Flagship MusiX: Multi-sector impacts and climate eXtremes

Speaker: Christoph Müller


Summary:

Global-scale scenarios for sector-specific climate impacts are being developed for water, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity and ecosystems as well as cities. Systematic assessments of climate risks and uncertainties in various sectors are conducted with global coverage. Global modeling approaches interact with regional case studies as much as possible. Moreover, a global synthesis of climate impacts across sectors and regions will be conducted, with a focus on economic damages, costs, and risks as well as human livelihoods. These socio-economic metrics will be used to aggregate impacts across very different domains. A consistent aggregation of multi-sector impacts will be followed by an assessment of strategies for risk management and adaptation at different scales, including technological development, international trade as well as institutional change.


Key questions:

  1. How will a strong future increase in bioenergy demand affect land rents? What are the limits of global bioenergy production due to the availability of land and water?
  2. What is the role of technological change in competing uses of land and water for food production, energy production, forestry and biodiversity conservation?
  3. How important are changes in food demand patterns and habits for global land use patterns and land-use related emissions?
  4. What is an optimal global land use strategy for maintaining species and landscape diversity?

Outcome:

The MusiX flagship project covers large-scale biogeochemical as well as socio-economic processes. This group provides long-term global scenarios with a high spatial resolution on socio-economic development, climate impact assessments and adaptation strategies, to be used as inputs by regional and sectoral modeling groups. Regional modeling groups systematically contribute their detailed results to highly aggregated global syntheses of climate impacts and costs. Global-scale assessments can guide selection of regional hot-spots for detailed impacts studies. This regional-global interaction is already being successfully pursued at PIK in current BMBF projects GLUES and INNOVATE. Interaction and cooperation between different modeling groups within RD2 will be further strengthened within the cross-cutting activity “Global-Regional Integration of Impact Studies”.


Third party funded projects contributing to MusiX:

  • CC-LandStraD: Interdependencies between Land use and Climate Change– Strategies for a sustainable land use management in Germany, funded by BMBF, Nachhaltiges Landmanagement Modul A1, 01.11.2010-31.10.2015, contact: Frank Wechsung
  • CSIRO-PIK Collaboration in assessments of sustainable pathways for feeding 9 billion people, 01.01.2013-31.12.2015, contact: Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • ECONADAPT: Economics of climate change adaptation in Europe, 01.11.2013-30.10.2016, contact: Anne Biewald
  • FAO: Estimation of food calorie demand, funded by FAO, 18.08.2014-10.05.2015, contact: Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • GLUES: Global Assessment of Land Use dynamics on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem Services,  funded by BMBF, 01.01.2010-31.12.2014, contact: Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • IFPRI-USDA: Estimation of yield effects, funded by IFPRI, 15.06.2014-30.11.2014, contact: Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • INNOVATE: Interplay between the multiple use of water reservoirs via inNOVative coupling of substance cycles in Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems, funded by BMBF, 01.01.2012-31.12.2016, contact: Anne Biewald
  • KULUNDA: Process-based Modelling of the Carbon Cycle and the Impact of Land Use Changes on the Regional Carbon Balance of the Kulunda Steppe, funded by BMBF, 01.01.2012-30.09.2016, contact: Christoph Müller
  • MACMIT: Climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management, Junior research group "global change 4+1" funded by BMBF, 01.08.2014-31.07.2018, contact: Christoph Müller
  • MACSUR: Climate change risk assessment for European agriculture and food security, funded by BMBF, EU-Joint Programming Initiative “Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change”Knowledge Hubs “Economics and trade“, 01.07.2012-30.06.2015, contact: Hermann Lotze-Campen/Christoph Müller
  • Trans-SEC: Innovating Strategies to safeguard Food Security using Technology and Knowledge Transfer: A people-centred Approach,01.05.2013-30.04.2016, contact: Christoph Müller
  • VOLANTE: Visions of land use transitions in Europe, funded by EU FP7, 01.11.2010-30.04.2015, contact: Hermann Lotze-Campen

    Finished:

      • HTC: Hydrothermal Carbonization of biomass to coal, funded by BMBF, 01.04.2009-31.06.2012, contact: H.-Lotze-Campen
      • ICRAF/CCAFS: Pressures on agriculture from increased bioenergy demand, funded by The World Agroforestry Centre, 15.12.2011-14.12.2012, contact: H.-Lotze-Campen
      • NaWaMa: Sustainable water management in a globalized world, funded by BMBF, 01.04.2010-31.03.2013, contact: Anne Biewald

      Selected MusiX publications

      Land use modelling publications

      Visualization and determination of demand scenarios


      Master Thesis and internships:

      You want to write your master thesis in the landuse group of PIK? Or you want to stay for a longer internship? Please have a look at our potential topic list and contact us!

      Models:


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