Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) & Scenarios

This page shows scenarios from the IPCC's AR5 scenario database in the context of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) projections. Mouseover the scenarios to see temperature projections for the selected scenario. To explore the AR5 scenarios in depth have a look at the AR5 Scenario Explorer.

Historical data is from PRIMAPHIST.
INDC ranges (in orange) are taken from the UNFCCC Synthesis report, paragraph 192: in relation to 2010 emissions, plus 8-18% by 2025, 11-22% by 2030.
Kyoto gas GHG emissions have been calculated from the emissions as supplied in the scenario data using 100-year global warming potentials (GWPs) from the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR).
Temperatures have been calculated using the reduced complexity climate model MAGICC6, shown are median, 5th and 95th percentile of the probabilistic run. For details see the AR5 Scenario Database. Shown here are only scenarios for which Kyoto Greenhouse Gases and temperature projections were available until 2100.