Dr Jascha Lehmann



Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
T +49 (0)331 288 2652
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam


Jascha Lehmann is a physicist by training and holds a doctorate degree in climate physics from the University of Potsdam in cooperation with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. After his PhD he worked as a scientific research analyst for the director Prof. Schellnhuber and also served as a scientific advisor for science transfer projects with stakeholders in the transport and finance sector. In 2017 Lehmann became co-PI of a junior research group leading the research on droughts and rainfall extremes. In 2019, he joined the interdisciplinary research group led by Dr. Gornott that covers the full impact-chain from weather extremes to agricultural production and food security.

Reliable weather forecasts at subseasonal to seasonal (weeks to months) timescales are urgently needed to provide trustworthy early warnings for agricultural risks. My current research aims to better understand and predict weather extremes in Africa several months before harvest to give stakeholders enough time to react and reduce associated risks. For this I mainly apply novel machine-learning methods such as causal discovery algorithms to find windows of predictability based on physically meaningful teleconnections in the climate system.

Selected publications

[1] Potential for early forecast of Moroccan wheat yields based on climatic drivers, GRL, 46, e2020GL087516, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087516, 2020

[2] Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions, Nature Climate Change, 10 (1), 48-53, 2020

[3] Climate risk analysis for identifying and weighing adaptation strategies in Ghana’s agricultural sector, PIK report for GIZ, 2019

[4] Exploring the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to different surface temperature forcing using a statistical–dynamical atmospheric model, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26 (1), 2019

[5] Increased occurrence of record‐wet and record‐dry months reflect changes in mean rainfall, GRL, 45 (24), 13,468-13,476, 2018

[6] Regional changes in the mean position and variability of the tropical edge, GRL, 45 (21), 12,076-12,084, 2018

[7] A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific, Asian Development Flagship Report, 2017

[8] The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes, Scientific Reports, 5, 17491, 2015

[9] The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, Science, 348 (6232), p.324-327, 2015

[10] Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming, Climatic Change, 2015

Have a look at Google Scholar for a complete list.

Sahel-Early Warning System on Human Security in the Sahel Region: Considering Climate Impacts on Food Security and Farmer–Herder Conflicts