3), 1111-1140. doi:10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013

Bittermann, K., Rahmstorf, S., Perrette, M., & Vermeer, M. (2013). Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1), 014013. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014013


Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Martin, M. A., Frieler, K. (2012) "Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall", Nature, 492, 7428, 239-242.

Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2012) "Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs", Nature Climate Change, 3, 165-170.

Schneider von Deimling, T., Meinshausen, M., Levermann, A., Huber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. M., Brovkin V. (2012). "Estimating the permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming." Biogeosciences, 9, 649-665.



Schewe, J., A. Levermann and M. Meinshausen (2011). "Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 C of global warming: Monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise." Earth System Dynamics 2(1): 25-35.

Schleußner, C.-F., Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Yin, J., Levermann, A. (2011). "Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast", Earth System Dynamics 2, 191-200, doi:10.5194/esd-2-191-2011.

Rahmstorf, S., Perrette, M. and Vermeer, M. (2011). Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections. Climate Dynamics, preprint, 1-15. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7

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