Forecast of the Onset date of Indian Summer Monsoon - 2017 over the central part of India

 

In our definition, the onset of monsoon in a particular region of the Indian subcontinent is a date when daily mean values of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcome the tipping point. After this date, the temperature falls abruptly, humidity growth rapidly and then in at least two days monsoon rainfall inevitably come. The tipping point means a critical threshold that we estimated for daily mean near-surface air temperature to be 35.4C and for daily mean relative humidity - 36.5% for the region of our forecast in the current global warming conditions.

Described above conditions cannot appear at a bogus monsoon, therefore our forecast excludes a bogus onset. Nevertheless, if a bogus onset appears prior the forecasted date then the monsoon onset date will shift for the duration of a bogus monsoon. In this case, we will update our forecast.

In our definition, the onset of monsoon in a particular region of the Indian subcontinent is a date when daily mean values of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcome the tipping point. After this date, the temperature falls abruptly, humidity growth rapidly and then in at least two days monsoon rainfall inevitably come. The tipping point means a critical threshold that we estimated for daily mean near-surface air temperature to be 35.4C and for daily mean relative humidity - 36.5% for the region of our forecast in the current global warming conditions.

Described above conditions cannot appear at a bogus monsoon, therefore our forecast excludes a bogus onset. Nevertheless, if a bogus onset appears prior the forecasted date then the monsoon onset date will shift for the duration of a bogus monsoon. In this case, we will update our forecast.