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Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations
October 2010 until September 2014
217.560 € funded by EU - European Union: FP7
Fred Hattermann / Holger Hoff

Africa is already a continent under a heavy pressure from climate stresses and due to its current low adaptation capacity, it is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Therefore stakeholders need the appropriate and most up-to-date tools to better understand and predict climate change, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and evaluate and undertake the correct adaptation strategies. In this respect there is an urgent need to i)develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales in SSA, ii) evaluate climate change impacts on water and agriculture, iii) improve early warning systems from short to medium-long term predictions and iv) propose new and feasible adaptation strategies, especially fitted for the weakest communities.

1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to SSA. 2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of SSA livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture. 3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate. 4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies, focused on local needs 5- Develop a new concept of 10 years monitoring and forecasting warning system, useful for food security, risk management and civil protection in SSA 6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in SSA and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.

PIK's contribution will be based on LPJmL simulations of natural vegetation, agriculture, water and carbon fluxes, to assess limitations, potentials and tradeoffs under climate and land use change. With that PIK can address ecosystem services such as food and biofuel production, carbon storage and water availability.More specifically PIK will contribute -baseline and scenario quantification of green and blue water consumption and productivity -baseline and scenario quantification of yields and water limitations in agricultural plant growth, including CO2 effects - potential of agricultural water management to alleviate water limitations to agricultural plant growth -changes in biome structure and associated shifts in biogeochemical fluxes (carbon, water)