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Publications

Journal Articles (peer reviewed)

2015

  • Bertram C, Luderer G, Pietzcker RC, Schmid E, Kriegler E, et al. (2015) Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach. Nature Clim Change. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2514

  • Arroyo-Currás T, Bauer N, Kriegler E, et al. (2015) Carbon leakage in a fragmented climate regime: The dynamic response of global energy markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A:192–203. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.002
  • Kriegler E, Petermann N, Krey V, et al. (2015) Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A:45–61. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
  • Kriegler E, Riahi K, Bauer N, et al. (2015) Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A:24–44. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.021
  • Kriegler E, Riahi K, Bosetti V, et al. (2015) Introduction to the AMPERE model intercomparison studies on the economics of climate stabilization. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A:1–7. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.10.012

  • O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Ebi KL, et al. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 (online first)

  • Riahi K, Kriegler E, Johnson N, et al. (2015) Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A:8–23. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016
  • Schaeffer M, Gohar L, Kriegler E, et al. (2015) Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A:257–268. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.013

  • Tavoni M, Kriegler E, Riahi K, et al. (2015) Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models. Nature Clim Change 5:119–126. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2475

2014

  • Aboumahboub T, Luderer G, Kriegler E, et al. (2014) On The Regional Distribution Of Climate Mitigation Costs: The Impact Of Delayed Cooperative Action. Clim Change Econ 05:1440002. doi: 10.1142/S2010007814400028

  • Blanford GJ, Kriegler E, Tavoni M (2014) Harmonization vs. fragmentation: overview of climate policy scenarios in EMF27. Climatic Change 123:383–396. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0951-9

  • Ebi KL, Hallegatte S, Kram T, Kriegler E, et al. (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions. Climatic Change 122:363–372. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3

  • Krey V, Luderer G, Clarke L, Kriegler E (2014) Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios. Climatic Change 1–14. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0947-5

  • Kriegler E, Edmonds J, Hallegatte S, et al. (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions. Climatic Change 122:401–414. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0971-5

  • Kriegler E, Weyant JP, Blanford GJ, et al. (2014) The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change 123:353–367. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0953-7

  • O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Riahi K, et al. (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change 122:387–400. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2

  • Pietzcker RC, Longden T, Chen W, Kriegler E, et al. (2014) Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models. Energy 64:95–108. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.08.059

  • Strefler J, Luderer G, Aboumahboub T, Kriegler E (2014) Economic impacts of alternative greenhouse gas emission metrics: a model-based assessment. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1188-y

  • Strefler J, Luderer G, Kriegler E, Meinshausen M (2014) Can air pollutant controls change global warming? Environmental Science & Policy 41:33–43. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.04.009

  • Vuuren DP van, Kriegler E, O’Neill BC, et al. (2014) A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122:373–386. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1

  • Weyant J, Kriegler E (2014) Preface and introduction to EMF 27. Climatic Change 123:345–352. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1102-7

  • Zhang S, Bauer N, Luderer G, Kriegler E (2014) Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND. Applied Energy 115:445–455. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.10.039

2013

  • Bauer N, Mouratiadou I, Luderer G, Kriegler E, et al. (2013) Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND. Climatic Change 1–14. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0901-6
  • Klein D, Luderer G, Kriegler E, et al. (2013) The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE. Climatic Change 1–14. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0940-z
  • Kriegler E, Edenhofer O, Reuster L, et al. (2013) Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation? Climatic Change 118:45–57. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0681-4
  • Kriegler E, Tavoni M, Aboumahboub T, et al. (2013) What does the 2°C target imply for a global climate agreement in 2020? The LIMITS study on Durban Platform scenarios. Clim Change Econ 04:1340008. doi: 10.1142/S2010007813400083

  • Kriegler E, Tavoni M, Riahi K, Van Vuuren D.P. (2013) Introducing the limits special issue. Clim Change Econ 04:1302002. doi: 10.1142/S2010007813020028

  • Leimbach M, Kriegler E, Roming N, Schwanitz VJ (2013). Future growth patterns of world regions - A GDP scenario approach, Global Environmental Change, under review.
  • Luderer G, Pietzcker R. C., Bertram C, Kriegler E, Meinshausen M, Edenhofer O (2013) Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3) 034033.
  • Luderer G, Bertram C, Calvin K, Kriegler E, et al. (2013) Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways. Climatic Change 1–14. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0899-9
  • Luderer G, Pietzcker RC, Bertram C, Kriegler E, et al. (2013) Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets. Environ Res Lett 8:034033. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034033
  • Popp A, Rose SK, Calvin K, Kriegler E, et al. (2013) Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options. Climatic Change 1–15. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0926-x
  • Rose SK, Kriegler E, Bibas R, et al. (2013) Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management. Climatic Change 1–17. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0965-3
  • Schmidt M. G. W., Held H., Kriegler E, Lorenz A (2013) Climate policy under uncertain and heterogeneous climate damages. Environmental and Resource Economics, 54(1): 79-99.
  • Tavoni M, Kriegler E, Aboumahboub T, et al. (2013) The distribution of the major economies’ effort in the durban platform scenarios. Clim Change Econ 04:1340009. doi: 10.1142/S2010007813400095

2012 and earlier

  • K. Calvin, L. Clarke, V. Krey, G. Blanford, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. Kriegler, G. Luderer, P. R. Shukla (2012) The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise. Energy Economics, 34(3): S251-S260.
  • E. Kriegler, M. Conestabile (2012) Building consistency (interview). Nature Climate Change, 2: 702.
  • E. Kriegler, B. C. O’Neill, S. Hallegatte, T. Kram, R. J. Lempert, R. H. Moss, T. Wilbanks (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: a new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change, 22: 807-822.
  • A. Lorenz, E. Kriegler, H. Held, M. G. W. Schmidt (2012) How to measure the importance of climate risk for determining optimal global abatement policies? Climate Change Economics, 3(1): 1250004-2-1250004-28.
  • A. Lorenz, M. G. W. Schmidt, E. Kriegler, H. Held, (2012) Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 17 (1-2): 163-175.
  • G. Luderer, R. Pietzcker, E. Kriegler, M. Haller, N. Bauer (2012) Asia’s role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R. Energy Economics, 34(3): S378-S390.
  • V. J. Schweizer, E. Kriegler (2012) Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4) 044011.
  • E. Kriegler (2011) Comment on “The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming”. Energy Economics, 33(4): 594-596.
  • M. G. W. Schmidt, A. Lorenz, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J.W. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2011) Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies. Climatic Change, 104(3-4): 783-791.
  • E. Kriegler. J. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 106(13): 5041-5046.
  • H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, O. Edenhofer (2009) Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty. Energy Economics 31(1): S50-S61.
  • D. Patino-Echeverri, P. Fischbeck, E. Kriegler (2009) The economic and environmental costs of regulatory uncertainty for coal-fired power plants. Environmental Science & Technology 43(3): 578-584.
  • E. Kriegler (2009) Updating under unknown unknowns: An open version of Bayes' rule. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 50(4): 583-596.
  • H. Held, T. Augustin, E. Kriegler (2008) Bayesian learning for a class of priors with prescribed marginals. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 49: 212-233.
  • T. Lenton, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J.W. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2008) Tipping element's in the earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 105: 1786-1793.
  • E. Kriegler (2007) On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate sytem? Environmental Research Letters 2, 011001.
  • E. Kriegler, H. Held (2005) Utilizing belief functions for the estimation of future climate change. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 39: 185-209 (pre-press version of the paper).
  • O. Edenhofer, N. Bauer, E. Kriegler (2005)  The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND. Ecological Economics 54: 277-292.
  • E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner (2004)  Sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors for the 21st century. Climatic Change 66: 345-387 (pre-press version of the paper).

 

IPCC and Policy Reports

  • Clarke L., K. Jiang, K. Akimoto, M. Babiker, G. Blanford, K. Fisher-Vanden, J.-C. Hourcade, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, A. Löschel, D. McCollum, S. Paltsev, S. Rose, P.R. Shukla, M. Tavoni, B. van der Zwaan, and D. P. van Vuuren, 2014: Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • Krey V., O. Masera, G. Blanford, T. Bruckner, R. Cooke, K. Fisher-Vanden, H. Haberl, E. Hertwich, E. Kriegler, D. Mueller, S. Paltsev, L. Price, S. Schlömer, D. Ürge-Vorsatz, D. P. van Vuuren, and T. Zwickel, 2014: Annex II: Metrics & Methodology. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • Kriegler E., Riahi K., Petermann N. et al. (2014): Assessing Pathways toward Ambitious Climate Targets at the Global and European Levels. A synthesis of results from the AMPERE project Potsdam: AMPERE-Consortium, 30 p. PDF
  • Tavoni, M, Kriegler, E, Riahi, K, van Vuuren D. P., Petermann, N, et al. (2014). Limiting Global Warming to 2°C, Policy findings from Durban Platform scenario analyses. PDF
  • Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., Luderer, G., et al. (2013). Roadmaps towards Sustainable Energy futures and climate protection: A synthesis of results from the RoSE project (1st edition). Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam. PDF
  • M. D. Mastrandrea, C. B. Field, T. F. Stocker, O. Edenhofer, K. L. Ebi, D. J. Frame, H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. J. Mach, P. R. Matschoss, G.-K. Plattner, G. W. Yohe, F. W. Zwiers (2010) Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. IPCC Cross-Working Group Meeting on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Jasper Ridge, CA, USA
  • O. Edenhofer, E. Kriegler, N. Bauer (2002) Szenarien zum Umbau des Energiesystems (Scenarios for a transition of the energy system), External report to the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), in German. Partly published in: WBGU (2003) World in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Chapter 4.5.1, Earthscan, London.


Chapters in Books (peer reviewed)

  • O. Edenhofer, R. Pietzcker, M. Kalkuhl, E. Kriegler (2010) Price and quantity regulation for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In: Global Sustainability - A Nobel Cause. Eds.: H. J. Schellnhuber, M. Molina, N. Stern, V. Huber, S. Kadner. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press
  • O. Edenhofer, R. Pietzcker, M. Kalkuhl, E. Kriegler (2010) Taxation instruments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and comparison with quantity instruments. In: The Economics of Climate Change in China. Eds.: G. Fan, N. Stern, O. Edenhofer, S. Xu, K. Eklund, F. Ackerman, L. Li, K. Hallding. London: Earthscan
  • E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner (2007) Climate protection strategies under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences. In J. Kropp, J. Scheffran (eds): Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk Management in Sustainability Science, Nova Science Publ. Inc., New York, pp. 3-42.

 

Articles in Conference Proceedings (peer reviewed)

 

Other Articles and Reports

  • Luderer G, Leimbach M, Bauer N, Kriegler E, et al. (2013) Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.5). SSRN Working Paper 2312844
  • N. Arnell, T. Kram, T. Carter, K. Ebi, J. Edmonds, S. Hallegatte, E. Kriegler, R. Mathur, B. C. O’Neill,      K. Riahi, H. Winkler, D. van Vuuren, T. Zwickel (2011) A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation research. Scenario Framework Paper. Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). 42 p.
  • E. Kriegler, B. C. O’Neill, S. Hallegatte, T. Kram, R. Lempert, R. H. Moss, T. J. Wilbanks (2010) Socio-economic scenario development for climate change analysis. CIRED Working Paper DT/WP No. 2010-23
  • K. Tanaka, E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner, G. Hooss, W. Knorr, T. Raddatz (2007) Aggregated carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate model (ACC2). Reports on Earth System Science No. 40, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg.
  • E. Kriegler (2005) Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change. Ph.D. thesis, University of Potsdam, 1-258 p.

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