You are here: Home PIK Members Sebastian Ostberg Publications


Peer-reviewed articles


Ostberg, S., Schewe, J., Childers, K., and Frieler, K. (2018): Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming, Earth System Dynamics, 9, 479-496, doi: 10.5194/esd-9-479-2018

Döll, P., Trautmann, T., Gerten, D., Müller Schmied, H., Ostberg, S., Saeed, F., and Schleussner, C.-F. (2018): Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, Environmental Research Letters, 13, 044038, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab792

Ostberg, S., Boysen, L.R., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Gerten, D. (2018): The Biosphere Under Potential Paris Outcomes, Earth’s Future, 6, 23-39, doi:10.1002/2017EF000628


Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C.P.o:, Schewe, J., Warszawaski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T.D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S.N., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D.P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Biber, M.F., Betts, R.A., Bodirsky, B.L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C.D., Lotze, H.K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., and Yamagata, Y. (2017): Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 4321-4345, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017

Chen, M., Rafique, R., Asrar, G.R., Bond-Lamberty, B., Ciais, P., Zhao, F., Reyer, C.P.O., Ostberg, S., Chang, J., Ito, A., Yang, J., Zeng, N., Kalnay, E., West, T., Leng, G., Francois, L., Munhoven, G., Henrot, A., Tian, H., Pan, S., Nishina, K., Viovy, N., Morfopoulos, C., Betts, R., Schaphoff, S., Steinkamp, J., Hickler, T. (2017): Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity, Environmental Research Letters, 12, 105005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8978

Ito, A., Nishina, K., Reyer, C.P.O., François, L., Henrot, A.-J., Munhoven, G., Jacquemin, I., Tian, H., Yang, J., Pan, S., Morfopoulos, C., Betts, R., Hickler, T., Steinkamp, J., Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Ciais, P., Chang, J., Rafique, R., Zeng N., Zhao, F. (2017): Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies, Environmental Reseach Letters, 12, 085001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a19

Zhao, F., Veldkamp, T.I.E., Frieler, K., Schewe, J., Ostberg, S., Willner, S., Schauberger, B., Gosling, S.N., Müller Schmied, H., Portmann, F.T., Leng, G., Huang, M., Liu, X., Tang, Q., Hanasaki, N., Biemans, H., Gerten, D., Satoh, Y., Pokhrel, Y., Stacke, T., Ciais, P., Chang, J., Ducharne, A., Guimberteau, M., Wada, Y., Kim, H. Yamazaki, D. (2017):  The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models, Environmental Research Letters, 12, 075003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7250

Veldkamp, T.I.E., Wada, Y., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Doell, P., Gosling, S.N., Liu, J., Masaki, Y., Oki, T., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Kim, H., Ward, P.J. (2017): Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century, Nature Communications, 8, 15697, doi:10.1038/ncomms15697

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and


Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W. and Gerten, D. (2015): Three centuries of dual pressure from land use and climate change on the biosphere, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 0440141, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044011

Bonsch, M., Popp, A., Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Schmitz, C., Weindl, I., Stevanovic, M., Högner, K., Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Dietrich, J.p:, Bodirski, B., Lotze-Campen, H., Humpenöder, F. (2015): Environmental low provision: Implications for agricultural water and land-use at the global scale, Global Environmental Change, 30, 113-132, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.10.015


Friend, A.D., Lucht, W., Rademacher, T.T., Keribin, R., Betts, R., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D.B., Dankers, R., Falloon, P.D., Ito, A., Kahana, R., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M.R., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Peylin, P., Schaphoff, S., Vuichard, N., Warszawski, L., Wiltshire, A. and Woodward, F.I. (2014): Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119, 3280-3285, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222477110

Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Colón González, F.J., Flörke, M., Folberth, C., Franssen, W., Frieler, K., Friend, A.D., Gosling, S.N., Hemming, D., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lomas, M.R., Masaki, Y., Mengel, M., Morse, A., Neumann, K., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A.C., Schewe, J., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Tessler, Z.D., Tompkins, A.M., Warszawski, L., Wisser, D. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2014): Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world,  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119, 3233-3238, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222471110


Warszawski, L., Friend, A., Ostberg, S., Frieler, K., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S., Beerling, D., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D.B., Kahana, R., Ito, A., Keribin, R., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M.R. , Nishina, K., Pavlick, R., Rademacher, T. T., Piontek, F., Schewe, J., Serdeczny, O., Buechner, M., and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2013): A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shift under climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 8, 044018, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018

Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Frieler, K., Müller, C., Gerten, D., Meinshausen, M. and Lucht, W. (2013): A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming, Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1689-1703, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013

Ostberg, S., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S. and Gerten, D. (2013): Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems, Earth System Dynamics, 4, 347-357, doi:10.5194/esd-4-347-2013

Gerten, D., Lucht, W., Ostberg, S., Heinke, J., Kowarsch, M., Kreft, H., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Rastgooy, J., Warren, R. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2013): Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems, Environmental Research Letters, 8, 034032, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032

Schaphoff, S., Heyder, U., Ostberg, S., Gerten, D., Heinke, J. and Lucht, W. (2013): Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget, Environmental Research Letters, 8, 014026, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014026


Rammig, A., Jupp, T., Thonicke, K., Tietjen, B., Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W. and Cox, P. (2010): Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback, New Phytologist, 187, 694-706, doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03318.x

Document Actions