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Global Land Use scenarios and modeling analyses
December 2012 until February 2015
35.700 € funded by Greenpeace: Research and Development Contract
Beringer, Tim

1)Map out and evaluate key existing global land use modeling initiatives. 2)Develop and construct 2 global land use scenarios for 2050 based on parameters (such as diet, type of agriculture, degree of nature conservation) and (two) different assumptions for them in order to simulate the effects of of different land uses and ongoing climate change on the global land biosphere until 2050. 3)The 2 scenarios (and detailed assumptions on which they are based) are a) business as usual (BAU) as reference scenario and b) equitable planetary boundaries (EPB) as optimum scenario from a social, biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation and adaptation point of view where planetary boundaries are respected and resulting available resources equitably shared. 4)Define and agree assumptions with customer. 5)Perform LPJmL model runs for pilot BAU and EPB scenarios. 6)Revise assumptions based on pilot results and agree them with customer. 7)Perform LPJmL model runs with revised scenarios, analyse results and discuss with customer, compile project report. 8)Preparation of final report that summarizes the projects main findings and conclusions and describes how they relate to other scenarios of future global land use change.