Science Platform for Climate Protection submits report to German government
02/18/2022 - Today, the Science Platform on Climate Protection' delivered its first annual report to the German government. Sabine Schlacke, Director of the Institute for Energy, Environmental and Maritime Law at the University of Greifswald, and economist Ottmar Edenhofer, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, presented the group's insights at the Federal Press Conference. Their recommendations were well received by Federal Research Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger and the State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate, Patrick Graichen.
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Rainy days harm the economy
01/12/2022 - Economic growth goes down when the number of wet days and days with extreme rainfall go up, a team of Potsdam scientists finds. Rich countries are most severely affected and herein the manufacturing and service sectors, according to their study now published as cover story in the renowned science journal Nature. The data analysis of more than 1.500 regions over the past 40 years shows a clear connection and suggests that intensified daily rainfall driven by climate-change from burning oil and coal will harm the global economy.
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Climate policy: How to protect emissions trading from excessive financial speculation
12/15/2021 - CO2 emissions trading – a key element of EU climate policy – can be protected from distortions driven by financial speculators, a new report shows. The price for CO2 emissions allowances in the EU cap-and-trade scheme has almost tripled in the course of this year, and is now subject to unprecedented volatility levels. Financial speculation is increasingly blamed for this price rally, but evidence is lacking whether this can actually endanger the functioning of the trading system for the most relevant greenhouse gas. The researchers propose tools to detect speculation, evidence a substantial risk from a new breed of investors, and suggest improvements for market oversight.
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Postdoc Award of the State of Brandenburg for Björn Sörgel
12/02/2021 - PIK scientist Björn Sörgel has received the 2021 Postdoc Award of the State of Brandenburg in the category Humanities and Social Sciences. The award recognizes his work on jointly addressing two of the most pressing global issues of our time - the mitigation of climate change and the eradication of extreme poverty. It is awarded by the state of Brandenburg in recognition of excellent research achievements by outstanding young scientists from universities and non-university research institutions.
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Accelerated renewables-based electrification paves the way for a post-fossil future: study
11/25/2021 - Cost-slashing innovations are underway in the electric power sector and could give electricity the lead over fossil-based combustion fuels in the world’s energy supply by mid-century. When combined with a global carbon price, these developments can catalyse emission reductions to reach the Paris climate targets, while reducing the need for controversial negative emissions, a new study finds.
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COP26: PIK experts in Glasgow
11/03/2021 - Several experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research will be on site at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, to contribute their scientific expertise. We collected some highlight events with PIK researchers organizing or participating.
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The Ripple Factor: Economic losses from weather extremes can amplify each other across the world
27/10/2021 - Weather extremes can cause economic ripples along our supply chains. If they occur at roughly the same time the ripples start interacting and can amplify even if they occur at completely different places around the world, a new study shows. The resulting economic losses are greater than the sum of the initial events, the researchers find in computer simulations of the global economic network. Rich economies are affected much stronger than poor ones, according to the calculations. Currently, weather extremes around the world are increasing due to greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. If they happen simultaneously or in quick succession even at different places on the planet, their economic repercussions can become much bigger than previously thought.
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Less trade-offs, more synergies: New pathway to mitigate climate change and boost progress on UN Sustainable Development Goals
08/02/2021 - A world that combats climate change while simultaneously improving on all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is possible, a new study finds. Scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the German Development Institute have developed a new integrated strategy that combines ambitious climate action with dedicated policies for development, food and energy access, global and national equity, and environmental sustainability. It sheds new light on bottlenecks, but also synergies for boosting progress towards climate and sustainable development targets.
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New economic model shows how our social networks could contribute to generating phenomena like inequality and business cycles
07/05/2021 - Many standard economic models assume people make perfectly rational, individual decisions. But new research suggests economic phenomena like inequality and business cycles are better explained by models which recognize that people’s decisions are affected by the decisions and the behaviors of people around them.
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Smart transfer rules can strengthen EU climate policy
06/25/2021 - Brussels sets ambitious targets with the European Green Deal, so how can we ensure that all member states go along with them? An economic study on decision-making in groups of states gives us clues.
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Limiting climate risks for finance: Central banks and science publish scenarios
06/07/2021 - To improve climate related risk management in the financial sector and facilitate a smooth transition toward a sustainable economy, over 90 central banks and financial market supervisors organized in the Network for Greening the Financial System joined forces with science. Together, researchers and financial experts now published an updated set of scenarios of an orderly transition, delayed transition, and climate policy failure. They show how early greenhouse gas emissions reductions can minimize both physical and financial risk. In contrast, delayed action or no action would inevitably drive up costs in the medium to long term. The analysis provides sectoral and regional detail to help financial institutions adapt their investment strategies.
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Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1.5°C
05/14/2021 - Of the over 400 climate scenarios assessed in the 1.5°C report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), only around 50 scenarios avoid significantly overshooting 1.5°C. Of those only around 20 make realistic assumptions on mitigation options, for instance the rate and scale of carbon removal from the atmosphere or extent of tree planting, a new study shows. All 20 scenarios need to pull at least one mitigation lever at "challenging" rather than "reasonable" levels, according to the analysis. Hence the world faces a high degree of risk of overstepping the 1.5°C limit. The realistic window for meeting the 1.5°C target is very rapidly closing.
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Hydrogen instead of electrification? Potentials and risks for climate targets
05/06/2021 - Hydrogen-based fuels should primarily be used in sectors such as aviation or industrial processes that cannot be electrified, finds a team of researchers. Producing these fuels is too inefficient, costly and their availability too uncertain, to broadly replace fossil fuels for instance in cars or heating houses. For most sectors, directly using electricity for instance in battery electric cars or heat pumps makes more economic sense. Universally relying on hydrogen-based fuels instead and keeping combustion technologies threatens to lock in a further fossil fuel dependency and greenhouse gas emissions.
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RD2 Beitrag über die rolle einer demokratischen Konfliktkultur auf Berliner Energietage
06/04/2021 - Populistische Parteien und Akteure haben den Kampf gegen die Energiewende als ein Thema für sich entdeckt und versuchen diese als "Elitenprojekt" zu diffamieren. In diesem Session, moderiert durch RD2 Wissenschaftler Seraja Bock, sprechen Expert*innen über diese populistischen Akteuren, wie sie auf das Prozess Einfluss nehmen und was eine demokratische Konfliktkultur dem entgegen setzen könnte.
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The new EU climate target will increase carbon prices and could phase out coal power in Europe as early as 2030
04/27/2021 - Tightening the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) in line with the EU Green Deal would dramatically speed up the decarbonization of Europe's power sector – and likely cause a demise of the coal industry. In a new study a team of researchers from Potsdam, Germany has quantified the substantial shifts Europe's electricity system is about to undergo when the newly decided EU climate target gets implemented. Higher carbon prices, the authors show, are not only an inevitable step to cut emissions – they will also lead much faster to an inexpensive electricity system powered by renewable energies.
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Data-based analysis of climate decisions
How do we – individually and as a society – respond to a changing climatic environment and extreme weather events?
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Solar panels are contagious - but in a good way: study
04/21/2021 - The number of solar panels within shortest distance from a house is the most important factor in determining the likelihood of that house having a solar panel, when compared with a host of socio-economic and demographic variables. This is shown in a new study by scientists using satellite and census data of the city of Fresno in the US, and employing machine learning. Although it is known that peer effects are relevant for sustainable energy choices, very high-resolution data combined with artificial intelligence techniques were necessary to single out the paramount importance of proximity. The finding is relevant for policies that aim at a broad deployment of solar panels in order to replace unsustainable fossil fueled energy generation.
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Erratic weather slows down the economy
02/08/2021 - If temperature varies strongly from day to day, the economy grows less. Through these seemingly small variations climate change may have strong effects on economic growth. This shows data analyzed by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Columbia University and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC). In a new study in Nature Climate Change, they juxtapose observed daily temperature changes with economic data from more than 1,500 regions worldwide over 40 years – with startling results.
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Coal and COVID-19: How the pandemic is accelerating the end of fossil power generation
02/08/2021 - COVID-19 has not only caused a temporary drop in global CO2 emissions, it has also reduced the share of power generated by burning coal – a trend that could in fact outlast the pandemic. This is the key result of a new study by a team of economists based in Potsdam and Berlin that looked at COVID-19's impact on the energy system and demand for electricity. Their findings show that the pandemic, while putting a terrible toll on people’s lives and the economy, has also opened a window of opportunity to make this current trend of decreasing coal use irreversible: Supported by the right climate policy measures, power sector emissions could decline more rapidly than previously thought.
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New hope for the climate: Edenhofer & Rockström on Biden US Presidency
01/26/2021 - The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) puts hope in the start of Joe Biden's presidency after climate topics have been rather neglected for the last four years of from US side. PIK Director Ottmar Edenhofer explores the concept of carbon pricing as a possible tool for the new US administration and Johan Rockström, Director of PIK along with Ottmar Edenhofer, signed a global ambition letter together with known CEO'S - from Amazon to Ford Motor Company - and world climate leaders, calling on US President Joe Biden to be the climate leader that science demands.
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PIK STATEMENT on the EU climate target and on the Paris Agreement's 5th anniversary
12/11/2020 - Today, the European Council adopted the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. On 12 December, the historic Paris climate agreement has its 5th anniversary of being adopted by representatives of more than 196 countries plus the EU at the UN climate summit COP21.
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CO2 pricing and financial transfers: small changes can have a huge effect on climate equity
12/09/2020 - Global greenhouse-gas emission reductions could be achieved in a fair and thrifty way by surprisingly small variations of well-known policies. This is shown by a team of economists in a quantitative study now published in Nature. Differentiated CO2 prices in different countries combined with moderate financial transfers from advanced to developing countries would do the job. These changes would be most efficient in achieving fair burden sharing and at the same time keep overall costs in check, the researchers find. This could solve the epic trilemma to unite cost-efficiency, national sovereignty and fair effort-sharing.
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New study: CO2 price of 100 euros could find acceptance - if the revenue is refunded
12/07/2020 - In January a CO2 price for the traffic and heating sector will be introduced in Germany for the first time. Initially it will amount to 25 euros per ton of CO2, but will rise to 55 euros by 2025. But in order to meet climate targets by 2030 significantly higher prices are necessary.
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US Presidentials results: "Unprecedented opportunity to lock in climate stabilization"
11/08/2020 - According to media reports Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have defeated Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections. This can have substantial relevance for international climate pathways. On this issue, statements by the two scientific Directors of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, economist Ottmar Edenhofer and Earth system scientist Johan Rockström.
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"System Transformation": #RaceToZero UNFCCC pre-COP26 event
11/04/2020 - The #RaceToZero dialogues on how to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions kick off on Monday, 9th of November, organized by UNFCCC and COP26 world climate summit team. The Club of Rome and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research are joining forces to host the opening session on “Systems Transformation” - for a new resilience agenda for people, planet, prosperity. With presentations by Johan Rockström (Director of PIK) and Sandrine Dixson-Declève (Co-President of The Club of Rome) as well as a high-level panel discussion, this online event introduces all participants to ten days filled with keynotes, showcases and High-Level Champions all combined for a systemic transformation to reach the climate stabilization goals of the Paris Agreement.
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"Climate has reached a global crisis point": PIK Director Joins TED Countdown
10/15/2020 - “We Can Change Climate Change” – this is the slogan of TED Countdown, a year-long initiative by scientists, artists, government officials and activists to collectively develop concrete ideas for a cleaner future. PIK Director Johan Rockström contributed with an engaging and energizing video statement.
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Biggest CO2 drop: Real-time data shows Covid-19’s massive impact on global emissions
10/14/2020 - While the ongoing Corona pandemic continues to threaten millions of lives around the world, the first half of 2020 saw an unprecedented decline in CO2 emissions – larger than during the financial crisis of 2008, the oil crisis of 1979, or even World War II. An international team of researchers has found that in the first six months of this year, 8.8 percent less carbon dioxide were emitted than in the same period in 2019 – a total decrease of 1551 million tonnes. The groundbreaking study not only offers a much more precise look at COVID-19’s impact on global energy consumption than previous analyses. It also suggests what fundamental steps could be taken to stabilize the global climate in the aftermath of the pandemic.
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Edenhofer awarded with most prestigious environmental prize
09/02/2020 - This year’s "Umweltpreis" – the most prestigious environmental prize in Germany – goes to Ottmar Edenhofer. Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt honours the Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK, member of Leibniz Association), and of the Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), for his groundbreaking work namely in the field of carbon pricing. The award will be presented to Edenhofer by the German head of state, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on 25 October in Hanover.
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Heating our climate damages our economies – study reveals greater costs than expected
08/19/2020 - Rising temperatures due to our greenhouse gas emissions can cause greater damages to our economies than previous research suggested, a new study shows. Scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) took a closer look at what climate change does to regions at the sub-national level, such as US states, Chinese provinces or French départements, based on a first-of-its-kind dataset by MCC. If CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are not reduced rapidly, a global warming of 4°C until 2100 can make that regions lose almost 10% of economic output on average and more than 20% in the tropics.
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