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PRIMAP IV – SAR GWP - CRF EDGAR WEO CDIAC POLES MATCH Baseline

(This baseline has been used since November 2011. Description of PRIMAP4 baseline previous to November 2011)

Source code: PRIMAP4
Scenario code: HISPROJECT

General description

Basis for the PRIMAP IV baseline scenario is the previous PRIMAP III baseline scenario in which the slopes for the energy sector as they are found in the Climate Change Excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2009 are inserted.

Basis for the PRIMAP III baseline scenario are the national inventory submissions to the UNFCCC as submitted by parties (further denominated as common reporting format data or “CRF data”). This reported data is extended with data from EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research) and, in case of CO2, extended further into the past with historical data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC). For future projections, data from WEO (World Energy Outlook) (until 2030), the POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) model (until 2050) and the downscaled composite scenario based on the SRES A1B pathway which was developed in the framework of the MATCH process (Ad Hoc Group for the Modelling and Assessment of Contributions of Climate Change) is used. To complement the MATCH pathways for F-gases, the downscaled SRES A1B pathway of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) was used.

Construction

General approach

 

The PRIMAP IV baseline is constructed in the same way as the PRIMAP III baseline with the addition of WEO data.

Generally, data is taken from the highest priority source and extended using the slopes from lower priority sources. (for the exact procedure see Nabel et. al. “Decision support for international climate policy – the PRIMAP emission module”) The prioritization for PRIMAP III is the following (from higher to lower): CRF, EDGAR, WEO, CDIAC, POLES, MATCH. Any gaps remaining after this process are interpolated linearly. At the boundaries data is extended constantly using the last value if there is no data available.

This method is used for total emissions excluding LULUCF with two special cases: POLES contains categories “Total Energy” and “Industrial Processes”. Those categories are summed with categories “Agriculture” and “Waste” from the MATCH source and taken as projections for total emissions excluding LULUCF. As both the WEO2009 Climate Change Excerpt data and the POLES model have spatial resolutions which do not include emission data on a country level for all countries, the regional values in the WEO data and the POLES model are downscaled to the country level. The WEO data was downscaled with the CO2 emissions of the “Total Energy” category of the MATCH source as a downscale key. The POLES data was downscaled with KyotoGHG emission shares found in the “Total Emissions excluding LULUCF” category of the MATCH source as a downscale key. POLES data for the non-CO2 basket is downscaled to individual gases (N2O, CH4, and F-gases basket) using the MATCH data. The WEO data only covers category “Total Energy” and CO2. Therefore, PRIMAP IV is identical to PRIMAP III except for CO2 emissions in category “Total Energy”.

The PRIMAP IV baseline is created starting from the PRIMAP III baseline. For category “Total Energy” and CO2 the PRIMAP III baseline is built individually and subtracted from the “National Total Excluding LULUCF” PRIMAP III baseline. Then the PRIMAP IV baseline for category “Total Energy” and CO2 is built and added to the changed PRIMAP III baseline to create the “National Total Excluding LULUCF” PRIMAP IV baseline.

The MATCH data is extended by F-gas data from the downscaled SRES A1B pathway of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP).

The baselines are calculated individually for CO2, N2O, CH4, and FGASES. NONCO2 and KYOTOGHG baskets are aggregated subsequently. The “National Total” category is created from the sum of total emissions excluding LULUCF and LULUCF data.

All regional values were removed and reconstructed from their members after the baseline creation in order to improve the consistency in the final data set. Only the values for Serbia and Montenegro were downscaled using fixed shares equal to their respective proportions in GDP (in PPP) in 2000 according to the World Economic Outlook (In POLES, MATCH).

In case of LULUCF data, rather than extend data with the slopes of lower priority data, gaps are filled in directly with the values in the lower priority data. POLES and CDIAC as well as MNP for F-gases do not contain LULUCF data, therefore the resulting LULUCF baseline is CRF and NATCOM data filled in with the MATCH SRES A1B pathway. The LULUCF baseline of PRIMAP IV is identical to the LULUCF baseline of PRIMAP III.

Approximations and assumptions

The same approximations and assumption as in PRIMAP I are made.

The historic values for F-gases for sources in this baseline only reach back to between 1980 and 1990 depending on the country. Emissions from F-gases are assumed to be zero in 1940, the first year of non-negligible emissions. The values are interpolated linearly between the last available value and zero in 1940.

The POLES growth rate for the sum of categories “Total energy” and “Industrial Processes” is supplemented by MATCH data for the “Agriculture” and “Waste” categories and taken as the growth rate of category “National Total Excluding LULUCF”.

In the process of downscaling POLES non-CO2 data, F-gases data for the CATM0EL is used as downscaling data for the combined category “Total Energy” and “Industrial Processes” data, while for CH4 and N2O combined “Total Energy” and “Industrial Processes” data is used.

Regional data in CDIAC is downscaled using proportional shares from country data in CDIAC at a particular year. If such data does not exist, the proportional shares are taken from GDP data.

SAR GWPs are used to sum up single gases to the KyotoGHG basket.

The land use change emissions provided in the MATCH source for CO2 are used (a) as a proxy for the “LULUCF” category and (b) a proxy for the entire Kyoto greenhouse gas (KyotoGHG) basket of the latter category.



References to Source Data

  • CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre):
    Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres.
    2008. Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.
    http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html
  • CRF2010:
    UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2010 http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/5270.php (2010).
  • CRF2011:
    UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2011 http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/5888.php (2011).
  • EDGAR:
    European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.0 (2009).
    http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu
  • IMAGE (integrated in MATCH):
    IMAGE-team. The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios. A comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century. Report No. 481508018, (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, 2001).
  • MATCH: Ad Hoc Group for the Modelling and Assessment of Contributions of Climate Change
    Höhne, N. et al. Contributions of individual countries’ emissions to climate change and their uncertainty. Climatic change (submitted).
    This project yielded a composite data source for all nations with both historical data and projections based on the IMAGE implementation of the SRES A1B scenario. For the PRIMAP baseline construction, the ‘best estimate’ trajectory was taken.
  • MNP:
    Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Downscaling drivers of global environmental change, Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels. http://www.mnp.nl/en/publications/2006/index.html (2006).
  • National Communications:
    National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention
    FCCC/SBI/2005/18/Add.2
    http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2005/sbi/eng/18a02.pdf
    and updates from:
    http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146.php
  • POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), ENERDATA:
    http://www.enerdata.fr/enerdatauk/tools/Model_POLES.html
    http://webu2.upmf-grenoble.fr/iepe/textes/POLES8p_01.pdf
    Data Provider: Enerdata, www.enerdata.fr
  • SRES A1B (integrated in MATCH):
    Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. 612 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2000).
  • WECO (World Economic Outlook):
    World Economic Outlook Databases, April 2008 edition
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/weodata/index.aspx
  • WEO2009 (World Energy Outlook):
    World Energy Outlook 2009 – Climate Change Excerpt
    http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf
  • SAR (IPCC Second Assessment Report)
    IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Houghton., J.T., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572pp.
  • AR4 (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)
    IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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