Impacts: Sea-level rise

The following graphs show sea-level rise (SLR) projections using the method and code described in Mengel et al. (2016) for scenarios from the IPCC AR5 Scenario Database.

We only show the scenarios from the AR5 database for which temperature data of the 21st century is available. Temperature projectionss have been calculated by the reduced complexity climate model MAGICC6. We here use only the median temperature pathway for sea-level rise projections.

Mengel et al. (2016) include both the uncertainty of the sea-level rise response and uncertainty of the climate system response to greenhouse gas emissions through the MAGICC6 temperature ensemble. Here, the climate uncertainty is not included leading to narrower sea level uncertainty ranges as compared to Mengel et al. (2016).

See the paper and code repository for a description of the methodology.

Model scenarios and climate model output

Emissions scenarios

Temperature projection

SLR projection:

Select total sea-level rise or individual contributing factors to sea-level rise