PIKParis Reality Check: PRIMAP-hist

The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series

Dataset Description Paper

Gütschow, J.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R.; Gebel, R.; Stevens, D.; Krapp, M.; Rocha, M. (2016): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 571-603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-571-2016

Dataset Download (Version 2.1)

Gütschow, J.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R., Günther, A. (2019): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). v2.1. GFZ Data Services. https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2019.018

About PRIMAP-hist

The PRIMAP-hist dataset combines several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of greenhouse gas emission pathways for every country and Kyoto gas covering the years 1850 to 2017, and all UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) member states, as well as most non-UNFCCC territories. The data resolves the main IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2006 categories. Subsector data for Energy, Industrial Processes and Agriculture is available for CO2, CH4, and N2O. Due to data availability and methodological issues, version 2.1 of the PRIMAP-hist dataset does not include emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF).

Issue tracker on GitHub | Data Description and Changelog (PDF) | Updated Figures (PDF)

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Data:
Category
Other (IPC5)
Waste (IPC4)
Agriculture (IPCMAG, sum of IPC3A and IPCMAGELV)
Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPC2)
Energy (IPC1)
Totals (Excluding Land-Use)
Shift-click a category to toggle viewing a single category.
Group/Abbrev. Description
All parties Aggregated emissions for all countries.
Annex-I Annex-I Parties to the Convention
Non-Annex-I Non-Annex-I Parties to the Convention
AOSIS Alliance of Small Island States
BASIC BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China)
EU28 European Union
LDC Least Developed Countries
Umbrella-Group Umbrella Group

Recommended citation

When using this dataset, or one of its updates, please cite the DOI of the precise version of the dataset used and also the data description article to which this dataset is supplement. Please consider also citing relevant original sources when using the PRIMAP-hist dataset. References to the original sources can be found in the mansucript and on the dataset download page.

Description Article

Gütschow, J.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R.; Gebel, R.; Stevens, D.; Krapp, M.; Rocha, M. (2016): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 571-603, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-571-2016

Dataset

Gütschow, J.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R., Günther, A. (2019): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). v2.1. GFZ Data Services. https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2019.018

Contact

Johannes Gütschow, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, johannes.guetschow@pik-potsdam.de
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/johannes

We would appreciate it if you notify us when you use the dataset so that we can keep track of how it is used and take that into consideration when updating and improving the dataset.

Version 2.1 (November 2019)

The 2.1 release is a minor update of the v2.0 version. The methodology is unchanged, only the input sources have been updated where available. Additionally some bugs have been fixed.

Version 2.0

The v2.0 release comes with several important changes. The dataset now uses the sectors from the IPCC 2006 guidelines. It includes new and updated data sources (EDGAR v4.3.2, Andrew 2018 cement data, updated BUR, CRF and UNFCCC data, updated BP and FAO data). This release of PRIMAP-hist does not include LULUCF emissions. We also present two different time series to highlight discrepancies between data from third party assessments and data reported by countries. In the "country reported priority" time series we prioritize country reported data over third party data. This is a direct continuation of earlier versions of PRIMAP-hist. This time series has the scenario code "HISTCR". In the "third party priority" time series we prioritize data from third party assessments (e.g. by research institutes, international organization, or private companies) over the country reported data. The scenario code is "HISTTP".

See Gütschow et al. (2016) for the methodology description including limitations and uncertainties of the dataset. A new data description paper with detailed methodology description is currently under preparation. See also the data description at the Dataset Repository for a format description and changelog.

Why we currently do not include land use data in PRIMAP-hist

LULUCF data has high annual fluctuations which makes it difficult to combine datasets by scaling of one dataset to match the other (and use the growth rates of the scaled dataset to extend the other dataset). Thus in PRIMAP-hist v1 we used unscaled data, which introduces sudden changes in emissions timeseries that were often understood by users as changes in actual emissions instead of changes in underlying dataset. LULUCF emissions estimates vary strongly between different datasets and the methodologies used can be very different. There are also changes in methodologies within datasets, which again introduce sudden emissions changes into the timeseries. With the data currently available, we cannot produce time series that fulfill our requirements for internal consistency and easy usability by a broad audience. Describing the inconsistencies and the limitations to the use of the dataset resulting from these issues has proven not to suffice as the LULUCF data lead to misunderstandings. Thus we have decided to stop publishing LULUCF timeseries until either there are more consistent datasets or we develop an improved methodology to create a consistent and easy to use LULUCF dataset.

Notes

Emissions from international Aviation and Shipping are not included.

Gas categories are using global warming potentials from either the IPCC's (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Second Assessment Report (SAR) or Assessment Report 4 (AR4).

The last years of the time series are obtained using extrapolations for some sectors and gases for Non-Annex-I countries. Therefore these data have to be used with caution when making statements about short term emissions trends.
Please check out the dataset without extrapolation to find out which time series have been extrapolated. This dataset is available together with the extrapolated data under the DOI given below.

We provide a version of this dataset that does not use numerical extrapolation to the future that can be used for this purpose. Where regional data is used for extrapolation to the past, individual country developments are not taken into account and can not be deduced from the data. Short term trends can also be influenced by the combination of different sources, thus the consultation of original sources is advised before making statements about such trends.

Publications using PRIMAP-hist (most recent first)

Martin E. Wainstein, Jerôme Dangerman, and Stephanie Dangerman. Energy business transformation & Earth system resilience: A metabolic approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 215:854--869, April 2019. [ DOI ]

Raphael Ganzenmüller, Prajal Pradhan, and Jürgen P. Kropp. Sectoral performance analysis of national greenhouse gas emission inventories by means of neural networks. Science of The Total Environment, 656:80--89, March 2019. [ DOI ]

S Baruch-Mordo, J M Kiesecker, C M Kennedy, J R Oakleaf, and J J Opperman. From Paris to practice: Sustainable implementation of renewable energy goals. Environmental Research Letters, 14(2):024013, February 2019. [ DOI ]

Nicole J. van den Berg, Heleen L. van Soest, Andries F. Hof, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Wenying Chen, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Shinichiro Fujimori, Niklas Höhne, Alexandre C. Kõberle, David McCollum, Roberto Schaeffer, Swapnil Shekhar, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Zoi Vrontisi, and Kornelis Blok. Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways. Climatic Change, February 2019. [ DOI ]

Yann Robiou du Pont and Malte Meinshausen. Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges. Nature Communications, 9(1), December 2018. [ DOI ]

Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Florian Humpenöder, Isabelle Weindl, Miodrag Stevanović, Kristine Karstens, Ulrich Kreidenweis, Xiaoxi Wang, Abhijeet Mishra, David Klein, Geanderson Ambrósio, Ewerton Araujo, Amsalu Woldie Yalew, Lavinia Baumstark, Stephen Wirth, Anastasis Giannousakis, Felicitas Beier, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp. MAgPIE 4 - A modular open source framework for modeling global land-systems. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, pages 1--26, December 2018. [ DOI ]

Matthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Johnathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Kioshi Takahashi. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: A dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, pages 1--42, November 2018. [ DOI ]

Xunzhang Pan, Jie Tao, and Hailin Wang. Comparing and evaluating the nationally determined contributions of the top six emitters under the Paris Agreement goals. Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment, 16(3):211--219, October 2018. [ DOI ]

Gabriela Iacobuta, Navroz K. Dubash, Prabhat Upadhyaya, Mekdelawit Deribe, and Niklas Höhne. National climate change mitigation legislation, strategy and targets: A global update. Climate Policy, 18(9):1114--1132, October 2018. [ DOI ]

Johannes Gütschow, Mairi Louise Jeffery, Michiel Schaeffer, and Bill Hare. Extending Near-Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs. Earth's Future, 6(9):1242--1259, September 2018. [ DOI ]

Christian Holz, Lori Siegel, Eleanor Johnston, Andrew P. Jones, and John Sterman. Ratcheting ambition to limit warming to 1.5oC trade-offs between emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal. Environmental Research Letters, April 2018. [ DOI ]

Hélène Benveniste, Olivier Boucher, Céline Guivarch, Hervé Le Treut, and Patrick Criqui. Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: Uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 13(1):014022, January 2018. [ DOI ]

Xunzhang Pan, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Fei Teng, and Lining Wang. Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals. Environmental Science & Policy, 74:49--56, August 2017. [ DOI ]

Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J.M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H.J. Wang, and Ray Weiss. Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6). Geoscientific Model Development, 10(5):2057--2116, 2017. [ DOI ]

Joeri Rogelj, Oliver Fricko, Malte Meinshausen, Volker Krey, Johanna J J Zilliacus, and Keywan Riahi. Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties. Nature communications, 8:15748, 2017. [ DOI ]

Reports using PRIMAP-hist (most recent first)

Takeshi Kuramochi, Hanna Fekete, Lisa Luna, de Villafranca Casas Maria Jose, Leonardo Nascimento, Frederic Hans, Niklas Höhne, Heleen van Soest, Michel Den Elzen, Kendall Esmeijer, Mark Roelfsema, Nicklas Forsell, Olga Turkovska, and Mykola Gusti. Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2018 update. December 2018. [ Link ]

Jos G.J. Olivier and Jeroen A.H.W. Schure. Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions: 2018 Report. December 2018. [ Link ]

Florian Mersmann, Hanna Fekete, Lisa Luna, and Herbert Wade. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Republic of Marshall Islands Country Report. November 2018. [ Link ]

Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Peru. November 2018. [ Link ]

Julia Terrapon-Pfaff and Sarra Amroune. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Morocco. November 2018. [ Link ]

Lisa Luna, Hanna Fekete, and Tom Owino. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Kenya Country Report. November 2018. [ Link ]

Hanna Wang-Helmreich and Florian Mersmann. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Ethiopia Country Report. November 2018. [ Link ]

Katharina Lütkehermöller, Lisa Luna, Hanna Fekete, and Javier Tomas Blanco Freja. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Colombia Country Report. November 2018. [ Link ]

Maria Yetano Roche, Cordelia Paetz, and Carmen Dienst. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Islamic Republic of Iran Country Report. November 2018. [ Link ]

Swithin Lui. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Georgia Country Report. November 2018. [ Link ]

Heleen van Soest, Michel Den Elzen, Kendall Esmeijer, Detlef Van Vuuren, and Nicklas Forsell. Global and regional greenhouse gas emissions neutrality. September 2018. [ Link ]

Lisa Strauch, Yann Robiou Du Pont, and Julia Balanowski. Multi-level climate governance in Vietnam. 2018. [ .pdf ]

J.G.J. Olivier, K.M. Schure, and J.A.H.W. Peters. Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions: 2017 Report. December 2017. [ Link ]

Marion Vieweg, Hanna Fekete, Lisa Luna, and Vuong Xuan Hoa. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Viet Nam Country Report. October 2017. [ Link ]

Florian Mersmann, Timon Wehnert, Tatiana Andreeva, Hanna Fekete, Lisa Luna, and Verena Streiferdt. Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions - Indonesia Country Report. October 2017. [ Link ]

Yann Robiou du Pont. The Paris Agreement global goals: What does a fair share for G20 countries look like? The University of Melbourne, 2017. [ DOI ]

WWF Deutschland. Zukunft Stromsystem: Kohleausstieg 2035. 2017. [ Link ]

Climate Transparency. Brown to green. Technical report, 2017. [ Link ]

V Jan Burck, Franziska Marten, Christoph Bals, Thea Uhlich, Niklas Höhne, Sofia Gonzales, and Mia Moisio. Climate Change Performance Index 2017 G20 Edition. 2017.

Kelly Levin and David Rich. Turning Points: Trends in Countries' Reaching Peak Greenhouse Gas Emissions over Time. 2017. [ Link ]

Jan Burck, Franziska Marten, and Christoph Bals. The Climate Change Performance Index 2018. 2017. [ Link ]

Albert Faber, Peter J.M. de Goede, and Margot P.C. Weijnen. Long-Term Commitment for National Climate Policy in the Netherlands. Technical report, WRR: The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, The Hague, 2016. [ Link ]

Articles using PRIMAP-hist (most recent first)

Jocelyn Timperley. The Carbon Brief Profile: South Africa, October 2018.

Jocelyn Timperley. The Carbon Brief Profile: Brazil, July 2018.

Jocelyn Timperley. The Carbon Brief Profile: Japan, June 2018.

Jocelyn Timperley. The Carbon Brief Profile: Turkey, March 2018.

Karsten Neuhoff, Heiner von Lüpke, and Carlotta Pianteri. Das Kyoto-Protokoll feiert 20. Geburtstag. Technical report, DIW Berlin, Berlin, 2017.

Yann Robiou du Pont and Anita Talberg. Election FactCheck: Is Australia among the only major advanced economies where pollution levels are going up? The Conversation, May 2016.

Websites, Tools, and Datasets using PRIMAP-hist

SCP Hotspot Analysis. http://scp-hat.lifecycleinitiative.org/, 2018.

Malte Meinshausen and Ryan Alexander. NDC and INDC Factsheets (November 2017 version). http://climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/ndc-indc-factsheets, 2017.

Antti Lipponen. Cumulative CO2 Emissions by Country Since 1850. https://www.flickr.com/photos/150411108@N06/31153697117.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/paris-reality-check/