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Tobias Geiger

I quantify the economic impacts of meteorological extreme events and their coeval development under future climate change and socio-economic evolution. My analysis is based on statistical methods and the application of various self-developed models.
Tobias Geiger

Dr. Tobias Geiger

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
Telegrafenberg A56
D-14412 Potsdam


Fields of research

Quantification and projection of impacts by meteorological extreme events (e.g. tropical cyclones, river floods, droughts) under climate change (see project details for EXPACT)

Economic impacts of meteorological extreme events and their integration in integrated assessment models (IAMs) (see project details for ENGAGE and ACCLIMATE)



Record-breaking Atlantic Hurricanes 2017 - see what I and others have to say about their potential damage (1,2,3,4)

Check out our new and freely available data sets on tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT) and historical GDP time series (1850-2009)



  • Expert presentation for the educational PIKeeBB project (2017)
  • Lecturer in Master of Public Health at Charite Berlin / Technical University Berlin (summer term 2017 and 2018)
  • Lecturer at workshop ”Keep the change“, Theodor-Heuss-Akademie, Gummersbach, Germany (January 2017)



  • S. Lange, J. Volkholz, T. Geiger, ..., K. Frieler, "The climate change signal in natural disasters"  (2018) (in review)
  • C. Otto, K. Kuhla, T. Geiger, J. Schewe, and K. Frieler, "Long-term impacts of climate extremes on economic growth: the superlinear dependence of economic recovery on event distribution and insurance penetration" (2018) (to be submitted)
  • T. Geiger, D.N. Bresch, and K. Frieler, "Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature" (2018) (in preparation)
  • T. Geiger, D.N. Bresch, and K. Frieler, "Emulating future tropical cyclone impacts on the country level" (2018) (in preparation)
  • T. Geiger and K. Frieler, "Combined impact of global river floods and tropical cyclones on long-term economic growth" (2018) (in preparation)
  • C. Otto, T. Geiger, K. Frieler, and A. Levermann, "Erosion of the thermobarrier against the European hurricane season under
    unmitigated global warming" (2018) (in preparation)


Peer-reviewed publication

  • S.J. Kim, C. Lim, G. S. Kim, J. Lee, T. Geiger, O. Rahmati, Y. Son, W. Lee: Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire probability using socio-economic and environmental variables, (2019) Remote Sensing (accepted)
  • T. Geiger, "Continuous national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series for 195 countries: past observations (1850-2005) harmonized with future projections according to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2006-2100)", (2018) Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 847-856,, dataset available via
  • Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., and Yamagata, Y., "Assessing the impacts of 1.5  °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321-4345 (2017)
  • T. Geiger, K. Frieler, and A. Levermann, "Reply to Comment on High-income does not protect against hurricane losses", Env. Res. Letters 12 098002 (2017)
  • T. Geiger, K. Frieler, and A. Levermann, "High-income does not protect against hurricane losses",  Env. Res. Letters 11 084012 (2016)
  • T. Geiger, A. Buchleitner, T. Wellens, New Journal of Physics 15 115015 (2013)
  • T. Geiger, T. Wellens, A. Buchleitner, Physical Review Letters 109 030601 (2012)
  • T. Geiger, T. Wellens, V. Shatokhin, A. Buchleitner, Photonics and Nanostructures 8 244-253 (2010)
  • V. Shatokhin, T. Geiger, T. Wellens, A. Buchleitner, Chemical Physics 375 150-162 (2010)
  • T. Wellens, T. Geiger, V. Shatokhin, A. Buchleitner, Physical Review A 82 013832 (2010)


Reports and book chapters


Data sets



T. Geiger (2013) "Inelastic multiple scattering of interacting bosons in weak random potentials"



T. Geiger (2009) "New approach to multiple scattering of intense laser light by cold atoms"


Short CV