What emissions reductions are required to stay well below 2°C or to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C?

How much will greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced to avoid a particular climate impact?

Will post-2015 agreements ensure a high probability of e.g. saving coral reefs?

PRIMAP aims to synthesize earth system science and multi-model impact projections to address these crucial research questions for science and society alike.

Project leader: Katja Frieler

Team members: Tobias Geiger, Robert Gieseke, Johannes Gütschow, Louise Jeffery, Sebastian LangeMalte Meinshausen (University of Melbourne), Daniela Narezo Guzman, Christian Otto, Jacob Schewe, Jan Volkholz

PRIMAP traces the entire modelling chain from Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to impacts on the natural and built environment, which is visualised here.

1. Emissions module

Assesses global GHG emission pathways under different mitigation assumption and equity proposals.

See relevant publications.

2. Climate module

The reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC produces highly efficient probabilistic global mean temperature projections for arbitrary emission scenarios.

See relevant publications.

3. Impact emulator

EXPACT provides probabilistic projections of climate impacts, such as regional sea level rise and coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change.  This prototype impact emulator accounts for simultaneous occurrence of impacts from extreme events, based on the ISI-MIP database, and will be applied for comprehensive climate risk assessments.

See relevant publications.

Selected PRIMAP publications

The Nature 2°C paper on "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C"

See the latest news from PRIMAP.

The Paris-Reality-Check website offers an user-friendly portal to explore emissions data and scenarios, equity assessments and climate impacts of different emissions scenarios.

Third party funded projects contributing to PRIMAP:

  • EXPACT: Where to stop? - Efficient projections of correlated impacts at different levels of global warming, funded by SAW, 01.07.2013-30.06.2016
  • HELIX: High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes, funded by EU, 01.11.2013-31.10.2017
  • ISIMIP: Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, funded by BMBF, 01.04.2012-31.12.2015
  • SURVIVE: Science and policy to assist and support SIDS and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs, funded by BMU, 01.09.2011-31.08.2014
  • CAT: Climate Action Tracker, funded by European Climate Foundation, 01.01.2012-2015
  • PRIMAP collaborates on several projects with the non-profit organisation Climate Analytics.

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